The reality of the Arab-Israeli balance now consists of two subordinate balances: Israel versus Syria and Israel versus the Palestinians. The book analyzes these two balances in detail and their impact on defense planning in each country and on the overall strategic risk to the region as a whole. It covers military developments in each of six states-Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine-and provides an analytical view with charts and tables of how the changing natures of the military and political threats faced by each is impacting its military force readiness and development. The book has the most comprehensive data on past, current, and future military force structure currently available, drawn from the widest range of sources. Responding to the most recent of events in the region, this book is the first to deal with the effects on the Arab-Israeli military balance of the strategic uncertainty created by the Iraqi insurgency and the Iranian nuclear program. It also studies how the Gaza pullout, the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the changing political landscape in Israel, and the threat of nuclear proliferation are having impacts on the Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace accords and the prospects for a settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis. The roles of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are analyzed in light of the changing political landscape in both Israel and Palestine. Given the role of Syria in the Palestinian-Israeli affairs, the book also explores the ways that internal instability in Lebanon could escalate into a regional conflict.

The significance of the Persian Gulf to international peace and security and to the global energy market cannot be overstated. Events such as the attacks of September 11 and the rise in energy demand and prices have only highlighted the importance of stability in the Gulf to the health of the global economy. This book demonstrates that the nature of military and political threats in the Gulf states (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Yemen, and the UAE) has shifted during the past three years. Although the threat from Saddam Hussein's Iraq, which produced three recent, major conventional wars-Iran-Iraq (1980-88), Persian Gulf (1990), and Iraq (2003)-has largely disappeared, it has been replaced by concerns over the asymmetric warfare conducted by terrorist organizations and over the proliferation of WMDs by both states and terrorists. These developments are affecting the defense planning and strategic posture of each country, and this book analyzes developments in the force structures of the Gulf states and their ability to deal with this shift in the nature of the threat. The military and security forces of the Gulf states must evolve to adapt to the changing nature of the threat and take into account the risk of the Iraqi insurgency and the uncertainty surrounding Iraq's future. The key areas covered in this book include the internal terrorist threat to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states; the impact of Iran's nuclear program and the risk it poses to energy and internal security in the Gulf area; and border disputes within the region that could develop into conflict. In addition, the book studies the impact of the Iraq War on regional security and the fear of the insurgency spilling over into neighboring states. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan demonstrate a shift toward using internal security services to deal with the threat of extremism and asymmetric warfare. They also suggest that high energy prices and export revenues provide the Gulf countries the opportunity to upgrade their military forces and deal with their undercapitalization as a result of low oil prices in the 1990s. Moreover, they insist that the future of Iraq, the strategic and nuclear posture of Iran, and the terrorist threat will remain major risks and uncertainties in the short to medium run.

Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War provides a detailed and current picture of the military capabilities of Israel and Syria, reflecting the changes and lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006 and other recent conflicts. It offers extensive analysis, supported by tables and charts, on the trends in military spending, arms imports and technology transfers, military manpower, weapons, and orders of battle. By going beyond military balance analysis, Cordesman examines the probable nature and results of a future war and how the readiness, capability, tactics, and technology on each side would shape its outcome. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War shows how a dangerous new conflict between both nations would cripple all strides in strategic gains and Israeli-Syrian diplomacy. On the other hand, peace negotiations would offer a safer, more productive relationship. Israel and Syria need to consider the true nature of their military balance and the undermining effect to both nations as well as the costs and risks of any future conflict. Although Syria does retain important options in terms of asymmetric and proxy conflicts, it would fail in its attempt to recapture the Golan. While Israel would almost certainly win a future war, it cannot make gains from acquiring more Syrian territory and a new war would create major problems with its neighbors and in dealing with the Palestinians. The risk of a new Israeli-Syrian conflict is so serious that both sides need to understand the true nature of their military balance, and the costs and risks of any future conflict. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War shows how dangerous a new conflict could be, that neither side can make lasting strategic gains from a future conflict, and that peace negotiations offer a far safer and more productive option. It provides a detailed and current picture of the military capabilities of Israel and Syria, reflecting the changes and lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War in 2006 and other recent conflicts. Israel and Syria: The Military Balance and Prospects of War provides extensive analysis, supported by tables and charts, on the trends in military spending, arms imports and technology transfers, military manpower, weapons, and orders of battle. By going beyond military balance analysis, Cordesman examines the probable nature and results of a future war and how the readiness, capability, tactics, and technology on each side would shape its outcome.

