This book, unique in its composition, reviews the academic empirical literature on how CDSs actually work in practice, including during distressed times of market crises. It also discusses the mechanics of single-name and index CDSs, the theoretical costs and benefits of CDSs, as well as comprehensively summarizes the empirical evidence on important aspects of these instruments of risk transfer. Full-time academics, researchers at financial institutions, and students will benefit from the dispassionate and comprehensive summary of the academic literature; they can read this book instead of identifying, collecting, and reading the hundreds of academic articles on the important subject of credit risk transfer using derivatives and benefit from the synthesis of the literature provided.

In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Seit dem Ausbruch der jüngsten Finanzkrise sind Credit Default Swaps (CDS) ins Rampenlicht des akademischen und medialen Interesses gerückt und bilden seitdem den Gegenstand einer kontroversen Diskussion. Auf Europäischer Ebene werden zudem neue regulatorische Rahmenbedingungen eingeführt, die weitreichende Auswirkungen auf den CDS Markt haben werden. Die angesprochenen Kontroversen sowie die bevorstehenden regulatorischen Veränderungen machen den CDS Markt daher zu einem spannenden und wichtigen Forschungsgegenstand. Die vorliegende Dissertation beschäftigt sich in vier Forschungsarbeiten mit den Implikationen des Einsatzes von CDS auf Marktteilnehmer und gibt im speziellen Antworten auf offene Fragen hinsichtlich der Anwendung von Kreditrisikomodellen, des Nutzens und der Risiken von CDS und den Auswirkungen neuer Regulierungen auf den CDS Markt. In Kapitel I werden die theoretischen Grundlagen zur Messung des Kreditrisikos gelegt, wobei der Fokus auf der praktischen Anwendung von Kreditrisikomodellen liegt. Hierbei untersuche ich die zwei gängigsten Kreditrisikomodelle: den firmenwertbasierten sowie den intensitätsbasierten Ansatz. Dabei gewinne ich wichtige Einblicke in den Einsatz von Kreditrisikomodellen im Zusammenhang mit der Nutzung von Kreditderivaten. In Kapitel II werden der Nutzen und die Risiken von CDS unter theoretischen und empirischen Gesichtspunkten einer Analyse unterzogen. Basierend auf der Analyse werden nachfolgend regulatorische Handlungsempfehlungen abgeleitet und diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse zeitigen eine Reihe von Risiken, die sich insbesondere in Krisenzeiten verstärken und daher effektivere zukünftige Regulierungen verlangen. Kapitel III konzentriert sich auf neue regulatorische Anforderungen im CDS Markt. Dabei liegt der Fokus auf der Ausgestaltung der Zentralen Gegenparteien und den Auswirkungen deren Einführung auf die Marktteilnehmer. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Zentrale Gegenparteien ein.

Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Credit Default Swaps (CDS) influence how bonds and loans trade and the relative value between bonds and loans. CDS can be the best way to hedge the risk of a corporate debt position and can also be a valuable investment tool in its own right. CDS has a multitude of nuances to it, from how its structured to how it is priced to how it is traded. If you are going to do analysis of corporate debt, especially in the leveraged finance market, you need to understand CDS. This booklet walks you through the basics of how CDS works, gives some perspective on how it has changed since the 2008 crisis and gives practical examples of how CDS is used and analyzed for corporate issuers. It is a valuable summary for anyone looking to do corporate credit analysis.

In times of distress when a country loses access to markets, there is evidence that credit default swap (CDS) spreads are a leading indicator for sovereign risk than the EMBI+ sub-index for the country. However, it is not easy to discern the variables that determine the level of CDS spreads in Emerging Markets (EM); traders only quote the CDS spreads and not the inputs that are required to calculate such spreads. This note provides some evidence from Argentina and Brazil that reveals inconsistency between theory and practice in pricing CDS spreads in EM. This note suggests an alternate methodology that links CTD (cheapest-to-deliver) bonds to recovery values assumed in CDS contracts. Furthermore, special features that pertain to CDS contracts (repo specialness, short squeezes by central banks) may also magnify the financial distress of a sovereign.

