July 1995 Time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, but they are not an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. They typically generate a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Schiff and Montenegro review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization. Under those circumstances, parameter values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime. Schiff and Montenegro also argue that investments in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy. They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies. This paper--a product of the International Trade Division, International Economics Department--is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the impact of policy reforms.

Time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, but they are not an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. They typically generate a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform.Schiff and Montenegro review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response.Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform.Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavioral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization.Under those circumstances, parameter values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime.Schiff and Montenegro also argue that investments in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy.They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies.This paper - a product of the International Trade Division, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the impact of policy reforms.

Agricultural markets have entered a long-term process of liberalization, with the aim of reducing imposed market imperfections such as monopolistic public trade, entry barriers and subsidies. The experience of more than a decade of agriculture liberalization offers a good opportunity to review and analyze the outcome of this process and to draw lessons for the future. The central topic in Agricultural Markets Beyond Liberalization is the relationship between market structure and how markets perform in a dynamic context during a liberalization process. The topic is studied from both a micro and macro viewpoint and refers to different types of agricultural markets. This volume brings together the dynamics of agricultural markets in several parts of the world, with a special focus on transition economics and Africa. The different studies cover geographical areas as wide as a district as well as a group of countries, and institutions from individual contracts to multi-national organizations. The analysis of liberalization under different circumstances, and the different methods of analysis used by the authors provide a valuable foundation for the assessment of liberalization.

This invaluable collection compares the relatively unsuccessful economic development of Subsaharan Africa with that of the successful Asian economies, especially the Asian 'tigers'. It covers three main areas of comparison: the lessons for Africa from the Asian experience; secondly, the comparisons of various aspects of economic development in Africa and Asia; and finally, convergence: how far the laggard economies are catching up with, or diverging away from, each other.

A dozen papers from an August 1989 international conference near Zurich explore the role of governments in improving the agriculture of developing countries, and how that affects overall industrial development. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

The volume offers to the reader a multi-faceted dialogue between noted experts from two major agricultural countries, both founding members of the Word Trade Organisation, each one with different stakes in the great globalisation game. After providing the recent historical background of agricultural policies in India and France, the contributors address burning issues related to market and regulation, food security and food safety, the expected benefits from the WTO and the genuine problems raised by the new forms of international trade in agriculture, including the sensitive question of intellectual property rights in bio-technologies. This informed volume underlines the necessity of moving beyond the North-South divide, in order to address the real challenges of the future.