China has grown rapidly since the reform initiation of the 1970s. China’s Economic Growth Prospects narrates the contribution of demographic transition to recent economic growth in China, and provides suggestions for ways in which it can sustain growth over the next few decades. The expert author provides reasons for the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century; explores the challenges facing China’s long-term sustainability of growth with the disappearance of demographic dividend; and proposes policy suggestions. He concludes that, in order to avoid the middle-income trap, economic growth in China must transform from an inputs-driven pattern, to a productivity-driven pattern. Academics, researchers and students of economics and business, particularly those specialising in China, will find this book to be a useful resource. Investment bankers, journalists, politicians and policy makers will find the discussions of past experience and the future potential of the Chinese economy to be of interest.

After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.

China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions. This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

This book probes into China's economic growth in 2013 and predicts China's development prospects. China’s GDP growth in 2014 continues to slow down, and is expected to be 7.6%, with the CPI stable at a level of 2.5%. With the pressures of structural slowdown, 2014 will be a year of adjustment, and there will be a slowdown in new initiatives to minimize risk. Against a background of policies to stabilize growth, change structures and promote reforms, and in order to assess the sustainability of development and transformation and upgrade of China's provincial regions, this book proposes a system for evaluating the country’s development prospects and expounds economic growth at the provincial level.

Cai Fang is one of China’s most distinguished economists. This book elucidates the worldwide significance of China’s economic development over the past 70 years from the perspectives of economic history and growth theory. The Chinese economy has undergone an unprecedented period of growth and development since the reform and opening-up in the late 1970s; a process which the hallmarks of neoclassic economic theory have often proved inadequate to explain. Examining the Chinese economy in the light of Chinese history and the development of the world economy as a whole, the book charts the milestones and critical reforms of China’s economic development, providing insights into unique attributes as well as more generic patterns. The discussion covers multiple hot topics in the field, including the so-called Great Divergence, dual-sector economic development, real-world experience of the reform and opening-up, rural reform, urbanization, economic reform, poverty reduction, the latter day slowdown of China’s economic growth, and China¡ ̄s role in and response to globalization, global supply domination and other headwinds. The book will be a must-read for students, scholars and general readers interested in the Chinese economy, economic development, political economy, and development economics.

China’s rise as an economic power has posed some challenging questions: how did China achieve GDP growth that was even faster than the Four Asian Tigers? Is the "Chinese model" superior? Why hasn’t the rapid economic growth lead to democracy in the country as many observers expected? And can China sustain its rapid economic growth with its existing social system? Institutions and Chinese Economic Development: A Comparative Historical Approach explores these questions by studying the historical relationship between institutions and economic development in China, drawing comparisons with England, Japan and other Asian economies as appropriate. The investigation focuses on several junctures in China’s economic development: the starting point of the divergence between China and the West; the externally-provoked industrial development in the late 19th century; and the contemporary Chinese Miracle. The analysis foregrounds the role played by Chinese institutions and examines their effects on both the country’s failure to industrialize in the past and its economic achievements in recent time. The book also asks whether, without reform to the existing state institutions, China might still be subject to the historical dynastic cycles today, despite its recent economic success. This work is of great interest to students and scholars of the Chinese economy, economic history and institutional economics, as well as comparative history and Chinese studies more broadly.

Economic growth in China has been exceptionally strong in recent decades, but the country still faces enormous economic problems, including huge poverty, uneven regional development, the problems associated with strengthening capital formation, modernising and making more productive the very large former state sector. This book presents the work of

This book addresses a number of important topics and issues associated with China's economic transition, growth and global integration. The chapters, by a distinguished group of scholars, provide a timely assessment of recent developments in the Chinese economy. The authors employ contemporary economic theory and the latest statistics to analyze the sources and spillover effects of China's growth, to investigate the relationship between growth and business cycle, and to shed light on China's growth prospects in the coming decade. In the context of growth, transition and globalization, the chapters also cover issues such as labour economics, urban efficiency, banking and macroeconomic management. Economic Growth, Transition and Globalization in China is a highly focused and unique work of direct policy relevance and is aimed at an international audience. It is an invaluable combination of rigorous theoretical work and empirical material. This timely book should be an important reference for researchers and students of Asian studies, and the Chinese economy, in particular. It will also appeal to business analysts.

Following Deng Xiaoping's economic reform and opening (Gaige Kaifang) policy, China experienced unprecedented high growth for over three decades. Crucial in the process was the role of Zhu Rongji, who was hand-picked by Deng initially as Executive Vice-Premier and later full Premier to carry through the needed reform and manage the critical marketization process through the turbulent 1990s when China's economy suffered many ups and downs. Dubbed as China's 'Economic Czar', Zhu tackled many thorny problems associated with the country's then half-reformed economy ably and effectively, thereby laying the ground for subsequent periods of greater dynamic growth. Zhu was instrumental in preparing China's economy for its final take-off.The chapters in this volume were originally written as 'policy briefings' for the Singapore government from 1997 to 2003 when Zhu was Premier. They cover a wide variety of topics including how he had applied his own way of 'macroeconomic control' (Hongguan Tiaokong), how he went about reforming taxation, foreign exchange and state-owned enterprises, and finally his embrace of capitalism. Each chapter is preceded by a detailed introduction highlighting the main issues and interpreting them from today's perspective based on updated information and additional new research.

This is the latest Joint Economic Committee volume on the Chinese economy. With the current state of US-China relations and Hong Kong's accession in 1997, the study should provide policy makers in the USA with a useful tool in guiding economic policy toward China.