Economics is changing. In the last few years it has generated a number of new approaches. One of the most promising - complexity economics - was pioneered in the 1980s and 1990s by a small team at the Santa Fe Institute. Economist and complexity theorist W. Brian Arthur led that team, and in this book he collects many of his articles on this new approach. The traditional framework sees behavior in the economy as in an equilibrium steady state. People in the economy face well-defined problems and use perfect deductive reasoning to base their actions on. The complexity framework, by contrast, sees the economy as always in process, always changing. People try to make sense of the situations they face using whatever reasoning they have at hand, and together create outcomes they must individually react to anew. The resulting economy is not a well-ordered machine, but a complex evolving system that is imperfect, perpetually constructing itself anew, and brimming with vitality. The new vision complements and widens the standard one, and it helps answer many questions: Why does the stock market show moods and a psychology? Why do high-tech markets tend to lock in to the dominance of one or two very large players? How do economies form, and how do they continually alter in structure over time? The papers collected here were among the first to use evolutionary computation, agent-based modeling, and cognitive psychology. They cover topics as disparate as how markets form out of beliefs; how technology evolves over the long span of time; why systems and bureaucracies get more complicated as they evolve; and how financial crises can be foreseen and prevented in the future.

This book considers the benefits of complexity, suggesting that economists should become a bit less certain in their policy conclusions. A broader range of models would include agent-based models, which use computational power to deal with specification of models that are far beyond analytic solution; and non-linear dynamic stochastic models, many of which are beyond analytic solution, but whose nature can be discovered by a combination of analytics and computer simulations.

The Instituts Internationaux de Physique et de Chimie fondis par E. Solvay and the Institute of Nonequilibrium systems of Beijing Normal University jointly sponsored a conference on "The Complexity and Self-organization in Socio economic Systems" on October 17-20, 1994 at Beijing, China. The purpose of the conference was to explore the complexity and evolutionary laws of socio economic systems through nonlinear dynamic systems and self-organization theory. The conference was chaired by Professor M. Sanglier and Professor Fang Fukang and was introduced by the Nobel prize winner, Professor I. Prigogine and the vice director of the Chinese National System Reform Committee, Mr. Wu Jie. The conference was held at an important time. On the one hand, the research in the natural sciences about the evolution of complex systems has made great progress, modern scientific theories such as nonlinear dynamic system theory and self-organization theory are becoming more and more mature and a series of methods dealing with these complex systems are being developed which enable us to understand and study non equilibrium, uncertainty and instability. On the other hand, human societies around the world witness a general increase of connectedness, interactivity and an increase of reaction speeds to decisions. In this context, the deterministic, linear way of thinking becomes more and more inadequate and this stimulates the development of non linear science.

A new view of the economy as an evolving, complex system has been pioneered at the Santa Fe Institute over the last ten years, This volume is a collection of articles that shape and define this view?a view of the economy as emerging from the interactions of individual agents whose behavior constantly evolves, whose strategies and actions are always adapting.The traditional framework in economics portrays activity within an equilibrium steady state. The interacting agents in the economy are typically homogenous, solve well-defined problems using perfect rationality, and act within given legal and social structures. The complexity approach, by contrast, sees economic activity as continually changing?continually in process. The interacting agents are typically heterogeneous, they must cognitively interpret the problems they face, and together they create the structures?markets, legal and social institutions, price patters, expectations?to which they individually react. Such structures may never settle down. Agents may forever adapt and explore and evolve their behaviors within structures that continually emerge and change and disappear?structures these behaviors co-create. This complexity approach does not replace the equilibrium one?it complements it.The papers here collected originated at a recent conference at the Santa Fe Institute, which was called to follow up the well-known 1987 SFI conference organized by Philip Anderson, Kenneth Arrow, and David Pines. They survey the new study of complexity and the economy. They apply this approach to real economic problems and they show the extent to which the initial vision of the 1987 conference has come to fruition.

