Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) approach, which allows projecting corporate probabilities of default (PDs) under different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular, a protracted recession and the ensuing currency depreciation could erode buffers on corporate balance sheets, pushing up the probabilities of default (PDs) in the corporate sector to the high levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a low-probability scenario, the results suggest the need to closely monitor vulnerabilities and strengthen contingency plans.

"Once equity has fallen below a certain threshold for a significant period of time, it triggers a suspension of debt payments and distorts incentives for equity holds and managers. But what is a significant period of time? You or I could pay a $10 million annual mortgage payment for a day or two but not two or three months. Similarly, owners and managers can withstand short periods of illiquidity or negative equity but not longer ones. At some point in time, the inability to meet obligations and perception of continued difficulties creates a system-wide breakdown in debt payments." The relationship between the corporate sector and a country's macroeconomy is receiving increased attention from policymakers and investors, especially those affected by the Asian crisis. Recent crises have pointed out the importance of improving our understanding of the links between the corporate sector, the financial sector, and the macroeconomy in a world of volatile capital flows. Assessing the vulnerability of the corporate sector and its links to financial and exchange rate crisis is important for both improved surveillance and in the design of policies in crisis countries. However, the analytical and operational tools available to policymakers and investors to analyze this problem have been limited. This Technical Paper was prepared as part of an initiative to develop new frameworks which can integrate state-of-the art corporate finance principles, macroeconomic, and financial sector analysis. An innovative yet practical framework is provided which has numerous applications for assessing corporate sector vulnerability, design of corporate restructuring strategies, as well as financial sector and macroeconomic policies. It will be of interest to bankers, economic policymakers, corporate finance specialists, and macroeconomists.

This paper focuses on the selected issues of the Indonesian economy: (1) banking sector condition in India, (2) corporate vulnerabilities, (3) analysis of macrofinancial linkages in Indonesia, and (4) infrastructure development in Indonesia. Overall, the banking sector appears well capitalized and profitable. However, rising vulnerabilities from corporate foreign currency leverage and challenging financial market conditions have raised concerns. The risk from the corporate sector remains manageable, and the authorities have strengthened the monitoring framework. Macrofinancial linkages are analyzed using two complementary approaches: sector-level balance sheet analysis and a panel vector autoregressive approach. This paper addresses macrofiscal issues surrounding infrastructure development in Indonesia.

Over the past decade, Indonesia has developed into an important regional and global economy, as well as an active participant in the G20. The chapters in this book document the substantial improvements in the quality of macroeconomic policy that Indonesia has achieved, while also clearly laying out an agenda of measures that should be taken to safeguard these gains and further lower vulnerabilities going forward. Rather than just demonstrating progress in key macroeconomic indicators, the contributors have delved into the ways that global volatility, especially since 2008, has affected Indonesia and how that country has adjusted its policies to meet the new challenges.

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

This paper assesses the stability of Indonesia’s financial system. Since the 2010 Financial Sector Assessment Program, Indonesia’s macroeconomic performance has been robust and the financial system has been stable. Systemic risk is low and the banking system appears generally resilient to severe shocks. Market-based indicators point to relatively low levels of systemic risk. Under severe stress-test scenarios, banks experience sizable credit losses, particularly from corporate exposures, but high capital levels and strong profitability help absorb most of these losses. Many banks face relatively small shortfalls in liquidity stress tests, including in foreign currency, and these appear manageable for Bank Indonesia.

This Special Issue explores the cross-disciplinary approaches, methodologies, and applications of socio-environmental vulnerability assessment that can be incorporated into sustainable management. The volume comprises 20 different points of view, which cover environmental protection and development, urban planning, geography, public policymaking, participation processes, and other cross-disciplinary fields. The articles collected in this volume come from all over the world and present the current state of the world’s environmental and social systems at a local, regional, and national level. New approaches and analytical tools for the assessment of environmental and social systems are studied. The practical implementation of sustainable development as well as progressive environmental and development policymaking are discussed. Finally, the authors deliberate about the perspectives of social–environmental systems in a rapidly changing world.

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Some issues addressed in this Working Group III volume are mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, managing biological carbon reservoirs, geo-engineering, costing methods, and decision-making frameworks.

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis.