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Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.

Why is the world not moving fast enough to solve the climate crisis? Politics stand in the way, but experts hope that green investments, compensation, and retraining could unlock the impasse. However, these measures often lack credibility. Not only do communities fear these policies could be reversed, but they have seen promises broken before. Uncertain Futures proposes solutions to make more credible promises that build support for the energy transition. It examines the perspectives of workers, communities, and companies, arguing that the climate impasse is best understood by viewing the problem from the ground up. Featuring voices on the front lines such as a commissioner in Carbon County deciding whether to welcome wind, executives at energy companies searching for solutions, mayors and unions in Minnesota battling for local jobs, and fairgoers in coal country navigating their uncertain future, this book contends that making economic transitions work means making promises credible.

An original contribution to our understanding of a phenomenon that is reshaping the world, this title thoroughly discusses the transformation of the energy security policy arena brought on by two dramatic developments – the increased potential availability of energy in many parts of the world on the supply side, and on the demand side increasing concerns over the harmful effects on the environment brought on by the use of fossil fuels. An in depth discussion specifically focuses on what energy security means to different countries, and examines which of those countries appear to be managing their energy/climate transitions successfully and which are having a more difficult time adapting to the new environment. Part 1 introduces the topic, covering the main themes and provides an overview of the chapters Part 2 provides a framework for policy evaluation, considering the evolving factors affecting energy security and the energy/climate policy trilemma Parts 3 to 6 discuss energy transitions in the carbon producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Russia, Mexico), in intermediate carbon/producing/consuming countries (China, United States, UK, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa), in carbon consuming countries (Germany, Japan, South Korea, Israel, India, Spain) and finally in carbon reduction countries (France, Denmark, Switzerland) Part 7 looks at attempts at regional/international cooperation Part 8 considers the prospects for the future, examining technological breakthroughs. This title builds on the theme of unfolding energy transformations driven by, but increasingly constrained by climate/environmental considerations. It is ideal for researchers and students in the areas of environmental politics and policy, climate change, and energy and climate security, as well as for academics and professionals.

Providing critical insights that will interest readers ranging from economists to environmentalists, policymakers, and politicians, this book analyzes the economics and technology trends involved in the dilemma of decarbonization and addresses why aggressive policy is required in a capitalist political economy to create a sea change away from fossil fuels. The environmental damage across the globe is a result of the success of capitalist industrialism—250 years of carbon pollution resulting from consumption of fossil fuels to drive the economy and the worldwide aspiration to ever-increasing levels of economic development. But capitalism has also produced the tools to solve the problems it has created in the form of a technological revolution in low-carbon renewables, distributed resources, and intelligent systems to integrate supply and demand. This book comprehensively examines the political economy of electricity and analyzes the challenge of transforming today's electricity sector to meet the dual goals of decarbonization and development expressed in the Paris Agreement. Author Mark Cooper defines the dilemma of development and decarbonization as the great challenge facing the electricity industry and documents how the economic resources costs of a 100 percent-renewable portfolio has declined to the point that decarbonization can pay for itself, making the low-carbon renewable technologies that enable desired environmental and public-health benefits an easy sell. He identifies the substantial benefit of increasing use of information, communications, and advanced control technologies; shows how targeted innovation could speed the transition by a decade or two and lower the overall cost of the transition by as much as half; and explains why the flexible, multi-stakeholder approach of the Paris Agreement is the correct approach.

Following the success of its predecessor, this second edition of The Future of Energy Use provides essential analysis of the use of different forms of energy and their environmental and social impacts. It examines conventional, nuclear and renewable sources and technologies, using relevant case studies and providing a vital link between technology and related policy issues. The new edition has been comprehensively developed and updated, including new text, diagrams and tables, with entire new sections that reflect the significant changes that have occurred since the first edition. New material includes: a stronger focus on climate change policy and energy security; a discussion of the long run marginal costs of oil; coverage of the biofuels debate in both the developed and developing worlds; an outline of developments in the built environment (including transport issues); and the relationship between behaviour and energy use. It reviews policy shifts with relation to energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, combined heat and power, and combined cycle gas turbines. There is new coverage of nuclear waste, storage and proliferation, and new material on microgeneration and biofuels, as well as essential new information on carbon markets and the hydrogen economy. The result is a unique introduction and guide to all the vital issues within energy for students, academics and professionals new to the field.

The profitability of power plant investments depends strongly on uncertain fuel and carbon prices. In this doctoral thesis, we combine fundamental electricity market models with stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate power plant investments under uncertainty. The application of interpolation-based stochastic dynamic programming and approximate dynamic programming allows us to consider a greater variety of stochastic fuel and carbon price scenarios compared to other approaches.