This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.

This book investigates the South African business cycle and its links to structural change in the economy. Against the backdrop of the democratic transition in 1994 and the global financial crisis, the authors study how business cycles in South Africa have changed and how cycles are related to key developments in the financial markets, international trade and business sentiment in the country. By focusing on peaks and troughs in economic activity – so-called ‘turning-point cycles’ – the book links up with the common approach of international policymakers to studying fluctuations in economic activity. The authors also introduce new approaches to measuring phases of the business cycle (to understand slow recoveries after the global crisis), provide comprehensive descriptions to complement quantitative analyses, and utilize new data sources that allow the measurement of economic activity over longer periods. As such, the book provides the first integrated overview of business cycles in an emerging market, providing academics and policymakers with a better understanding of the measurement challenges and drivers of the cycle.

Over the past 20 years, social scientists, government officials, and investors have expressed mounting interest in the BRICS countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. These countries are widely viewed as both key actors in the global economy and important regional powers. The Political Economy of the BRICS Countries is a three-volume set that aims to address various crucial issues regarding these countries.Volume 1 analyzes whether economic growth in the BRICS countries has been broad-based and promoted equitable economic and social outcomes. The authors examine specific dimensions of growth in these five economies that constrain their ability to act effectively and cohesively in international affairs.Volume 2 considers how the BRICS have affected global economic governance and the international political economy.Volume 3 provides various approaches to economic informality in the BRICS. Moreover, the chapters deal with several connections between informality and important political, economic, and institutional phenomena such as economic globalization and international aid, economic development, political regimes, social capital, political networks and political participation, labor market rules, and social policy preferences.The BRICS countries have attracted rising attention over the past two decades. The volumes provide an in-depth analysis of various key issues regarding these countries and chart a course for future research.

Transculturalism and Business in the BRIC States, edited by Yvette Sánchez and Claudia Franziska Brühwiler, is the first handbook on the BRIC States that offers a transcultural perspective, which goes beyond the typical ’how to’ manuals or economic projections and provides an understanding of transculturalism as it is studied and practiced in the respective countries themselves. This unique reference book also offers insights into the relations between the corresponding states and the challenges facing those trying to foster more intense business exchanges. The reader learns to interpret cross-cultural issues from the perspectives of the BRIC states themselves and gains insight into the way scholars in the BRIC area reflect on transculturalism. Moreover, it introduces the reader to fresh visualizations that help consider transculturalism beyond the known categories. The book will appeal, on the one hand, to practitioners who are active in the BRIC states and wish to better grasp the challenges to business relations, as well as the intra-area dynamics and, on the other hand, to scholars in transcultural studies and international management, due to its insider approach. Since the book combines theoretical concepts with a clear geographic focus and a critical approach to traditional models, it is suitable for both academic audiences as well as for practitioners who appreciate a sound theoretical base and a fresh take on a subject.

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the latter to the former. We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to investigate the extent of business cycle transmission from BRICs to LICs through both direct (FDI, trade, productivity, exchange rates) and indirect (global commodity prices, demand, and interest rates) channels. The estimation results show that there are significant direct spillovers while indirect spillovers also matters in many cases. Based on these results, we show that growing LIC-BRIC ties have significantly helped alleviate the adverse impact of the recent global financial crisis on LIC economies.

The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.

This proceedings volume presents new methods and applications in applied economic research with an emphasis on advances in panel data analysis. Featuring papers presented at the 2017 International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE) held at Coventry University, this volume provides current research on econometric panel data methodologies as they are applied in microeconomics, macroeconomics, financial economics and agricultural economics. International Conference on Applied Economics (ICOAE) is an annual conference that started in 2008 designed to bring together economists from different fields of applied economic research in order to share methods and ideas. Applied economics is a rapidly growing field of economics that combines economic theory with econometrics to analyse economic problems of the real world usually with economic policy interest. In addition, there is growing interest in the field for panel data estimation methods, tests and techniques. This volume makes a contribution in the field of applied economic research in this area. Featuring country specific studies, this book will be of interest to academics, students, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in applied economics and economic policy.

Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.