Three centuries ago Montmort and De Moivre published two books on probability theory emphasizing its most important application at that time, games of chance. This book, on the probabilistic aspects of gambling, is a modern version of those classics.

In the year 1716 Abraham de Moivre published his Doctrine of Chances, in which the subject of Mathematical Probability took several long strides forward. A few years later came his Treatise of Annuities. When the third (and final) edition of the Doctrine was published in 1756 it appeared in one volume together with a revised edition of the work on Annuities. It is this latter two-volumes-in-one that is presented here in an exact photographic reprint, with a series of problems of progressive interest, followed by full solutions and an afterword by H.M. Walker.

First Published in 1967. In the year 1716 Abraham de Moivre published his Doctrine of Chances, in which the subject of Mathematical Probability took several long strides forward. Includes a series of problems of progressive interest, followed by full solutions and an afterword by H.M. Walker.

Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions. This rule, together with the idea of "weights of evidence," leads to both an extensive new theory and a better understanding of the Bayesian theory. The book concludes with a brief treatment of statistical inference and a discussion of the limitations of epistemic probability. Appendices contain mathematical proofs, which are relatively elementary and seldom depend on mathematics more advanced that the binomial theorem.

Probability theory and its applications represent a discipline of fun damental importance to nearly all people working in the high-tech nology world that surrounds us. There is increasing awareness that we should ask not "Is it so?" but rather "What is the probability that it is so?" As a result, most colleges and universities require a course in mathematical probability to be given as part of the undergraduate training of all scientists, engineers, and mathematicians. This book is a text for a first course in the mathematical theory of probability for undergraduate students who have the prerequisite of at least two, and better three, semesters of calculus. In particular, the student must have a good working knowledge of power series expan sions and integration. Moreover, it would be helpful if the student has had some previous exposure to elementary probability theory, either in an elementary statistics course or a finite mathematics course in high school or college. If these prerequisites are met, then a good part of the material in this book can be covered in a semester (IS-week) course that meets three hours a week.