This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. External debt carries additional risks since large devaluation of the real exchange rate can suddenly raise default probabilities. Consistent with majority views, fiscal consolidations are counterproductive in the short and medium runs. When an economy approaches its fiscal limits, government spending can be less expansionary than in a low-debt state. As more revenue is required to service debt in a high-debt state, higher tax rates raise the economic cost of increasing consumption, reducing the fiscal multiplier.

This annual report provides detailed information on the amount and composition of the external debt of each of 172 countries and territories at the end of 1997, with corresponding revised figures for 1996.

This annual report provides detailed information on the amount and composition of the external debt of each of 171 countries and territories at the end of 1996, with corresponding revised figures for 1995 as well as estimates of amortisation payments due in 1997.

The external debt burden of many low-income developing countries has increased significantly since the 1970s. Developments in a sample of ten countries show that the main factors behind the buildup of debt were (1) exogenous (adverse terms of trade shocks or weather), (2) a lack of sustained macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms, (3) nonconcessional lending arid refinancing policies of creditors, (4) inadequate debt management, and (5) political factors (civil war and social strife). Future policies should limit the need for external financing and create an environment conducive to diversifying export growth, managing debt more prudently, and basing economic projections on more cautious assumptions.

This publication is the World Bank's annual review of recent trends in and prospects for financial flows to developing countries. It also contains the Bank's projections of the global outlook in light of current global geopolitical uncertainties. It describes a fundamental shift that has occurred in the pattern of private sector financial flows to developing countries. Debt flows have fallen sharply, while equity flows have remained comparatively robust. This shift from debt to equity should diminish the volatility of developing countries' external finance and improve their access to technology, markets, and management expertise. Recovery though has been weak due to broader geopolitical and financial market uncertainties.

Mounting external debt and large-scale capital flight have been at the forefront of Africa's economic problems since the 1980s. External Debt and Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa, edited by S. Ibi Ajayi and Mohsin S. Khan, takes a penetrating look at debt and capital flight during the 1990s in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. The book describes the size and composition of debt in the selected countries and examines the causes of the debt buildup. It also assesses the extent of capital flight and suggests ways of stemming the flight of financial resources.

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