Global trade in agricultural and food products has grown rapidly in recent decades, with countries becoming more engaged in this trade, whether as exporters or importers. This trend is expected to continue over the coming decades. As a consequence, trade will play an increasingly important role in influencing the extent and nature of food security across all regions of the globe. The challenge has therefore become one of ensuring that the expansion of agricultural trade works for, and not against, the elimination of hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition. This edition of The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets aims to reduce the current polarization of views on the impacts of agricultural trade on food security and on the manner in which agricultural trade should be governed to ensure that increased trade openness is beneficial to all countries. By providing evidence and clarity on a range of topics, the report seeks to contribute to a more informed debate on policy choices and to identify required improvements in the policy processes within which these choices are made.

Global agricultural trade has increased significantly in value terms since 2000. Its pattern has also changed – emerging economies and developing countries play a bigger role in international markets, and South–South agricultural trade has expanded significantly. Climate change is expected to affect agriculture, food security and nutrition unevenly across countries and regions. Changes in comparative advantage in agriculture around the world will also affect international trade. This edition of The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets focuses on the complex and underexplored intersection between agricultural trade, climate change and food security. The report makes an important contribution to the policy debates on climate change adaptation and mitigation under the Paris Agreement and the multilateral agricultural trade rules. The report discusses policies – both domestic support and trade measures – that can promote food security, adaptation and mitigation, and improve the livelihoods of family farmers around the world. Given both the slow- and rapid-onset impacts of climate change, policies that can significantly promote climate change adaptation and mitigation would benefit from deeper discussions in international fora on how to strengthen the mutually supportive role of trade rules and climate interventions.

Africa is not on track to meeting the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 targets to end hunger and ensure access by all people to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round and to end all forms of malnutrition. The number of hungry people on the continent has risen by 47.9 million since 2014 and now stands at 250.3 million, or nearly one-fifth of the population. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 editions of this report explain that this gradual deterioration of food security was due to conflict, weather extremes, and economic slowdowns and downturns, often overlapping. A continued worsening of food security is expected also for 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to hunger, across all countries in Africa millions of people suffer from widespread micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity are emerging as significant health concerns in many countries. This report shows that the food system in Africa does not provide food at a cost that makes nutritious food affordable to a majority of the population, and this is reflected in the high disease burden associated with maternal and child malnutrition, high body-mass, micronutrient deficiencies and dietary risk factors. The report also shows that current food consumption patterns impose high health and environmental costs, which are not reflected in food prices. The findings presented in this report highlight the importance of prioritizing the transformation of food systems to ensure access to affordable and healthy diets for all, produced in a sustainable manner.

The African agricultural and food market is expanding quickly as indicated by World Bank projections that show that the value of Africa’s agriculture and agribusiness industry is expected to more than triple to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030, compared to 2010 (World Bank, 2013). This provides an opportunity to not only boost trade in food and non-food agricultural commodities and services within the continent but also enhance food security in Africa. Regional integration is also gaining momentum as evidenced by progress in the creation of customs unions and the initial steps in setting up a common external tariff at the regional level in a number of regional economic communities (RECs) such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further reinforces the gains achieved in regional integration and opens new market opportunities for farmers and other economic operators.It has been shown that the export of higher value-added products made in Africa is greater in regional markets than in external markets outside Africa, which are typically dominated by raw material exports. However, more than a decade after the adoption of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) in Maputo in 2003 by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) in response to the stagnation of African agriculture, Africa continues to remain a marginal player, accounting for only 2.7 percent of world trade in goods and 5 percent of world agricultural trade (Bouët and Odjo, 2019).These figures are likely to trend downwards significantly in the near term due to the economic shock caused by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The continent currently depends to a significant degree on extra-African sources for imports of food and agricultural products. The share of intra-African agricultural trade has been consistently below 20 percent in recent decades (Bouët and Odjo, 2019; AGRA, 2019). Comparable figures for intraregional agricultural trade are higher for Asia and Europe (more than 60 percent).

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2022 (SOCO 2022) discusses how trade policies, based on both multilateral and regional approaches, can address today’s challenges for sustainable development. Trade policies in food and agriculture should aim to safeguard global food security, address the trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and strengthen the resilience of the global agrifood system to shocks, such as conflicts, pandemics and extreme weather. The report discusses the geography of trade, analysing food and agricultural trade and its patterns across countries and regions, its drivers and the trade policy environment. Comparative advantage, trade policies and trade costs shape the patterns of trade in food and agriculture. When comparative advantage plays out in the global market, trade benefits all countries. Lowering tariff barriers and reducing trade costs can promote trade and economic growth. Both multilateral and regional trade agreements can facilitate the process of making trade an avenue for growth but the gains of trade are distributed unevenly. When global environmental impacts, such as climate change, are considered, a multilateral approach to trade can help expand the reach of mitigation measures.

South-South Cooperation (SSC) is increasingly recognized as an effective instrument for catalyzing economic development by fostering the exchange of innovation and good practices, and expanding market opportunities across countries with a similar level of development and shared development objectives, such as those reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Key to this economic cooperation are trade and investment relationships among South countries. The importance of South countries in global agrifood markets and trade has been increasing over the last two decades, with growth in their participation, as both exporters and importers, having outpaced that of North countries. Agricultural productivity growth has fueled expansion in the production of some products, while population growth and urbanization, rapid economic growth and increasing per capita incomes have contributed to growing demand for diverse food products.

This year’s report should dispel any lingering doubts that the world is moving backwards in its efforts to end hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition in all its forms. We are now only eight years away from 2030, but the distance to reach many of the SDG 2 targets is growing wider each year. There are indeed efforts to make progress towards SDG 2, yet they are proving insufficient in the face of a more challenging and uncertain context. The intensification of the major drivers behind recent food insecurity and malnutrition trends (i.e. conflict, climate extremes and economic shocks) combined with the high cost of nutritious foods and growing inequalities will continue to challenge food security and nutrition. This will be the case until agrifood systems are transformed, become more resilient and are delivering lower cost nutritious foods and affordable healthy diets for all, sustainably and inclusively.

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2020 (SOCO 2020) aims to discuss policies and mechanisms that promote sustainable outcomes – economic, social and environmental – in agricultural and food markets, both global and domestic. The analysis is organized along the trends and challenges that lie at the heart of global discussions on trade and development. These include the evolution of trade and markets; the emergence of global value chains in food and agriculture; the extent to which smallholder farmers in developing countries participate in value chains and markets; and the transformative impacts of digital technology on markets. Along these themes, SOCO 2020 discusses policies and institutions that can promote inclusive economic growth and also harness markets to contribute towards the realization of the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals.

This publication provides a list of food system-based intervention options to improve nutrition and a set concrete entry points for maximizing the impact of each intervention. Developed through leveraging different expertise in FAO, it is a key resource to assist professionals involved in different areas - from breeding to production; from food transformation and packaging to transportation and trade; from marketing and value chain to food safety; from food labelling to consumer education - to u nderstand the linkages with nutrition, and to increase their contribution for a world free from malnutrition in all its forms.

This book features a comprehensive foresight assessment, exploring the pressures — threats as well as opportunities — on the global agriculture & food systems between now and 2050. The overarching aim is to help readers understand the context, by analyzing global trends and anticipating change for better planning and constructing pathways from the present to the future by focusing on the right questions and problems. The book contextualizes the role of international agricultural research in addressing the complex challenges posed by UN 2030 Agenda and beyond, and identifies the decisions that scientific leaders, donors and policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more combined with rising incomes and changing diets can be fed sustainably and equitably, in the face of the growing climate threats.