Food insecurity at the national and household level not only is a consequence of conflict but can also cause and drive conflicts. This paper makes the case for an even higher priority for food security–related policies and programs in conflict-prone countries. Such policies and programs have the potential to build resilience to conflict by not only helping countries and people cope with and recover from conflict, but also contributing to preventing conflicts and supporting economic development more broadly—that is, helping countries and people become even better off. Based on this definition and a new conceptual framework, the paper offers several insights from four case studies on Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. First, conflicts are often related to other shocks such as economic crises, price shocks, and natural disasters. Second, increasing subsidies is a favored policy measure in times of crisis; however, such measures do not qualify as resilience building. Third, climate change adaptation should be an integral part of conflict prevention in part because climate change is expected to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict in the future. Fourth, building price information systems, introducing and expanding credit and insurance markets, geographic targeting of social safety nets, and building functioning and effective institutions are key measures for building resilience to conflict. Finally, the paper points to several important knowledge gaps.

One and a half billion people still live in fragile, conflict affected areas. People in these countries are about twice as likely to be malnourished and to die during infancy as people in other developing countries.2 This outcome is often a direct consequence of conflict: conflict reduces food availability by destroying agricultural assets and infrastructure.

This Food Policy Report explains why there is a need to place even higher priority on food security-related policies and programs in conflict-prone countries, and offers insights for policymakers regarding how to do so. To understand the relationship between conflict and food security, this report builds a new conceptual framework of food security and applies it to four case studies on Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. It argues that food security-related policies and programs build resilience to conflict insofar as they are expected not only to help countries and people cope with and recover from conflict but also to contribute to preventing conflicts and support economic development more broadly: by helping countries and people become even better off.

Food and nutrition insecurity is a consequence and a driver of civil conflict. War and civil unrest reduce household incomes and employment opportunities through economic recession; cause losses in people’s purchasing power from price inflation; and restrict food availability, access, and utilization through disruption of infrastructure. In turn, low per capita income and poverty, youth unemployment, and social and economic inequality—often combined with poor governance, population pressure, and rough terrain—are factors driving civil conflict. Recently, food and nutrition insecurity has been identified as another main driver of civil conflict globally and even more so in Arab countries. Specifically, rising international food prices were reported to have significantly increased the incidence of antigovernment demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict in low-income countries in the past.

Economic shocks including food price shocks, environmental shocks, social shocks, political shocks, health shocks, and many other types of shocks hit poor people and communities around the world, compromising their efforts to improve their well-being. As shocks evolve and become more frequent or intense, they further threaten people’s food and nutrition security and their livelihoods. How do we help people and communities to become more resilient, to not only bounce back from shocks but to also to get ahead of them and improve their well-being so that they are less vulnerable to the next shock? How do we get better at coping with—and even thriving—in the presence of shocks?

The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) were both created in response to the food crises of the 1970s. We have worked together for more than 20 years to catalyze agricultural and rural development and improve food security in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. IFAD and IFPRI have strengthened the productivity and resilience of smallholder farmers and other rural people, with a particular focus on helping expand their access to innovative local farming methods, climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies and financing, and more profitable markets. To further promote rural development and transformation, IFAD and IFPRI have built cutting-edge information systems and tools that deliver sound data and analyses to governments, donors, farmer organizations, and other stakeholders. As a result, the two organizations have fostered evidence-based policy making and investments that promote agricultural growth and rural development.

The project “Strengthening Food Security Information and Early Warning System,” was a two-year (1 February 2019 – 31 January 2021), EUR 5.9 million project funded by the European Union to scale up the geographic coverage of Yemen’s Food Security Information System. The overall objective of the project was to increase systemic resilience to food crisis and climate change as well as improve food security and nutrition governance for decision-making at the national- and governorate-levels. The project is the latest phase in a series of EU-funded investments since in food security information systems in Yemen, with this project aiming to expand the geographic and technical coverage of previous phases. With these investments expected to continue in the future, the evaluation has aimed to provide accountability to project partners as well as the provision of evidence-based analyses and usable recommendations that feed into programming, policy and decision-making processes.

This year’s edition of the Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition reports that after a prolonged decline hunger appears to be on the rise. In sub-Saharan Africa there were about 224 million undernourished people in sub-Saharan Africa in 2016, up from 200 million in 2015. In many countries, the worsening situation in 2015 and 2016 can be attributed to adverse climatic conditions, often linked to the El Niño phenomenon, resulting in poor harvests and the loss of livestock. Conflict, sometimes in combination with drought or floods, also contributed to severe food insecurity in several countries. Lower commodity prices and a difficult global economic environment have furthermore contributed to the worsening food security situation. The worrying trend in undernourishment is not yet reflected in the series of indicators referring to nutritional outcomes in the region, with the prevalence of stunting and wasting for children under the age of five continuing to decline gradually. However, progress towards the World Health Assembly global nutrition targets has been generally poor. While a relatively large proportion of countries are on track to meeting the target for overweight in children, the rates for adult obesity are soaring in all regions and are especially high in Southern Africa. The report also finds that across the board, countries have developed and are developing policy frameworks and investment plans that are aligned, or efforts are being made to align them, with the goals of the Malabo Declaration and SDG 2. Through CAADP, policy processes are coherent, and this initiative has raised the profile of agriculture and heavily influenced agricultural policy at regional and national levels. However, the worrying trends in undernourishment underline the need for even greater efforts to achieve the SDG 2 by 2030. The thematic part of the report focuses on the food security and nutrition–conflict nexus. Conflict is not only an increasingly important cause of food insecurity and malnutrition but food insecurity and malnutrition can also become conflict multipliers. Addressing the causes of conflicts and supporting food security and livelihoods can help build resilience to conflict and contribute to sustaining peace.

Armed conflict combined with prolonged drought has put about 20 million people at risk of starvation and death in Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, and northern Nigeria. The international development and aid communities are caught between the enormity of the humanitarian crisis, which demands an estimated US$4.4 billion to address, and the lack of resources forthcoming from donors. Food crises, famine-like conditions, and famines recur with regularity in many developing countries (see Box 1 for definitions of terms). Although the current famines can be largely attributed to conflicts, chronic food insecurity also threatens several other African countries. For example, 6.7 million people were affected by Malawi’s largest food crisis in decades in 2016–2017, and the country remains vulnerable to weather extremes that could create food emergencies (World Bank 2017). In Kenya, food security has deteriorated since the end of 2016 and half of its 47 counties face food shortages (Chatterjee and Mengistu 2017). How do countries prepare to prevent shocks—natural and man-made—from generating food crises? What does it take to break the cycle of chronic food insecurity and build resilient food systems? How have some countries managed to prevent drought from leading to famine? In this brief, we document lessons for building resilient food systems to prevent future famines.