This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Theory volume consists of an introduction and nine additional chapters devoted to key theoretical issues regarding the dynamics of nuclear weapons (non) proliferation.

This new Handbook is a comprehensive examination of the rich and complex issues of nuclear proliferation in the early 21st century. The future of the decades-long effort to prevent the further spread of weapons of mass destruction is at a crossroads today. If international nonproliferation efforts are to be successful, an integrated, multi-tiered response will almost certainly be necessary. A serious, thorough, and clear-eyed examination of the range of threats, challenges, and opportunities facing the international community is a necessary first step. This Handbook, which presents the most up-to-date analysis and policy recommendations on these critical issues by recognized, leading scholars in the field, intends to provide such an examination. The volume is divided into three major parts: Part I presents detailed threat assessments of proliferation risks across the globe, including specific regions and countries. Part II explains the various tools developed by the international community to address these proliferation threats. Part III addresses the proliferation risks and political challenges arising from nuclear energy production, including potential proliferation by aspiring states and nonstate groups. This Handbook will be of great interest to students and practitioners of nuclear proliferation, arms control, global governance, diplomacy, and global security and IR general.

The chapters of this proposed volume are intended to shed light on the diverse themes surrounding this very important issue area in international security. Each of the six major sections addresses an aspect of nuclear proliferation that will be critical in determining the future trajectory of global politics in the years to come. The first section examines the major thematic issues underlying the contemporary discourse on nuclear proliferation. How do we understand this period in proliferation? What accounts for a taboo on the use of nuclear weapons so far and will it survive? What is the present state of nuclear deterrence models built during the Cold War? What is the relationship between the pursuit of civilian nuclear energy and the risks of proliferation? Why are we witnessing a move away from non-proliferation to counter-proliferation? The second section gives an overview of the evolving nuclear policies of the five established nuclear powers: the USA, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and the People's Republic of China. Section three looks at the three de facto nuclear states: India, Pakistan and Israel. The fourth section examines the three problem areas in the proliferation matrix today – Iran, North Korea and the potent mix of non-state actors and nuclear weapons. The fifth section sheds light on an important issue often ignored during discussions of nuclear proliferation – cases where states have made a deliberate policy choice of either renouncing their nuclear weapons programme, or have decided to remain a threshold state. The cases of South Africa, Egypt and Japan will be the focus of this section. The final section will examine the present state of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime, which most observers agree is currently facing a crisis of credibility. The three pillars of this regime – the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) – will be examined. This is followed by an analysis of the present trends and prospects for US-Russia nuclear arms control. The impact of missile defenses and the US-India civilian nuclear energy co-operation pact will be examined so as to ascertain whether they have weakened or strengthened the global non-proliferation regime. The chapters in this volume aim to document the increasing complexity of the global nuclear proliferation dynamic and the inability of the international community to come to terms with a rapidly changing strategic milieu. The future, in all likelihood, will be very different from the past, and the chapters in this volume will try to develop a framework that may help gain a better understanding of the forces that will shape the nuclear proliferation debate in the years to come. Proposed Contents Introduction – Overview Part 1: Thematic Issues The Second Nuclear Age The Nuclear Taboo Nuclear Deterrence Nuclear Energy and Non-Proliferation Non-Proliferation and Counter Proliferation Non-State Actors and Nuclear Weapons Part 2: The Five Nuclear Powers USA Russia United Kingdom France People's Republic of China Part 3: De Facto Nuclear States India Pakistan Israel Part 4: The ‘Problem’ States Iran North Korea Part 5: The ‘Threshold’ States South Africa Japan Egypt Part 6: The Global Non-Proliferation Regime The NPT The CTBT The FMCT US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control The Impact of Missile Defenses The US-India Nuclear Deal The Future: What It May Hold In Store Conclusion

