Presents projections of federal spending and revenues over the coming decades. Under current law, an aging population and rapidly rising health care costs will sharply increase federal spending for health care programs and Social Security. If revenues remained at their historical average share of gross domestic product (GDP), such spending growth would cause federal debt to grow to unsustainable levels. If policymakers are to put the federal government on a sustainable budgetary path, they will need to increase revenues substantially as a percentage of GDP, decrease spending significantly from projected levels, or adopt some combination of those two approaches. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.

In the past few years, the federal government has been recording the largest budget deficits since 1945, both in dollar terms and as a share of the economy. Consequently, the amount of federal debt held by the public has surged. At the end of 2008, that debt equaled 40 percent of the nation's annual economic output (gross domestic product, or GDP)--a little above the 40-year average of 38 percent. Since then, the figure has shot upward: By the end of this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects, federal debt will exceed 70 percent of GDP--the highest percentage since shortly after World War II. The sharp rise in debt stems partly from lower tax revenues and higher federal spending caused by the severe economic downturn and from policies enacted during the past few years. However, the growing debt also reflects an imbalance between spending and revenues that predated the recession. Whether that debt will continue to grow in coming decades will be affected not only by long-term demographic and economic trends but also by policymakers' decisions about taxes and spending. The aging of the baby-boom generation portends a significant and sustained increase in the share of the population receiving benefits from Social Security and Medicare, as well as long-term care services financed by Medicaid. Moreover, per capita spending for health care is likely to continue rising faster than spending per person on other goods and services for many years (although the magnitude of that gap is uncertain). Without significant changes in government policy, those factors will boost federal outlays relative to GDP well above their average of the past several decades--a conclusion that holds under any plausible assumptions about future trends in demographics, economic conditions, and health care costs. According to CBO's projections, if current laws remained in place, spending on the major federal health care programs alone would grow from more than 5 percent of GDP today to almost 10 percent in 2037 and would continue to increase thereafter.1 Spending on Social Security is projected to rise much less sharply, from 5 percent of GDP today to more than 6 percent in 2030 and subsequent decades. Altogether, the aging of the population and the rising cost of health care would cause spending on the major health care programs and Social Security to grow from more than 10 percent of GDP today to almost 16 percent of GDP 25 years from now. That combined increase of more than 5 percentage points for such spending as a share of the economy is the federal government's programs and activities equivalent to about $850 billion today. (By comparison, spending on all of, excluding net outlays for interest, has averaged about 18.5 percent of GDP over the past 40 years.) If lawmakers continued certain policies that have been in place for a number of years or modified some provisions of current law that might be difficult to sustain for a long period, the increase in spending on health care programs and Social Security would be even larger. Absent substantial increases in federal revenues, such growth in outlays would result in greater debt burdens than the United States has ever experienced.

Examines the pressures on the federal budget by presenting projections of federal spending and revenues over the coming decades. An aging population and rapidly rising health care costs will sharply increase federal spending for health care programs and Social Security. Such spending will cause federal debt to grow to unsustainable levels. Policymakers will need to let revenues increase substantially, decrease spending significantly, or adopt some combination of those two approaches. Contents of this report: Long-term Outlook for the Federal Budget; Long-term Outlook for Mandatory Spending on Health Care; Long-term Outlook for Social Security; Long-term Outlook for Revenues; Long-term Projections through 2080. Charts and tables.

Updated in its 12th edition, Public Administration and Public Affairs shows readers how to govern efficiently, effectively, and responsibly in an age of political corruption and crises in public finance. With a continuing and corroding crisis occurring, as well as greater governance by nonprofit organizations and private contractors, it is vital that readers are given the skills and tools to lead in such an environment. Using easy-to-understand metaphors and an accessible writing style, Public Administration and Public Affairs shows its readers how to govern better, preparing them for a career in public administration.

America is mired in debt—more than $30,000 for every man, woman, and child. Bitter fighting over deficits, taxes, and spending bedevils Washington, D.C., even as partisan gridlock has brought the government to the brink of default. Yet the more politicians on both sides of the aisle rant and the citizenry fumes, the more things seem to remain the same. In White House Burning, Simon Johnson and James Kwak—authors of the national best seller 13 Bankers and cofounders of The Baseline Scenario, a widely cited blog on economics and public policy—demystify the national debt, explaining whence it came and, even more important, what it means to you and to future generations. They tell the story of the Founding Fathers’ divisive struggles over taxes and spending. They chart the rise of the almighty dollar, which makes it easy for the United States to borrow money. They account for the debasement of our political system in the 1980s and 1990s, which produced today’s dysfunctional and impotent Congress. And they show how, if we persist on our current course, the national debt will harm ordinary Americans by reducing the number of jobs, lowering living standards, increasing inequality, and forcing a sudden and drastic reduction in the government services we now take for granted. But Johnson and Kwak also provide a clear and compelling vision for how our debt crisis can be solved while strengthening our economy and preserving the essential functions of government. They debunk the myth that such crucial programs as Social Security and Medicare must be slashed to the bone. White House Burning looks squarely at the burgeoning national debt and proposes to defuse its threat to our well-being without forcing struggling middle-class families and the elderly into poverty. Carefully researched and informed by the same compelling storytelling and lucid analysis as 13 Bankers, White House Burning is an invaluable guide to the central political and economic issue of our time. It is certain to provoke vigorous debate.

This second edition of Government at a Glance almost doubles the number of available indicators and also offers two special chapters, one on leveraged governance and one the policy implications of fiscal consolidation.