This comprehensive and innovative Handbook applies the tools of the economics of complexity to analyse the causes and effects of technological and structural change. It grafts the intuitions of the economics of complexity into the tradition of analysis based upon the Schumpeterian and Marshallian legacies. The Handbook elaborates the notion of innovation as an emerging property of the organized complexity of an economic system, and provides the basic tools to understand the recursive dynamics between the emergence of innovation and the unfolding of organized complexity. In so doing, it highlights the role of organizational thinking in explaining the introduction of innovations and the dynamics of structural change. With a new methodological approach to the economics of technological change, this wide-ranging volume will become the standard reference for postgraduates, academics and practitioners in the fields of evolutionary economics, complexity economics and the economics of innovation.

This book analyzes the role of institutions in conditioning entrepreneurship and innovation to achieve economic development. Set against the backdrop of populism, this book is based on the premise that formal and informal institutional factors and entrepreneurship are closely linked and that studying the economic development of both developed and emerging economies can help us disentangle the role of entrepreneurship and innovation in developing countries. Using institutional economics as a main theoretical framework and the sociotechnical subsystems as a complementary approach, the authors present a detailed literature review to demonstrate that it is possible to identify the true role of entrepreneurship and innovation in the economic development process. The book embraces complexity to better measure and comprehend economic development, bringing a more compelling perspective on the importance of entrepreneurship and innovation for different dimensions of development. A valuable resource for students, scholars, and policymakers, the authors offer clear recommendations for developing countries.

This book combines the human development approach and innovation economics in order to explore the effects that structural economic change has on human development. While economic diversification can provide valuable new social choices and capabilities, it also tends to lead to more complex decision processes and changes to the set of capabilities required by people to self-determine their future. Within this process of structural transformation, social networks are crucial for accessing information and social support, but networks can also be a root cause of exclusion and inequality reproduction. This implies the need to encourage innovation and economic diversification beyond production expansion, focusing on the promotion of human agency and social inclusion. This book provides such a modern perspective on development economics, emphasizing the role of social networks, economic diversity and entrepreneurship for social welfare. The author discusses how innovation, social networks, economic dynamics and human development are interlinked, and provides several practical examples of social and micro-entrepreneurship in contexts as diverse as Peruvian rural villages and Brazil’s urban areas. The interdisciplinary perspective put forward in this book illustrates theoretical and methodological methods of exploring the complexity of development in a practical and relevant way. It also provides useful information about structural factors which need to be considered by practitioners when designing pro-poor growth policies. Furthermore, the coverage of the core concepts of innovation, networks and development economics, enriched with multiple examples, makes it a valuable resource for scholars and advanced students of modern development economics.

Maps capture data expressing the economic complexity of countries from Albania to Zimbabwe, offering current economic measures and as well as a guide to achieving prosperity Why do some countries grow and others do not? The authors of The Atlas of Economic Complexity offer readers an explanation based on "Economic Complexity," a measure of a society's productive knowledge. Prosperous societies are those that have the knowledge to make a larger variety of more complex products. The Atlas of Economic Complexity attempts to measure the amount of productive knowledge countries hold and how they can move to accumulate more of it by making more complex products. Through the graphical representation of the "Product Space," the authors are able to identify each country's "adjacent possible," or potential new products, making it easier to find paths to economic diversification and growth. In addition, they argue that a country's economic complexity and its position in the product space are better predictors of economic growth than many other well-known development indicators, including measures of competitiveness, governance, finance, and schooling. Using innovative visualizations, the book locates each country in the product space, provides complexity and growth potential rankings for 128 countries, and offers individual country pages with detailed information about a country's current capabilities and its diversification options. The maps and visualizations included in the Atlas can be used to find more viable paths to greater productive knowledge and prosperity.

This book proceeds from a meeting at the Santa Fe Institute where economists and physical and biological scientists came together to discuss a conceptual framework incorporating a more appropriate mathematics with a greatly strengthened capacity to deal simultaneously with multiple variables, nonlinearity, incomplete information and dynamical processes.