The report The Euro Area Crisis (HL 260) concludes that the optimum outcome from the December European Council meeting would have been for an agreement on a new treaty to be signed by all Member States, to deal with the crisis and to protect UK interests. As this did not happen the Government did not publish the safeguards which the Prime Minister sought. The Committee now calls upon them to do so. The Committee warns that there is a risk of discussions shifting from the main European Union (EU) channels, to forums where the UK has no voice which could marginalise the UK's influence in Europe over time. In the Committee's view the UK, the other Member States, and the EU institutions must find a way to secure fiscal integration for the Euro Area States, while at the same time protecting the integrity of the single market as an engine of economic growth for all 27 Member States of the EU. The proposed treaty raises a number of legal issues which th

What began as a relatively localized crisis in Greece in early 2010 soon escalated to envelop Ireland and Portugal. By the second half of 2011, the contagion had spread to the far larger economies of Italy and Spain. In mid-September the Peterson Institute and Bruegel hosted a conference designed to contribute to the formulation of policies that could help resolve the euro area debt crisis. This volume presents the conference papers; several are updated through end-2011. European experts examine the political context in Greece (Loukas Tsoukalis), Ireland (Alan Ahearne), Portugal (Pedro Lourtie), Spain (Guillermo de la Dehesa), Italy (Riccardo Perissich), Germany (Daniela Schwarzer), and France (Zaki La�di). Lessons from past debt restructurings are then examined by Jeromin Zettelmeyer (economic) and Lee Buchheit (legal). The two editors separately consider the main current policy issues: debt sustainability by country, private sector involvement and contagion, alternative restructuring approaches, how to assemble a large emergency financing capacity, whether the European Central Bank (ECB) should be a lender of last resort, whether joint-liability "eurobonds" would be feasible and desirable, and the implications of a possible break-up of the euro area. The luncheon address by George Soros and a description (by Steven R. Weisman with Silvia B. Merler) of the policy simulation game played on the second day of the conference complete the volume. Involving market participants and experts representing the roles of euro area governments, the ECB, IMF, G-7, and credit rating agencies, the game led to a proposal for leveraging the capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility through arrangements with the ECB.

First came the financial and debt crisis in Greece, then government financing difficulties and rescue programs in Ireland in 2010 and Portugal in 2011. Before long, Italy and Spain were engulfed by financial contagion as well. Finally in 2012, the European Central Bank pledged to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro area with purchases of government bonds, a step that achieved impressive results, according to William R. Cline in this important new book. One of the world's leading experts on fiscal and debt issues, Cline mobilizes meticulously researched and forceful arguments to trace the history of the euro area debt crisis and makes projections of future debt sustainability. He argues that euro area leaders made the right decision to keep the euro from breaking apart but warns against complacency about the future. Cline contends that troubled European economies should continue their fiscal consolidation but that further debt restructurings for most countries are not called for. Greece is a special case and may need some further debt relief contingent on continued progress on fiscal and structural reform, however. In this landmark study, Cline offers a detailed analysis of the mistakes, successes, and options for Europe as it struggles to overcome its worst economic disaster since World War II.

The Eurozone has exited recession and there are positive indications of progress in countries such as Ireland, Portugal and Spain; but the report Euro Area Crisis: An Update (HL 163) concludes that the Eurozone remains weak and vulnerable. Despite some countries showing signs of recovery, the report finds that fundamental weaknesses still exist such as: poor growth; huge differences in prosperity between Member States destructively high levels of unemployment; and growing fears of a deflationary spiral. These weaknesses leave the Eurozone extremely vulnerable to future shocks. The Committee also repeats its warning to the Government that the UK is becoming increasingly isolated as the euro area knits closer together. In order to ensure the UK's interests are effectively promoted, the Government and the Bank of England should maintain and develop constructive relationships with the increasingly

Among member states, many structural weaknesses were exposed when economic performance declined significantly and financial markets became more discerning. This book focuses on the analytical underpinnings of real-time policy advice given to euro area policymakers during four cycles of the IMF’s annual Article IV consultations (2012–15) with euro area authorities.

The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.

This book examines public debt hoarding within the Euro Area, which is one of the most complicated challenges regarding modern fiscal policy-making. The author offers an up-to-date analysis of the fiscal situations of Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece. The book describes key mechanisms of debt transmission, discusses the potential establishment of fiscal and debt union in the EU, identifies numerous implications, and connects the fiscal positions of the examined countries with the structural flaws of the Euro Area and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Moreover, the work presents an estimation of structural budget balances, including a comparison with the estimates of major international institutions such as the IMF, OECD, and European Commission. A separate chapter is devoted to analysing the fiscal policy determinants, using time series since the late 19th century, and the issue of fiscal policy efficiency. Finally, the work provides an overview of debt resolution options. Overall, this book offers eight core chapters intended for the public, professional economists, and policymakers.

This Selected Issues paper discusses the risks of low growth and inflation over the medium term for the euro area. It examines the consequences of longer term trends that predate the crisis and the progress made in addressing the crisis legacies of high unemployment and debt. The paper illustrates, in a downside scenario, how low potential growth and crisis legacies leave the euro area vulnerable to the risks of stagnation. The weak medium-term prospect and limited policy space leave the euro area vulnerable to shocks that could lead to a prolonged period of low growth and inflation. Model simulations suggest that a modest shock to investor confidence could push up risk premia and real interest rates, as policy space is constrained at the zero lower bound and fiscal policy space to provide stimulus is limited. Moreover, the lingering crisis legacies of high debt and unemployment could amplify the original shocks, creating a bad feedback loop and keeping the economy stuck in equilibrium of stagnation.

Who were key figures in the making of European monetary union? Which ideas did they contribute to ensuring that monetary union would be sustainable? How prescient were they in identifying the necessary and sufficient foundations of a sustainable monetary union? This book provides the first systematic historical examination of key architects of European monetary union in the period before its launch in 1999. Using original archival and interview research, it investigates the intellectual and career backgrounds of these architects, their networking skills, and their own doubts and reservations about the way in which monetary union was being constructed. In the light of the later Euro Area, Architects of the Euro deals critically with not just their contribution to the making of European monetary union but also their legacy. The book brings together a distinguished group of scholars working on the history of Economic and Monetary Union.

This book offers a critical perspective from which to observe evolution of the Euro Area and the European Union in these times of growing economic and political conflict.