This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.

This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy. The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability. To that end, better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health. Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic outlook is broadly positive. Exports and remittances--key growth drivers in 2010--are continuing to grow solidly, helping the recovery gain firm momentum. At the same time, uncertainties over the robustness of the global recovery constitute a downside risk to the growth outlook. Key challenges facing the region over the medium term are to create jobs and foster high and inclusive growth.

The economies of the Middle East and Central Asia proved resilient in 2022, despite a series of global shocks. However, this year—and potentially next—growth is expected to slow in the Middle East and North Africa as tight policies to fight inflation, reduce vulnerabilities, and rebuild buffers start to dent economic activity in many countries, and agreed oil production cuts curb growth in oil exporters. Inflation is projected to remain persistent. The outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia countries depends heavily on external factors, namely the impact of monetary tightening, and growth in their main trading partners, the pace of private transfers, and inflows of migrants from Russia. Uncertainty is high, and risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside amid financial stability concerns, particularly in advanced economies amid contagion fears. Policy trade-offs are even more complex, and policymakers will need to calibrate the policy mix carefully to reduce core inflation without triggering financial stress and excessive tightening and continue to provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups while preserving debt sustainability and financial stability. Tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region amid tight global financial conditions call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience.

Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.

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Annotation With analysis spanning the range of flows from short-term trade to long-term infrastructure finance,

This first book of its kind discusses in particular the role of investor protection as regards disclosure when issuers are offering securities to the public, with full descriptions of the securities markets and stock exchanges in seventeen Arab jurisdictions. In two interrelated parts it examines both the regional macroeconomic matrix and a detailed case study (that of Jordan) in order to analyse the development and characteristics of an Arab regulatory model. Among the important issues and topics arising in the course of the analysis are the following: relevance of international regulatory standards to Arab securities markets; mandatory versus voluntary securities disclosure; the fundamentals of the Islamic financial system, role of riba and gharar, nature and impact of Shari’a’s unquantifiable juridical risks on the modus operandi of Arab securities markets; macroeconomic adjustment policies and structural adjustment programmes in several Arab countries; recent economic and Arab capital markets impact in the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’; extent of different countries’ reliance on Shari’a as a constitutional source; constitutional challenges to the imposition of interest; the need for the positive law to compel securities disclosure under Shari’a; shareholders’ remedies when suing for fraud or negligent misstatements; liability for misleading or inaccurate disclosure (under the general law of the UK and a selected Arab jurisdiction); prospectus liability under the statutory regime of the UK and an Arab regulatory regime; bars to rescission of contract: Comparative UK and Shari'a aspects; and Arab, UK regulatory agencies' enforcement, prosecutorial, administrative and civil remedies. The author closely examines various instruments deployed for conveying securities disclosure and dissemination of information, and looks extensively at relevant rulings as enunciated by an Arab court of cassation. He then constructs a model of an effective securities disclosure regime in order to provide better investor protection for shareholders under Shari’a. 'Among the strengths of Dr Lu’ayy Minwer Al-Rimawi’s book is the fact that at all times he adopts a comparative approach, not only as between different Arab systems, but also with an appreciation of the legal position in the UK and the European Union and elsewhere’ [The Hon. Mr Justice Sir William Blair Q.C., High Court Judge in the UK and Chairman of the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Tribunal]. As the first in-depth discussion of the regulation of Arab capital markets in English, with an eye to international standards and the policy issues involved – and with attention focused on the central question of how the law can properly protect investors – this book will commend itself to all those with an interest in securities markets in the Arab world.

The 2011 Arab uprisings are integrated into the movement to create a regional economic community for a potential twenty-eight nations, with nearly 500 million citizens. A reinvented Marshall Plan, supported internationally, is forthcoming. This updated book provides strategic models to develop the organizations required. In the end, stability and a raised living standard will evolve. As you point out, there is an opportunity to define the future of the Middle East in terms of reconciliation and coexistence rather than confrontation and violence. There are no limits to what can be done if the region's energy and talents can be channeled into creating new opportunities and building a land as bountiful and peaceful as it is holy. —Bill Clinton, former President of the United States Praise for Jerry Rosenberg's Nation-Building: A Middle East Recovery Program: To Jerry M. Rosenberg- With much respect for his attempt to organize a great dream. I believe you have addressed yourself to the very foundations which will lie at the heart of the future of the region and I hope indeed that the day is not far off when the plan will be brought to realization. —Shimon Peres, former Prime Minster of Israel [Nation-Building provides] insights into the interplay of underlying variables, encompassing significant regional, global, religious, secular, socio-political, and historical factors, of the permeability of the Middle East. —el-Sayed el-Aswad, Ph.D., The University of Bahrain, Digest of Middle East Studies I hope, by drawing on the Marshall Plan, you are able to formulate a blueprint that can succeed in the Middle East. I further hope that you are able to use the Marshall Plan to illustrate to others how such plans have been successful in the past, and how, despite the daunting odds, such a plan could create economic growth, democracy, and peace in our region. I wish you much success in your important work. —Natan Sharansky, former Deputy Prime Minister of Israel