This Selected Issues paper compares the growth performance of Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries with that of comparative countries. During the last two decades, the average growth of CEMAC countries has been slower than the sub-Saharan African average. The results of the analysis show that convergence of CEMAC countries toward emerging market levels has stalled, while some lower-income, faster-growing economies have been catching up. Decomposing growth by contributing factors reveals that the total factor productivity has had a negative impact on CEMAC’s growth.

CEMAC is broadly benefiting from the positive terms of trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Post-pandemic economic recovery is taking hold, albeit slowly, supported by high oil prices and the lifting of COVID-19 containment measures. External reserves have started to build up, though still short of the desired level, owing in part to costly untargeted energy and food subsidies. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with Fund-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions.

The CEMAC’s recovery gained momentum in 2022, supported by higher hydrocarbon prices. The external position strengthened, with a rapid foreign reserve build-up, though still below adequate levels. The recent weakening in external buffers will require more forceful action to tighten liquidity conditions, greater compliance of member countries with foreign exchange regulations and stronger fiscal discipline. Underlying non-oil fiscal positions, however, also deteriorated, stressing the need for accelerating structural reforms, addressing recent fiscal slippages, and bringing polices back in line with Fund-supported program objectives and staff advice. This will be critical to strengthen the region’s resilience to hydrocarbon prices volatility, financial instability, entrenched inflation, tighter financial conditions, food insecurity, domestic conflicts and insecurity, and climate-related events.

This paper discusses possible reserve management approaches in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The paper looks beyond the region’s current oil crisis and proposes a new approach to international reserve management in the medium term.

Member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community are recovering from the global financial crisis, although growth in 2011 has not returned to precrisis levels. Executive Directors welcomed the region’s economic recovery from the global financial crisis and its overall positive outlook. Directors noted, however, that the recovery has been uneven across member countries and that inflation is on the rise owing to high international food and fuel prices. Directors encouraged the authorities to adopt an appropriate policy mix to contain inflationary pressures in the short term.

January 1998 Cameroon stands to gain economically from the new regional trade agreement among countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community. Better access to partner markets and reduction of the external tariff explain virtually all of Cameroon's welfare gain. Bakoup and Tarr quantify the impact on Cameroon of three aspects of its new regional trade agreement with the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (the CEMAC agreement): * Improved access to markets in CEMAC. * Preferential tariff reduction. * Reduction of its external tariff through implementation of the common external tariff of CEMAC. They estimate that Cameroon will gain from the agreement but show how Cameroon's regional market power greatly affects the magnitude of its gains. They assume that Cameroon has regional market power in both imports and exports despite being small in world markets. They find that better access to partner markets and reduction of the external tariff explain virtually all of Cameroon's welfare gain. In their preferred scenario (Cameroon having regional market power), reduction of the external tariff explains three-quarters of the welfare gain. If Cameroon further reduces tariffs to its regional partners, the effect on its economy is a loss of real income but the impact is negligible. Should Cameroom's partners fail to provide tariff-free access to their markets, Bakoup and Tarr estimate that, given Cameroon's regional market power, Cameroon would gain even more from free trade than it would from implementing the CEMAC arrangements. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate the implications of regional trade arrangements.

Context and risks. The pandemic may have a long-lasting impact on CEMAC’s growth potential, which is already curtailed by structural, governance, and transparency issues. The policy response from national and regional authorities in 2020 helped mitigate the economic fallout. CEMAC, however, experienced a severe recession in 2020, fiscal and external deficits increased, and public debt rose with some countries having debt sustainability issues. The region is facing an increasing dilemma between internal and external stability, as external reserves fell sharply between mid-2020 and March 2021. A moderate recovery in economic growth is expected from 2021. Supported by lower than previously projected total external financing of €4.8 billion over 2021–23, international reserves build-up would be slower than pre-pandemic. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and the vaccination program. Other significant risks include delayed implementation of the ongoing or possible new Fund-supported programs, uncertainties in filling large external financing needs, oil prices, and a possible deterioration in the security situation.

African regional trade integration has grown exponentially in the last decade. This book is the first comprehensive analysis of the legal framework within which it is being pursued. It will fill a huge knowledge gap and serve as an invaluable teaching and research tool for policy makers in the public and private sectors, teachers, researchers and students of African trade and beyond. The author argues that African Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) are best understood as flexible legal regimes particularly given their commitment to variable geometry and multiple memberships. He analyzes the progress made toward trade liberalization in each region, how the RTAs are financed, their trade remedy and judicial regimes, and how well they measure up to Article XXIV of GATT. The book also covers monetary unions as well as intra-African regional integration, and examines free trade agreements with non-African regions including the Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union.

Central African Customs and Economic Union (UDEAC) Business Law Handbook - Strategic Information and Basic Laws

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