Exploring what we know—and don't know—about how nuclear weapons shape American grand strategy and international relations The world first confronted the power of nuclear weapons when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. The global threat of these weapons deepened in the following decades as more advanced weapons, aggressive strategies, and new nuclear powers emerged. Ever since, countless books, reports, and articles—and even a new field of academic inquiry called “security studies”—have tried to explain the so-called nuclear revolution. Francis J. Gavin argues that scholarly and popular understanding of many key issues about nuclear weapons is incomplete at best and wrong at worst. Among these important, misunderstood issues are: how nuclear deterrence works; whether nuclear coercion is effective; how and why the United States chose its nuclear strategies; why countries develop their own nuclear weapons or choose not to do so; and, most fundamentally, whether nuclear weapons make the world safer or more dangerous. These and similar questions still matter because nuclear danger is returning as a genuine threat. Emerging technologies and shifting great-power rivalries seem to herald a new type of cold war just three decades after the end of the U.S.-Soviet conflict that was characterized by periodic prospects of global Armageddon. Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy helps policymakers wrestle with the latest challenges. Written in a clear, accessible, and jargon-free manner, the book also offers insights for students, scholars, and others interested in both the history and future of nuclear danger.

Contemporary fears of rogue state nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism pose unique challenges for the global community. This book offers a unique approach by examining why states that have the military capability to severely damage a proliferating state’s nuclear program instead choose to pursue coercive diplomacy. The author argues cognitive psychological influences, including the trauma derived from national tragedies like the September 11th attacks and the Holocaust, and a history of armed conflict increase the threat perceptions of foreign policy decision-makers when confronting a state perceived to be challenging the existing power structure by pursuing a nuclear weapon. The powerful state’s degree of perceived threat, combined with its national security policies, military power projection capabilities, and public support then influence whether it will take no action, use coercive diplomacy/sanctions, or employ military force to address the weaker state’s nuclear ambitions.

How viable is the resolution of nuclear non-proliferation disputes through the International Court of Justice and international arbitration? James Fry examines the compromissory clauses in the IAEA Statute, IAEA Safeguards Agreements and the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material that give jurisdiction to these fora and analyses recent jurisprudence to demonstrate how legal resolution can handle such politically sensitive disputes. In sum, legal resolution of nuclear non-proliferation disputes represents an option that States and commentators have all too often ignored. The impartiality and procedural safeguards of legal resolution should make it an acceptable option for target States and the international community, especially vis-à-vis the procedural shortcomings and general heavy-handedness of Security Council involvement under UN Charter Chapter VII.

Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East remains an issue of concern. Saudi Arabia’s actions will largely rest on Iran’s decisions, and discussions and preparations within Saudi Arabia would suggest that it is ready to react to potential shifts in the region’s nuclear powers. Saudi Arabia and Nuclear Weapons uses an "inside out" approach that emphasises the Saudis’ own national interests in relation to the nuclear threat, and their understanding of the role of nuclear weapons in defense, foreign policy and the concept of deterrence. It is the first study with comprehensive use of the local Arabic language military and civilian media to provide this understanding of official thinking and policy. The Saudi case study is contextualised against the prevailing proliferation models, to conclude that the Saudi case shares both commonalities and elements of uniqueness with other proliferation cases, implying the need for a ‘multi-causal’ approach. Its comparative analysis also suggests potential implications applicable more broadly to the issue of nuclear proliferation. A comprehensive study of Saudi Arabia’s attitude to nuclear weapons, this book offers an exploration of nuclear proliferation that would interest students, scholars and policymakers working in Middle East studies, as well as Military and nuclear proliferation studies.

An authoritative and unbiased guide to nuclear technology and the controversies that surround it. Are you for nuclear power or against it? What's the basis of your opinion? Did you know a CT scan gives you some 2 millisieverts of radiation? Do you know how much a millisievert is? Does irradiation make foods safer or less safe? What is the point of a bilateral Russia-US nuclear weapons treaty in a multipolar world? These are nuclear questions that call for nuclear choices, and this book equips citizens to make these choices informed ones. It explains, clearly and accessibly, the basics of nuclear technology and describes the controversies surrounding its use.

"Draws on papers originally presented at Nobel Symposium 142 ... on 'Peace, stability and nuclear order : theoretical assumptions, historical experiences, future challenges.' The conference took place at Oscarsborg ... on 25-27 June 2009, and gathered close to 30 international experts"--Page xii-xiii

Offers an original and timely contribution to the nuclear ethics debate Examines the moral dilemmas of state and non-state actor nuclear proliferation Will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, ethics, international relations and international security