This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia’s fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past.

This Technical Assistance Report discusses the technical advice and recommendations given by the IMF mission to the authorities of Armenia regarding design of fiscal rules and associated fiscal and institutional frameworks. Armenia has made significant strides in enhancing macroeconomic stability over the past two decades. Although Armenia’s public debt remains sustainable, a prolonged adjustment is needed to restore sizable fiscal buffers, warranting an upgrade of the fiscal rule framework. The existing debt-rule-based framework provides insufficient operating guidance to fiscal policy and is not flexible enough to deal with severe economic shocks. Mechanisms to deal with a potential breach of the 60 percent debt ceiling and the 50 percent debt brake are excessively restrictive and need to be overhauled.

The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.

Society is now facing challenges for which the traditional management toolbox is increasingly inadequate. Well-grounded theoretical frameworks, such as systems thinking and cybernetics, offer general level interpretation schemes and models that are capable of supporting understanding of complex phenomena and are not impacted by the passage of time. This book serves the knowledge society to address the complexity of decision making and problem solving in the 21st century with contributions from systems and cybernetics. A multi-disciplinary approach has been adopted to support diversity and to develop inter- and trans-disciplinary knowledge within the shared thematic of problem solving and decision making in the 21st century. Its conceptual thread is cyber/systemic thinking, and its realisation is supported by a wide network of scientists on the basis of a highly participative agenda. The book provides a platform of knowledge sharing and conceptual frameworks developed with multi-disciplinary perspectives, which are useful to better understand the fast changing scenario and the complexity of problem solving in the present time.

With more than 200 entries on countries and territories throughout the world, this bestselling volume is the most authoritative one-stop source for findingfacts and analysis on each country's governmental and political makeup.