Controlling Uncertainty: Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds reviews and discusses the most current research relating to the ways we can control the uncertain world around us. Features reviews and discussions of the most current research in a number of fields relevant to controlling uncertainty, such as psychology, neuroscience, computer science and engineering Presents a new framework that is designed to integrate a variety of disparate fields of research Represents the first book of its kind to provide a general overview of work related to understanding control

A guide to understanding and responding to business uncertainty in the twenty-first century Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Philips, Ford, Apple, and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.

Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.

This book examines uncertainty reduction theory (URT) and research applicable to organizational settings; it proposes a model for a Theory of Managing Uncertainty (TMU). For scholars/students in organizational/interpersonal/group communication.

Management Control and Uncertainty recognizes that all control takes place under conditions of uncertainty: it does now, and it always has done. In this edited collection, the contributing authors examine different aspects of management control systems in the modern world whilst paying more explicit attention to the ubiquitous nature of uncertainty

As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.

Managing Uncertainty by R.H. Rizvi delves into the complexities of navigating and controlling the unpredictable elements of both personal and professional life. This insightful book offers a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing uncertainty, providing practical strategies and tools to handle the unknown with confidence. Rizvi combines theoretical concepts with real-world applications, making the content accessible and actionable. Readers will gain valuable insights into risk assessment, decision-making processes, and the psychological aspects of uncertainty. Whether you're a business leader, a manager, or simply someone looking to better handle life's uncertainties, this book offers a valuable guide to turning unpredictability into opportunity.

A guide to using the computer to come to terms with the risk, insecurity, and ambivalence that are encountered in businesses in a wide range of fields. Matching management techniques with computational equivalents, shows how to use both conflicting and confirming evidence from independent sources to induce, infer, and predict, in ways that will improve decision making. Includes several programs. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

This book studies the variety of organizational strategies selected to cope with critical uncertainties during crises. This research formulates and applies an institutional sense-making model to explain the selection of strategies for coping with uncertainties during crises to answer the question why some organizations select a rule-based strategy to cope with uncertainties, whereas others pursue a more ad hoc-based strategy. It finds that the level of institutionalization does not affect strategy selection in the initial phase of responding to crises; that three rigidity effects can be identified in the selection of sense-making strategies once organizations have faced the failure of their selected strategies; that discontinuities in the feedback loop of sense-making do not necessarily move organizations to switch their sense-making strategies, but interact with institutionalization to contribute to switching sense-making strategies. This book bridges the gap between institutional thinking and crisis management theorizing. A major step forward in the world of crisis management studies! ——Professor Arjen Boin, Leiden University, the Netherlands In a world of increasingly complex, sociotechnical systems interacting in high-risk environments, Professor Lu’s analysis of how organizations manage uncertainty is both timely and profound. ——Professor Louise K. Comfort, Director, Center for Disaster Management, University of Pittsburgh, USA Prof. Lu greatly enhances our understanding of how organizations cope with uncertainty and make sense of their challenges under the pressures of catastrophe. ——Dr. Arnold M. Howitt, Faculty Co-Director, Program on Crisis Leadership, Harvard Kennedy School, USA This book provides not only a theory of crisis management but also a key concept around which research and practice can be conducted. ——Professor Naim Kapucu, Director of School of Public Administration, University of Central Florida, USA A generic institutional model for analyzing and managing hazards, disasters and crises worldwide. ——Professor Joop Koppenjan, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands This book has done an excellent job in opening the black box of how organizations make sense of the crisis situations they face and develop strategies to respond. It should be read by all of us who wish for a peaceful and safe world. ——Professor Lan Xue, Dean of School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, China

3. Textbook for a course in expert systems,if an emphasis is placed on Chapters 1 to 3 and on a selection of material from Chapters 4 to 7. There is also the option of using an additional commercially available sheU for a programming project. In assigning a programming project, the instructor may use any part of a great variety of books covering many subjects, such as car repair. Instructions for mostofthe "weekend mechanic" books are close stylisticaUy to expert system rules. Contents Chapter 1 gives an introduction to the subject matter; it briefly presents basic concepts, history, and some perspectives ofexpert systems. Then itpresents the architecture of an expert system and explains the stages of building an expert system. The concept of uncertainty in expert systems and the necessity of deal ing with the phenomenon are then presented. The chapter ends with the descrip tion of taxonomy ofexpert systems. Chapter 2 focuses on knowledge representation. Four basic ways to repre sent knowledge in expert systems are presented: first-order logic, production sys tems, semantic nets, and frames. Chapter 3 contains material about knowledge acquisition. Among machine learning techniques, a methodofrule learning from examples is explained in de tail. Then problems ofrule-base verification are discussed. In particular, both consistency and completeness oftherule base are presented.