Using a mixed methods approach, this book examines the role played by regional organisations (ROs) following the occurrence of a coup d’état. It analyses which factors influence the strength of reactions demonstrated by ROs and explores which different post-coup solutions ROs pursue.

The paper explores the drivers of political fragility by focusing on coups d’état as symptomatic of such fragility. It uses event studies to identify factors that exhibit significantly different dynamics in the runup to coups, and machine learning to identify these stressors and more structural determinants of fragility—as well as their nonlinear interactions—that create an environment propitious to coups. The paper finds that the destabilization of a country’s economic, political or security environment—such as low growth, high inflation, weak external positions, political instability and conflict—set the stage for a higher likelihood of coups, with overlapping stressors amplifying each other. These stressors are more likely to lead to breakdowns in political systems when demographic pressures and underlying structural weaknesses (especially poverty, exclusion, and weak governance) are present or when policies are weaker, through complex interactions. Conversely, strengthened fundamentals and macropolicies have higher returns in structurally fragile environments in terms of staving off political breakdowns, suggesting that continued engagement by multilateral institutions and donors in fragile situations is likely to yield particularly high dividends. The model performs well in predicting coups out of sample, having predicted a high probability of most 2020-23 coups, including in the Sahel region.

Soldiers rebel when leaders attempt to build or dismantle ethnic armies, posing a deep challenge to contemporary democratization efforts.

This book examines the responsibility of judges of domestic courts following unconstitutional usurpation of power of government (coups d’état). It explores judges’ liability for failing to discharge their judicial duty independently and impartially, and the criminality of usurpers and their accomplices and collaborators for their violation of fundamental rights and freedoms or commission of crimes of international concern. Written by a highly regarded non-Western author, the book is coherent and meticulously researched, covering an approach to coups in an insightful and fascinating fashion. It includes a sophisticated and thorough analysis of the relevant comparative jurisprudence of domestic and international courts, with concrete examples of the best practices among decisions of domestic courts in countries that have experienced coups d’état. With an increasing global interest in the phenomenon of coups, democratic backsliding and the place and role of the judiciary as the only hope to rein in acts of unconstitutional usurpation of power, the book will be essential reading for members of the legal profession, those cherishing democracy as well as students and researchers in constitutional law, law and political science, public international law, international human rights law, international criminal law, regime changes, transitional justice and international organizations.

Under the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey has descended into a dictatorship, promotes the Islamist agenda, abuses human rights, limits freedom of expression in the press, and wages war against the Kurds. While Turkey has historically been important geopolitically, it has become an outlier in Europe and an uncertain ally of the United States. An Uncertain Ally is a straightforward indictment of Erdogan. Drawing on inside sources in his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the police, the book reveals corruption and money laundering schemes that benefitted Erdogan, his cronies, and family members. Erdogan has polarized Turkish society and created conditions that led to the coup attempt of July 2016. He has also deepened divisions by accusing Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic teacher in Pennsylvania, of establishing a parallel state and masterminding the coup attempt. Erdogan has seized on the failed coup to justify a witch hunt, arresting thousands and ordering the wholesale dismissal of alleged coup sympathizers. Rather than foster reconciliation, he pursued vendettas and turned Turkey into a gulag. An Uncertain Ally exposes Turkey’s ties to jihadists in Syria and the Islamic State, questioning its suitability as a NATO member. Under Erdogan, Turkey faces a dark future that poses a danger to the region and internationally.

The essays in this volume explore several key issues facing democracies today. They discuss the dilemma of how to protect civil liberties and individual freedoms in the light of external threats and assess the policies adopted by governments in this area. The book also addresses the question of how free, exactly, free markets should be in an economy in order to secure social peace, before going on to highlight the rudiments of the model of social market economy, as applied in Germany. It examines the problem of the democratic and legitimacy deficits that beset European integration and suggests reforms for a more democratic European Union. Last but not least, by looking back in history, they provide evidence and propose policies for the revitalization of institutions in present-day democracies. The book is of considerable interest to researchers and students in economics and political science, as well as to readers who wish to gain insights into the thorny social issues involved.