The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to the 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session with 30 contributions. Selected contributions have been drawn from the conference for this book. All contributions in this volume are peer-reviewed and share original research in Bayesian computation, application, and theory.

Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology

Bayesian analysis of complex models based on stochastic processes has in recent years become a growing area. This book provides a unified treatment of Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, covering the main classes of stochastic processing including modeling, computational, inference, forecasting, decision making and important applied models. Key features: Explores Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, providing a unified treatment. Provides a thorough introduction for research students. Computational tools to deal with complex problems are illustrated along with real life case studies Looks at inference, prediction and decision making. Researchers, graduate and advanced undergraduate students interested in stochastic processes in fields such as statistics, operations research (OR), engineering, finance, economics, computer science and Bayesian analysis will benefit from reading this book. With numerous applications included, practitioners of OR, stochastic modelling and applied statistics will also find this book useful.

In the spatial or spatio-temporal context, specifying the correct covariance function is fundamental to obtain efficient predictions, and to understand the underlying physical process of interest. This book focuses on covariance and variogram functions, their role in prediction, and appropriate choice of these functions in applications. Both recent and more established methods are illustrated to assess many common assumptions on these functions, such as, isotropy, separability, symmetry, and intrinsic correlation. After an extensive introduction to spatial methodology, the book details the effects of common covariance assumptions and addresses methods to assess the appropriateness of such assumptions for various data structures. Key features: An extensive introduction to spatial methodology including a survey of spatial covariance functions and their use in spatial prediction (kriging) is given. Explores methodology for assessing the appropriateness of assumptions on covariance functions in the spatial, spatio-temporal, multivariate spatial, and point pattern settings. Provides illustrations of all methods based on data and simulation experiments to demonstrate all methodology and guide to proper usage of all methods. Presents a brief survey of spatial and spatio-temporal models, highlighting the Gaussian case and the binary data setting, along with the different methodologies for estimation and model fitting for these two data structures. Discusses models that allow for anisotropic and nonseparable behaviour in covariance functions in the spatial, spatio-temporal and multivariate settings. Gives an introduction to point pattern models, including testing for randomness, and fitting regular and clustered point patterns. The importance and assessment of isotropy of point patterns is detailed. Statisticians, researchers, and data analysts working with spatial and space-time data will benefit from this book as well as will graduate students with a background in basic statistics following courses in engineering, quantitative ecology or atmospheric science.

Ein Wiley-Klassiker über Bayes-Statistik, jetzt in durchgesehener und erweiterter Neuauflage! - Werk spiegelt die stürmische Entwicklung dieses Gebietes innerhalb der letzten Jahre wider - vollständige Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen - jetzt ergänzt durch unzählige Anwendungsbeispiele - die wichtigsten modernen Methoden (u. a. hierarchische Modellierung, linear-dynamische Modellierung, Metaanalyse, MCMC-Simulationen) - einzigartige Diskussion der Finetti-Transformierten und anderer Themen, über die man ansonsten nur spärliche Informationen findet - Lösungen zu den Übungsaufgaben sind enthalten

An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PAPERBACK SERIES The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "In recent years many monographs have been published on specialized aspects of multivariate data-analysis–on cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, correspondence analysis, developments of discriminant analysis, graphical methods, classification, and so on. This book is an attempt to review these newer methods together with the classical theory. . . . This one merits two cheers." –J. C. Gower, Department of Statistics Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden, U.K. Review in Biometrics, June 1987 Multivariate Observations is a comprehensive sourcebook that treats data-oriented techniques as well as classical methods. Emphasis is on principles rather than mathematical detail, and coverage ranges from the practical problems of graphically representing high-dimensional data to the theoretical problems relating to matrices of random variables. Each chapter serves as a self-contained survey of a specific topic. The book includes many numerical examples and over 1,100 references.