From grassroots terrorism to the nuclear ambitions of hostile nations, the United States faces increasingly complex threats to its national security. Combating these threats continues to demand a reshaping of the nation's security structure, military forces and defense expenditures. In this study, Anthony Cordesman offers a detailed analysis of critical challenges affecting U.S. national security and how failures in adapting to these challenges have exacerbated the strains on available resources. He systematically identifies the most glaring obstacles to successful national security planning and proposes constructive and practical ways to proceed in the future. Cordesman focuses on ten specific challenges, and each is addressed within the context of the Iraq War, Afghan War, War on Terrorism, and the risk of conflict over the Taiwan Straits. Out of the lessons drawn from these experiences, he examines the future of international coalitions, asymmetric warfare, nation building, and stability operations, and concludes that perhaps the most pressing area for change is the need for accountability among civilian and military policymakers.

The postwar period saw increased interest in the idea of relatively easy-to-manufacture but devastatingly lethal radiological munitions whose use would not discriminate between civilian and military targets. Death Dust explores the largely unknown history of the development of radiological weapons (RW)—weapons designed to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation—through a series of comparative case studies across the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, Iraq, and Egypt. The authors illuminate the historical drivers of and impediments to radiological weapons innovation. They also examine how new, dire geopolitical events—such as the war in Ukraine—could encourage other states to pursue RW and analyze the impact of the spread of such weapons on nuclear deterrence and the nonproliferation regime. Death Dust presents practical, necessary steps to reduce the likelihood of a resurgence of interest in and pursuit of radiological weapons by state actors.

The war in Iraq has expanded from a struggle between Coalition forces and the remnants of former regime loyalists to a multi-faceted conflict involving numerous Sunni groups, Shi'ite militias, Kurdish nationals, and foreign jihadists. Iraq's Insurgency and the Road to Civil Conflict is Anthony Cordesman's latest assessment of the Iraqi conflict and documents its entire evolution, from the history of ethnic tensions through the current U.S. surge. He identifies each actor in the arena, analyzes their motivations, and presents a detailed record of their actions, tactics, and capabilities. Cordesman's exhaustive study, based on meticulous research, is the most thorough account of the war to date. Beginning with the consequences of imperial colonialism and touching upon the ethnic tensions throughout Saddam's regime, Cordesman examines and details the confluence of forces and events that have paved the way toward Iraq's current civil conflict. He analyzes major turning points, including elections, economic developments, and key incidents of violence that continue to shape the war. Finally, he outlines the lessons learned from this history and what can and cannot be done to stabilize the nation.

This anthology covers Small Wars Journal writings on Iranian and Hezbollah hybrid warfare activities around the world. Writings date from 2007 to 2015, including coverage on the nuclear deal, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and Qods Force global movements, and Hezbollah’s expanding influence as Iran’s proxy. This anthology is meant to support the U.S. security debate on a post-nuclear deal Iran and an increasing Hezbollah presence in Middle East affairs as well as Latin America. This volume is composed of sixty chapters divided into four sections on Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear ambitions, Hezbollah’s global operations, Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Middle Eastern security affairs and their activities in Latin America. Also included is a foreword by Jason Rivera, an afterword by Dr. Luis Fleischman, a postscript by Dr. John P. Sullivan, an acronym listing, chapter notes, suggested readings following each section, and short biographies of the fifty-three contributors showcased in this work.

A much-needed examination of the Israeli Defence Force (IDF), one of the worlds most complex military forces. Stuart Cohen analyzes the strategic, societal and organizational aspects of the IDF, identifying the key changes occurring in Israel‘s military framework, and exploring their potential implications.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is now in its fourth decade and shows no signs of ending. Raphael D. Marcus examines this conflict since the formation of Hezbollah during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon in the early 1980s. He critically evaluates events including Israel’s long counterguerrilla campaign throughout the 1990s, the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, the 2006 summer war, and concludes with an assessment of current tensions on the border between Israel and Lebanon related to the Syrian civil war. Israel’s Long War with Hezbollah is both the first complete military history of this decades-long conflict and an analysis of military innovation and adaptation. The book is based on unique fieldwork in Israel and Lebanon, extensive research into Hebrew and Arabic primary sources, and dozens of interviews Marcus conducted with Israeli defense officials, high-ranking military officers of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), United Nations personnel, a Hezbollah official, and Western diplomats. As an expert on organizational learning, Marcus analyzes ongoing processes of strategic and operational innovation and adaptation by both the IDF and Hezbollah throughout the long guerrilla conflict. His conclusions illuminate the dynamics of the ongoing conflict and illustrate the complexity of military adaptation under fire. With Hezbollah playing an ongoing role in the civil war in Syria and the simmering hostilities on the Israel-Lebanon border, students, scholars, diplomats, and military practitioners with an interest in Middle Eastern security issues, Israeli military history, and military innovation and adaptation can ill afford to neglect this book.