Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the pandemic under control, if financial stress triggers defaults, or if there are protracted effects on households and firms. Economic disruptions are likely to be more severe and protracted in emerging market and developing economies with larger domestic outbreaks and weaker medical care systems; greater exposure to international spillovers through trade, tourism, and commodity and financial markets; weaker macroeconomic frameworks; and more pervasive informality and poverty. Beyond the current steep economic contraction, the pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars on the global economy by undermining consumer and investor confidence, human capital, and global value chains. Being mostly a reflection of the recent plunge in global energy demand, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much of a boost to global growth in the near term. While policymakers' immediate priorities are to address the health crisis and moderate the short-term economic losses, the likely long-term consequences of the pandemic highlight the need to forcefully undertake comprehensive reform programs to improve the fundamental drivers of economic growth, once the crisis abates. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.

The 2024 edition of the United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects report comes amid stark global economic inequalities and high geopolitical tensions. While rich economies have largely bounced back from the COVID-19 pandemic, developing economies have lost ground. Many are drowning in debt, with more than a third at risk of crisis. Investment in climate action and sustainable development is falling woefully short. Hunger and poverty are on the rise. And growing divisions between countries and economies are preventing an effective response. As this report makes clear, 2024 is projected to be another tough year. Sluggish global growth is projected to slow further. Investment will remain weak. The debt crisis will continue to spiral, as debt service obligations reach new heights. Devastating conflicts and escalating extreme weather are bringing uncertainty and risk to the global economy.

This book examines the statistics of the G-20 members with the goal of providing an analysis of their economic policies, with a particular emphasis on the financial dynamics of each country's Balance of Payments, in order to offer a framework for better understanding where we are headed in an era of great economic and geopolitical reconfiguration. Furthermore, it delves into the current challenges to the US-led monopolar world that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union, beginning with the rise of China and India alongside Russia, and their potential role in reshaping the global financial system. The focus also extends to South America, where economies such as Brazil and Argentina are navigating complex relationships with traditional allies and emerging global powers. Africa's position in this evolving landscape is also analyzed, highlighting its growing autonomy as exemplified by the African Union's inclusion in the G-20. Furthermore, the Middle East is undergoing a remarkable geopolitical shift, undoubtedly representing another node of power in the emerging economic chessboard. These geopolitical dynamics are further complicated by major global events, including the 2008 global financial crisis, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict in 2022. Pressing challenges are also posed by the climate emergency, highlighting its direct impact on productivity and migration patterns. Finally, this book seeks to contribute to a nuanced understanding of the current economic realities of key global actors and their complex interplay with geopolitical choices. Based on a scholarly approach, the analysis provides insights into the complex and evolving global order.

In 2023, the combined GDP of the LDCs was 10 per cent below the level it would have reached had the pre-pandemic (2010-2019) growth trend been sustained. As a result, at least an additional 15 million people in LDCs are now living in extreme poverty, with their governments severely constrained in their ability to sustain adequate investments in public services or invest in advancing development progress. The Report highlights the urgent need for concerted action to restore fiscal space in LDCs through the lasting resolution of the debt crisis, reform of the international financial architecture, and the mobilization of climate finance to enable needed investments towards low-carbon transition and green structural transformation. Without which, the SDGs and sustainable development cannot be realised. The Report advances several recommendations aimed at advancing the reform of global development finance, which in its current state, is deficient in terms of its quantity, quality, structure, cost and ease of accessibility. The Report also contains a detailed analysis of the possible role of central banks in shaping the financing of sustainable development and green structural transformation in LDCs. While the contribution of central banks to dealing with climate change has been discussed in developed countries, this is the first time this type of analysis is done in the context of the LDCs.

There are signs that the global outlook has begun to brighten. Activity remains more resilient than expected, although with considerable divergence across economies, inflation is falling steadily and unemployment remains low. Global growth is projected to remain unchanged in 2024 and strengthen modestly in 2025, with inflation returning to target in most countries by the end of 2025.

The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.