Praise for the First Edition "Finally, a book devoted to dynamic programming and written using the language of operations research (OR)! This beautiful book fills a gap in the libraries of OR specialists and practitioners." —Computing Reviews This new edition showcases a focus on modeling and computation for complex classes of approximate dynamic programming problems Understanding approximate dynamic programming (ADP) is vital in order to develop practical and high-quality solutions to complex industrial problems, particularly when those problems involve making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Approximate Dynamic Programming, Second Edition uniquely integrates four distinct disciplines—Markov decision processes, mathematical programming, simulation, and statistics—to demonstrate how to successfully approach, model, and solve a wide range of real-life problems using ADP. The book continues to bridge the gap between computer science, simulation, and operations research and now adopts the notation and vocabulary of reinforcement learning as well as stochastic search and simulation optimization. The author outlines the essential algorithms that serve as a starting point in the design of practical solutions for real problems. The three curses of dimensionality that impact complex problems are introduced and detailed coverage of implementation challenges is provided. The Second Edition also features: A new chapter describing four fundamental classes of policies for working with diverse stochastic optimization problems: myopic policies, look-ahead policies, policy function approximations, and policies based on value function approximations A new chapter on policy search that brings together stochastic search and simulation optimization concepts and introduces a new class of optimal learning strategies Updated coverage of the exploration exploitation problem in ADP, now including a recently developed method for doing active learning in the presence of a physical state, using the concept of the knowledge gradient A new sequence of chapters describing statistical methods for approximating value functions, estimating the value of a fixed policy, and value function approximation while searching for optimal policies The presented coverage of ADP emphasizes models and algorithms, focusing on related applications and computation while also discussing the theoretical side of the topic that explores proofs of convergence and rate of convergence. A related website features an ongoing discussion of the evolving fields of approximation dynamic programming and reinforcement learning, along with additional readings, software, and datasets. Requiring only a basic understanding of statistics and probability, Approximate Dynamic Programming, Second Edition is an excellent book for industrial engineering and operations research courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for researchers and professionals who utilize dynamic programming, stochastic programming, and control theory to solve problems in their everyday work.

Stochastic processes are widely used for model building in the social, physical, engineering and life sciences as well as in financial economics. In model building, statistical inference for stochastic processes is of great importance from both a theoretical and an applications point of view. This book deals with Fractional Diffusion Processes and statistical inference for such stochastic processes. The main focus of the book is to consider parametric and nonparametric inference problems for fractional diffusion processes when a complete path of the process over a finite interval is observable. Key features: Introduces self-similar processes, fractional Brownian motion and stochastic integration with respect to fractional Brownian motion. Provides a comprehensive review of statistical inference for processes driven by fractional Brownian motion for modelling long range dependence. Presents a study of parametric and nonparametric inference problems for the fractional diffusion process. Discusses the fractional Brownian sheet and infinite dimensional fractional Brownian motion. Includes recent results and developments in the area of statistical inference of fractional diffusion processes. Researchers and students working on the statistics of fractional diffusion processes and applied mathematicians and statisticians involved in stochastic process modelling will benefit from this book.

Praise for the Second Edition "This book has never had a competitor. It is the only book that takes a broad approach to sampling . . . any good personal statistics library should include a copy of this book." —Technometrics "Well-written . . . an excellent book on an important subject. Highly recommended." —Choice "An ideal reference for scientific researchers and other professionals who use sampling." —Zentralblatt Math Features new developments in the field combined with all aspects of obtaining, interpreting, and using sample data Sampling provides an up-to-date treatment of both classical and modern sampling design and estimation methods, along with sampling methods for rare, clustered, and hard-to-detect populations. This Third Edition retains the general organization of the two previous editions, but incorporates extensive new material—sections, exercises, and examples—throughout. Inside, readers will find all-new approaches to explain the various techniques in the book; new figures to assist in better visualizing and comprehending underlying concepts such as the different sampling strategies; computing notes for sample selection, calculation of estimates, and simulations; and more. Organized into six sections, the book covers basic sampling, from simple random to unequal probability sampling; the use of auxiliary data with ratio and regression estimation; sufficient data, model, and design in practical sampling; useful designs such as stratified, cluster and systematic, multistage, double and network sampling; detectability methods for elusive populations; spatial sampling; and adaptive sampling designs. Featuring a broad range of topics, Sampling, Third Edition serves as a valuable reference on useful sampling and estimation methods for researchers in various fields of study, including biostatistics, ecology, and the health sciences. The book is also ideal for courses on statistical sampling at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.