Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

This book uses two international frameworks—the Millennium Development Goals and the Hyogo Framework for Action, a program focused on disaster risk management—to study the key trends in the region in terms of disaster incidence, sources of vulnerability and social and economic challenges. As both frameworks draw to a close, international debate is taking place during the period 2012–2015 on their current progress. This book seeks to help readers understand the process better. The chapters are written by eight independent internationally based authors. Collectively, they have extensive regional experience in the areas of disaster risk management and climate change as well as working in academia, research, consultancy, the UN and international agencies, government and the NGO sector. The analysis presented benefits from their varied backgrounds in medicine, architecture, economics, engineering, planning, social studies, development studies and political science. Throughout the book, relevant examples, drawn from the region, are included to ‘earth’ the project in the harsh realities of risk and disaster impact.

"A survey of the economy of the Pacific Rim region"--

Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.

This is a prepublication excerpt of Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific.

Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

This book provides a contemporary overview of the social-ecological and economic vulnerabilities that produce food and nutrition insecurity in various small island contexts, including both high islands and atolls, from the Pacific to the Caribbean. It examines the historical and contemporary circumstances that have accompanied the shift from subsistence production to the consumption of imported, processed foods and drinks, and the impact of this transition on nutrition and the rise of non-communicable diseases. It also assesses the challenges involved in reversing this trend, and how more effective social and economic policies, agricultural and fisheries strategies, and governance arrangements could promote more resilient and sustainable small island food systems. It offers both theoretical and practical perspectives, and brings together a broad range of policy areas, e.g. agriculture, food, commerce, health, planning and socio-economic policy. Given its scope, the book offers a valuable resource for a range of disciplines in a number of regional contexts, and for the growing number of scholars and practitioners working on and in small island states. It will be of particular value as the first book to examine the diversity and commonalities of island states around the globe as they confront issues of food security.