The paper investigates EU banks’ profitability through the recent financial cycle using banklevel balance sheet and income statement data. We find that banks that were more successful at protecting their profits had a less pronounced deterioration in loan quality and a larger improvement in cost efficiency. They also downsized their assets more aggressively during the crisis, and reduced reliance on wholesale funding more markedly post-crisis. Net interest margins remained broadly stable over the financial cycle, including post-crisis, and there is no clear evidence that aspects of bank business model, such as higher reliance on fees and commission income, were associated with better profitability post-crisis.

Slower passthrough of policy interest rate hikes to deposit rates relative to their loan rates has led to sharply wider bank net interest margins. Combined with resilient asset quality, wider net interest margins supported record profits for European banks in 2023. Drawing on historical data from the balance sheets and income statements of over 2,500 European banks, this paper shows that abnormally high profits are expected to fade soon as interest income will decline, once policy rates start being lowered, while higher impairment costs historically have weighed on profits with a lag. Moreover, a number of structural factors that have eroded the performance of European banks in the past two decades have largely remained unaddressed and will continue being a drag on profits and capital. Therefore, policymakers should encourage banks to preserve capital buffers and build resilience to future shocks, while exercising caution when considering taxes on profits or other measures that could divert potential sources of capital from banks.

This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability.

Emerging markets are increasingly facing significant challenges, from a slowdown in productivity, rising debt, and trade tensions to the adverse effects of proliferating global uncertainty on domestic financial systems. This incisive Handbook examines the ongoing dynamics of global financial markets and institutions within the context of such rising uncertainty and provides a comprehensive overview of innovative models in banking and finance.

Thinking beyond pandemic capitalism The health emergency that broke out in 2020 is a landmark event in the development of capitalism, confirming the underlying change signalled by the Great Crisis of 2007-9. The pandemic has catapulted the state to the centre of economic activity. However, a historic impasse is steadily becoming apparent at the core of the world economy Productive accumulation is flaccid, as both profitability and labour productivity are weak. Financialisation has entered a new phase, as “shadow banking” grew relative to other banks but is entirely dependent on the state. The power of the state derives from command over fiat money and can certainly deliver enormous boosts to aggregate demand, but that is not enough to tackle the weakness of the productive sector. The rise in inflation for the first time in forty years indicates the impasse. There is a transparent need for intervention on the supply side, directly challenging capitalist property rights. There is no evidence, however, that the ruling blocs in core countries would engage in such policies. The pandemic crisis also brought to the fore fresh divisions of core and periphery across the world economy. Imperialism has assumed new forms, spurred by globally active financial capital and internationalised productive capital. A renewed contest for hegemony has emerged as US power declined. The economic challenge of China will unfold steadily in the years ahead, intensifying political tensions and military rivalries. This book is the work of a research collective comprising authors from several parts of the world. It analyses these vital issues from the perspective of Marxist political economy and puts forth alternative anticapitalist proposals.

This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based interconnected analysis, contingent claims analysis, and a brief discussion of data gaps in the nonbank, non-insurance (NBNI) financial sector. The ongoing economic recovery will support euro area bank profitability in general, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural challenges faced by the least profitable banks despite some recent improvements. This is important because persistently weak bank profitability is a systemic financial stability concern. Empirical analysis of 109 major euro area banks over 2007–2016 reveals that real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are the most reliable determinants of profitability, after accounting for other factors. Although higher growth would raise profits, a large swath of banks with the weakest profitability would most likely continue to struggle even with a robust recovery. Therefore, banks should take advantage of the current upswing by resolutely addressing their NPL stocks—such a strategy holds the most promise for weak banks’ profitability prospects.

This paper argues that better governance practices can reduce the costs, risks and uncertainty of financial intermediation. Our sample covers high-, middle- and low-income countries before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that net interest margins of banks are lower if various governance indicators are better. More cross-border lending also appears conducive to lower intermediation costs, while the level of capital market development is not significant. The GFC seems not to have had a strong impact except via credit risk. Finally, we estimate the size of potential gains from improved governance.

In a favorable global conjuncture, France has benefitted from a broad-based recovery last year, with robust growth and improving labor market trends, which have led to a decline in the fiscal deficit below 3 percent of GDP last year. But structural challenges persist, with still high unemployment, weak competitiveness, and high private and public debt burdens, which are hampering economic performance.

German bank profitability is low by international standards. Although German banks rank more favorably in risk-adjusted terms, as low profitability is partially compensated by lower volatility of returns, their profitability ratios remain low. On other measures (such as returns on assets, equity, and risk-weighted assets), German banks, on aggregate, rank among the least profitable in Europe. Several factors affect bank profitability, including a complex tiered industry structure with barriers to entry and an explicit mandate of a large part of the banking system – cooperative and savings banks – to maximize welfare of stakeholders rather than profits.

This book investigates the role of banking interest groups and lobbying in the making of the European Banking Union. Facing the politicization of financial regulation in the wake of the crisis, core players of the European banking industry managed to adapt and re-orient their lobbying resources and strategies to influence the reform process. This work advances an original Critical IPE approach, which combines structural power, the collective agency of key socio-economic groups and the issue salience as critical determinants to explain corporate influence in policy-making. The explanatory framework is applied to a comprehensive analysis, tracing the Banking Union’s development within the broader context of the EU post-crisis banking regulation. An in-depth scrutiny of the interest groups’ preferences, coalitions and attainments is thus provided on the pillars of the Banking Union, covering banking supervision, resolution, deposit insurance, as well as the reform of the banks’ prudential requirements and the failed project of an EU banking structural reform.