This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Continued global warming and ocean acidification are predicted with high confidence, while the direction and magnitude of changes of other atmospheric drivers (e.g. precipitation, wind) and nutrient loading are of high uncertainty and regionally dependent. Biogeochemical responses of coastal shelf seas to external drivers are often nonlinear, involving feedback that may amplify or dampen a perturbation imposed on the system. Coupled physical-biogeochemical process-based numerical models have proven useful in elucidating the mechanistic interplay and relative importance of the different factors contributing to ecosystem functioning with increasing realism. This research topic aims to understand and compare marine ecosystem functioning in Chinese and European shelf seas, based on studies that use state-of-the-art modeling and monitoring of coastal ecosystem dynamics. This topic will enable more efficient knowledge share and distribution through a comparative assessment between distinct coastal shelf systems in China and Europe to further our understanding of complicated ecosystem dynamics in response to a changing climate and increasing anthropogenic pressure. It will allow us to better understand the sensitivity of coastal shelf ecosystem functioning to physical and biogeochemical perturbations, the role of shelf seas in global carbon cycling, and the resilience of Chinese and European shelf seas to ongoing and future changes in climate and anthropogenic activities.

Includes all works deriving from DOE, other related government-sponsored information and foreign nonnuclear information.