Derivatives markets are an important and growing segment of financial markets and play an important role in the management of risk.This invaluable set of lecture notes is meant to be used in conjunction with a standard textbook on derivatives in an advanced undergraduate or MBA elective course on futures, forwards, swaps, options, corporate securities, and credit default swaps. It covers the foundations of derivatives pricing in arbitrage-free markets, develops the methodology of risk-neutral valuation, and discusses hedging and the management of risk.

Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: Credit default swaps are by far the most often traded credit derivatives and the credit default swap markets have seen tremendous growth over the past two decades. Put simply, a credit default swap is a tradeable contract that provides insurance against the default of a certain debtor. Initially, when the first form of a credit default swap (CDS) was traded in 1991, they were mainly used by commercial banks in order to lay off credit risk to insurance companies. However, focus shifted in the subsequent years as new players entered the market. Hedge funds became big players, money managers and reinsurers entered, and banks started to not only buy protection on their assets but also sell protection in order to diversify their portfolios. All this led to today s CDS market being dominated by investors rather than banks and, as a consequence, CDSs are now structured to meet investors needs instead of those of the banks. Over the same time as this shift to an investor orientated market took place, CDS markets grew at an astonishing rate with notional amount outstanding pretty much doubling every year until peaking in the second half of 2007 at USD 62,173.20 billions. The need to effciently transfer credit risk as well as the increasing standardization of CDS contracts by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association propelled this development. Only in 2008 did the notional amount outstanding in CDSs retract for the first time and come down to USD 31,223.10 billion in the first half of 2009. A partial reason was the full blown financial crisis in which CDSs also played a prominent role. The demise of Lehman Brothers, for example, triggered roughly USD 400 billion in protection payments and American International Group needed to be bailed out in 2008 because it had sold too much CDS protection. Amongst other concerns, these incidents highlight the systemic importance of CDSs. Combined with the phenomenal growth of CDS markets, this makes CDSs a highly relevant component of the current ?nancial environment and a fruitful subject for academic research. Today, just like most other financial instruments, CDSs serve a multitude of purposes spanning hedging, speculation, and arbitrage. The aim of this thesis is to explore these uses further and answer the following research questions: What CDS trading strategies are commonly used and how does a selection of these strategies CDS curve trades including forward CDSs, [...]

Scientific Essay from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , language: English, abstract: Warren Buffet, the world’s richest man, once said that derivatives are financial “weapons of mass destruction.” a term popularized by George W. Bush to describe nuclear arms. Indeed financial derivatives have a far greater impact on the market than their underlying due to their leverage effect. And the most popular and important credit derivatives nowadays are credit default swaps with a current notional value of over 60 trillion US dollars according to ISDA 1 (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) and 58 trillion US dollars according to BIS 2 (Bank for international settlement) respectively. That is more than the whole world’s gross domestic product in the same year! 3 This paper examines the empirical relationship of CDS premium and credit spread by testing on their theoretical equivalence derived by Duffie (1999). It begins with an overview of CDS followed by the theoretical framework. The analysis starts with explanation of testing methods and description of data. After confirming the existence of the basis spread, this paper goes on to analyse the interactions of CDS spread and Bond spread using econometrics methods like Cointegration and Granger Causality tests. Also examined is the leadership of price discovery process between CDS market and traditional bond market.

This book provides a comprehensive overview for various segments of the global credit default swap (CDS) markets, touching upon how they were affected by the recent financial turmoil. The book uses empirical analysis on credit default swap markets, applying advanced econometric methodologies to the time series data. It covers not only well-studied sovereign credit default swap markets but also sector credit default swap indices (i.e., CDS index for the banking sector) and corporate credit default swap indices (i.e., Markit iTraxx Japan CDS index), which have not been fully examined by the previous literature. The book also investigates causality and co-movement among several credit default swap markets, or between CDS and other financial markets.