One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.

How do borders affect trade? Are cultural and institutional differences important for trade? Is environmental policy relevant to trade? How does one's income or wage relate to the fact that trade partners are nearby or far away? These are just some of the important questions that can be answered using the gravity model of international trade. This model predicts and explains bilateral trade flows in terms of the economic size and distance between trading partners (e.g. states, regions, countries, trading blocs). In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in this model and it is now one of the most widely applied tools in applied international economics. This book traces the history of the gravity model and takes stock of recent methodological and theoretical advances, including new approximations for multilateral trade resistance, insightful analyses of the measurement of economic distance and analyses of foreign direct investment.

This is the 2004 (Volume 51) Special Issue of IMF Staff Papers, which includes 6 selected papers (from more than 20) that were presented at the IMF's Fourth Annual Research Conference, November 6-7, 2003.

This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.

The Group of Seven Industrialized Countries, G7 developed a new doctrine of international supervision and regulation of financial markets. The G7 instructed international financial institution such as the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, the World Bank and the Multilateral Development Banks to tighten their supervision and regulation of international finance. This volume examines this doctrine sometimes known as the 'New Architecture of the International Financial System' or IFA. Strengthening of the international financial system never ends and there have been recurring vulnerabilities in international financial architecture. The book examines current practices and its consequences and how the IFA has evolved and its alternatives. The book draws upon academic knowledge, practitioner techniques in financial risk management and official doctrine to analyze how investors, creditors and debts function within the new architecture.

The structure and policy architecture of the world economy, as it emerges from the historic challenges now underway, will be affected by the dramatic rise of Asian economies and deepening connections among them. This important book examines the dramatic transformation of the Asian economy, the challenges it faces, emerging regional solutions, and how Asia can play a more constructive role in the global economy. Asia is becoming not just the world's factory, but also its leading creditor, and one of its key sources of dynamism and stability. Key questions are identified and addressed in three areas: Asia's growth and productivity, financial stability, and regional economic integration. In each of these areas, the contributing authors evaluate current trends and the forces shaping the future. They consider whether the regions progress is sustainable and what it will take to make it so. How is Asia reshaping its economy in response to the changing global landscape? More urgently, how can Asia weather the severe, global financial and economic stormoriginating from the global credit crisis? How will it extend its gains to people left behind? And how can it contribute to better governance and greater prosperity in the world economy? This book covers new ground by connecting theory, assembling detailed evidence on trends and challenges, and offering forwardlooking policy prescriptions. This timely book will appeal to Asian economic policymakers as well as postgraduate students interested in Asian economics, international economics and regional integration. Staff of international and regional organizations interested in Asian economics will also find this book invaluable.

This paper analyses the nature of the increasing regionalization process in global banking. Despite the large decline in aggregate cross-border banking lending volumes, some parts of the global banking network are currently more interlinked regionally than before the Global Financial Crisis. After developing a simple theoretical model capturing banks' internationalization decisions, our estimation shows that this regionalization trend is present even after controlling for traditional gravitational variables (e.g. distance, language, legal system, etc.), especially among lenders in EMs and non-core banking systems, such as Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Moreover, this regionalization trend was present before the GFC, but it has increased since then, and it seems to be associated with regulatory variables and the opportunities created by the retrenchment of several European lenders.

We analyze the joint impact of macroprudential and capital control measures on cross-border banking flows, while controlling for multidimensional aspects in lender-and-borrower-relationships (e.g., distance, cultural proximity, microprudential regulations). We uncover interesting spillover effects from both types of measures when applied either by lender or borrowing countries, with many of them most likely associated with circumvention or arbitrage incentives. While lender countries’ macroprudential policies reduce direct cross-border banking outflows, they are associated with larger outflows through local affiliates. Direct cross-border inflows are higher in borrower countries with more usage of macroprudential policies, and are linked to circumvention motives. In the case of capital controls, most spillovers seem to be present through local affiliates. We do not find evidence to support the idea that additional capital inflow controls could interact with macro-prudential policies to mitigate cross-border spillovers.

How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the cross-border context. We use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically significant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel.