Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers.

Intended for researchers and practitioners in interaction design, this book shows how Bayesian models can be brought to bear on problems of interface design and user modelling. It introduces and motivates Bayesian modelling and illustrates how powerful these ideas can be in thinking about human-computer interaction, especially in representing and manipulating uncertainty. Bayesian methods are increasingly practical as computational tools to implement them become more widely available, and offer a principled foundation to reason about interaction design. The book opens with a self-contained tutorial on Bayesian concepts and their practical implementation, tailored for the background and needs of interaction designers. The contributed chapters cover the use of Bayesian probabilistic modelling in a diverse set of applications, including improving pointing-based interfaces; efficient text entry using modern language models; advanced interface design using cutting-edge techniques in Bayesian optimisation; and Bayesian approaches to modelling the cognitive processes of users.

Advancements in Bayesian Methods and Implementation, Volume 47 in the Handbook of Statistics series, highlights new advances in the field, with this new volume presenting interesting chapters on a variety of timely topics, including Fisher Information, Cramer-Rao and Bayesian Paradigm, Compound beta binomial distribution functions, MCMC for GLMMS, Signal Processing and Bayesian, Mathematical theory of Bayesian statistics where all models are wrong, Machine Learning and Bayesian, Non-parametric Bayes, Bayesian testing, and Data Analysis with humans, Variational inference or Functional horseshoe, Generalized Bayes. - Provides the authority and expertise of leading contributors from an international board of authors - Presents the latest release in the Handbook of Statistics series - Updated release includes the latest information on Advancements in Bayesian Methods and Implementation

To date, statistics has tended to be neatly divided into two theoretical approaches or frameworks: frequentist (or classical) and Bayesian. Scientists typically choose the statistical framework to analyse their data depending on the nature and complexity of the problem, and based on their personal views and prior training on probability and uncertainty. Although textbooks and courses should reflect and anticipate this dual reality, they rarely do so. This accessible textbook explains, discusses, and applies both the frequentist and Bayesian theoretical frameworks to fit the different types of statistical models that allow an analysis of the types of data most commonly gathered by life scientists. It presents the material in an informal, approachable, and progressive manner suitable for readers with only a basic knowledge of calculus and statistics. Statistical Modeling with R is aimed at senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners throughout the life sciences, seeking to strengthen their understanding of quantitative methods and to apply them successfully to real world scenarios, whether in the fields of ecology, evolution, environmental studies, or computational biology.

This accessible textbook is for those without a mathematical background (just some notions of basic algebra are sufficient) and provides a comprehensive introduction to all topics covered in introductory behavioural science statistics courses. It includes plenty of real examples to demonstrate approaches in depth based on real psychology experiments utilizing the statistical techniques described. New content in this thoroughly updated second edition includes an introduction to Bayesian statistics which complements the coverage of Classical/Frequentist statistics present in the first edition. It also offers practical details on how to perform analyses using JASP – a globally employed, freely downloadable statistical package. The updated eResources also feature a range of new material including additional exercises so readers can test themselves on what they have learned in the book. This timely and highly readable text will be invaluable to undergraduate students of psychology and research methods courses in related disciplines, as well as anyone with an interest in understanding and applying the basic concepts and inferential techniques associated with statistics in the behavioural sciences.

This book examines important advances and offers a realistic image of the state of the art in student learning outcomes assessment in higher education—a field close to the core of nearly every higher education institution. Producing sound information on what students know and can do is critical to higher education practitioners and future social prosperity. Spanning international, national and institutional developments, the book presents methodological and empirical insights, highlights research challenges, and showcases the enormous progress made in recent years. The book will be of interest to researchers in education assessment and neighbouring fields, and stakeholders like institutional leaders, teachers and graduate employers looking for better insight on returns, governments searching for information to assist with funding and regulation, and members of the public wanting more clarity about outcomes and public investment. This book was originally published as a special issue of Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education.

This book occupies a unique position in the field of statistical analysis in the behavioural and social sciences in that it targets learners who would benefit from learning more conceptually and less computationally about statistical procedures and the software packages that can be used to implement them. This book provides a comprehensive overview of this important research skill domain with an emphasis on visual support for learning and better understanding. The primary focus is on fundamental concepts, procedures and interpretations of statistical analyses within a single broad illustrative research context. The book covers a wide range of descriptive, correlational and inferential statistical procedures as well as more advanced procedures not typically covered in introductory and intermediate statistical texts. It is an ideal reference for postgraduate students as well as for researchers seeking to broaden their conceptual exposure to what is possible in statistical analysis.

Whether based on academic theories or discovered empirically by humans and machines, all financial models are at the mercy of modeling errors that can be mitigated but not eliminated. Probabilistic ML technologies are based on a simple and intuitive definition of probability and the rigorous calculus of probability theory. Unlike conventional AI systems, probabilistic machine learning (ML) systems treat errors and uncertainties as features, not bugs. They quantify uncertainty generated from inexact model inputs and outputs as probability distributions, not point estimates. Most importantly, these systems are capable of forewarning us when their inferences and predictions are no longer useful in the current market environment. These ML systems provide realistic support for financial decision-making and risk management in the face of uncertainty and incomplete information. Probabilistic ML is the next generation ML framework and technology for AI-powered financial and investing systems for many reasons. They are generative ensembles that learn continually from small and noisy financial datasets while seamlessly enabling probabilistic inference, prediction and counterfactual reasoning. By moving away from flawed statistical methodologies (and a restrictive conventional view of probability as a limiting frequency), you can embrace an intuitive view of probability as logic within an axiomatic statistical framework that comprehensively and successfully quantifies uncertainty. This book shows you why and how to make that transition.