We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in government bond yields in Emerging Europe, as well as sizable increases in sovereign spreads, domestic currency depreciations, and significantly lower output. Model simulations using a two-country DSGE calibrated to the euro area and its Eastern European neighbors reveal that a conventional tightening, achieved through interest rate increases, provides a more favorable inflation-output trade-off compared to balance sheet tightenings. The extent of spillovers from quantitative tightening depends on the speed of balance sheet reduction, and it is larger under a fixed exchange rate regime.

Economic growth has tumbled across Europe, inflation remains too high, and financial sector risks have materialized. Taming sticky inflation while avoiding financial stress and a recession will require tighter macroeconomic policies—tailored to changing financial conditions, stronger financial regulation and supervision, and bolder supply-side reforms that heal scars from the COVID-19 and energy crises.

Proceedings of a conference co-hosted by the Bank of Albania and the International Monetary Fund in May 2017.

This volume collects selected papers on the European Union from the 13th Congress of the International Economic Association held in Lisbon, September 2002. It starts with an address by Romano Prodi, President of the European Commission, who sets the tone for the other papers by describing and evaluating two of the greatest accomplishments of the EU: economic and monetary union, and EU enlargement. Other authors deal in detail with various aspects of these and other issues, using a mixture of theoretical, empirical, and other tools.

Global spillovers have entered a new phase. With crisis-related spillovers and risks fading, changing growth patterns are the main source of spillovers in the global economy at this juncture. Two key trends are highly relevant here. First, signs of self-sustaining recovery in some advanced economies indicate that the unwinding of exceptional monetary accommodation will proceed and lead to a tightening of global financial conditions in the coming years. An uneven recovery, though, suggests normalization will proceed at different times in different countries, with possible spillover implications. Second, growth in emerging markets is slowing on a broad basis since its precrisis peak and can carry noticeable spillover effects at the global level. Model code and programs used for the spillover simulations can be made available. Data used for the empirical analysis can be made available unless restricted by copyright or confidentiality issues.

For a sample of 83 financial institutions during 2003–2011, this paper attempts to answer three questions: first, what is the evolution of banks’ stock price exposure to country-level and global risk factors as approximated by equity indices; second, which bank-specific characteristics explain these risk exposures; third, are there clusters of banks with equity price linkages beyond market risk factors. The paper finds a rise in sensitivities to both country and global risk factors in 2011, although on average to levels still below those of the subprime crisis. The average sensitivity to European risk, specifically, has been steadily rising since 2008. Banks that are reliant on wholesale funding, have weaker capital levels and low valuations, and higher exposures to crisis countries are found to be the most vulnerable to shocks. The analysis of bank-to-bank linkages suggests that any “globalization” of the euro area crisis is likely to be channelled through U.K. and U.S. banks, with little evidence of direct spillover effects to other regions.

An authoritative reference work on the legal framework of European economic and monetary union, this book comprehensively analyses the legal foundations, institutions, and substantive legal issues in EU monetary integration.

Tangled Governance addresses the institutions that were deployed to fight the euro crisis, reestablish financial stability in Europe, and prevent contagion to the rest of the world. Henning explains why European leaders chose to include the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the crisis response and provides a detailed account of the decisions of the institutions that make up the troika (the European Commission, European Central Bank, and IMF). He examines the institutions negotiating strategies, the outcomes of their interaction, and the effectiveness of their cooperation. The institutional strategies of key member states, including Germany and the United States, are also explored in this study. The book locates its analysis within the framework of regime complexity, involving clusters of overlapping and intersecting regional and multilateral institutions. It tests conjectures in the regime-complexity literature against the seven cases of financial rescues of euro area countries that were stricken by crises between 2010 and 2015. Tangled Governance concludes that states use some institutions to control others, that complexity is the consequence of a strategy to control agency drift. States mediate conflicts among institutions and thereby limit fragmentation of the regime complex and underpin substantive efficacy. In reaching these conclusions, the book also answers several key puzzles, including why Germany and other northern European countries supported IMF inclusion despite its adopting positions opposed to their preferences; why crisis fighting arrangements endured intense conflicts among the institutions; and, finally, why the United States and the IMF promoted further steps to complete the monetary union.

This Financial Sector Stability Assessment report reviews economic development and different fiscal policies in Austria. The global crisis has revealed weaknesses in Austria’s financial stability policy framework, and recent changes at the European levels provide an opportunity to address these. Stress test results indicate that under adverse medium-term scenarios, virtually all Austrian banks, including all internationally active institutions, would meet regulatory capital requirements, and are resilient to funding and contagion risks. The Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) and the central bank (OeNB) collaborate effectively in performing banking supervision, including on a cross-border basis.

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.