The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has highlighted the role of country risk premia as a link between countries’ fiscal and external balances, financial conditions and monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate how adoption of inflation targeting (IT) affects spreads. It is hypothesized that country risk premia for IT countries (especially among emerging market economies) may be lower than for other countries owing to greater policy predictability and more stable long-term inflation. The findings suggest that IT reduces the risk premium, both through adoption of the IT regime, and through the observed track record in stabilizing inflation.

This volume assesses the current state of play for Middle East and North African countries, in the light of wider work on inflation targeting, and provides lessons from the evolution of monetary policy in Europe.

Financial Risk Measurement is a challenging task, because both the types of risk and the techniques evolve very quickly. This book collects a number of novel contributions to the measurement of financial risk, which address either non-fully explored risks or risk takers, and does so in a wide variety of empirical contexts.

The year 2015 witnessed significant events in the area of finance, trade and investment, which brought Asia to the centre of the world stage. The Trans-Pacific Partnership reached its basic agreement among the 12 member countries in October; the Chinese Yuan was included into the Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies at the International Monetary Fund in November; the ASEAN Economic Community came into force; and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was established with the 57 founding members in December. Within and outside the region, there is an urgent need to understand the underlying economic structures that brought about these events, which have global implications. The Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore launched a series of conferences on ‘Evolving Finance, Trade and Investment in Asia’ with the aim of strengthening research capacity in Asia to influence regional policymaking. Looking forward, the conference will provide an annual platform for scholars to discuss the latest findings and to disseminate them to business leaders and policymakers. This book contains scholarship presented at the inaugural international conference in September 2015, and was originally published as a special issue of the International Economic Journal.

This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.

How Brazil's monetary and fiscal policies survived a series of severe economic shocks and the policy lessons for other countries. Inflation targeting -- when central bank policies set specific inflation rate objectives -- is widely used by both developed and developing countries around the world (although not by the United States or the European Central Bank). This collection of original essays looks at how Brazil's policy of inflation targeting, coupled with a floating exchange rate, survived a series of severe economic shocks and examines the policy lessons that can be drawn from Brazil's experience. After a successful start in early 1999, Brazil's policy regime had to manage mounting difficulties, including a sudden reversal of capital flows and its effects on the exchange rate and public debt, the contagion of Argentina's severe economic problems, a domestic energy crisis, and the political uncertainty of the 2002 presidential campaign. The contributors, prominent Brazilian and international economists, draw important lessons from Brazil's experience, including the necessity of accompanying monetary policy with fiscal improvement, the trade-offs involved in dollar-linked debt, the importance of fiscal institutions in an emerging market economy, and the importance of keeping inflation under control.

The international financial system has come under strain several times in recent years, and analysis has shown that most crises originated from the risks built into cross-border exposures.Assessment and monitoring of cross-border exposures and country risk are essential activities for international lending agencies such as government bodies, banks, multinational corporations and other investors. Inadequate risk management could have a destabilising effect on both lender and borrower and could result in a major international financial crisis.This completely revised edition of Thomas E Krayenbuehl's classic handbook clearly shows how the various players can quantify and manage the complex factors involved in order to minimise the risk and avoid potentially catastrophic consequences. It provides both a rigorous analysis of the current situation and a guide to meeting the challenges of the future.Just some of the things you'll discover...How to succeed in cross-border lending and investment through good assessment, monitoring and hedging of country riskHow the Tequila and Asian crises came about, and the lessons learnedThe likelihood of future crises and the potential causesThe latest problems to beset the international financial systemThe recent developments in cross-border financingWhy the problem of contagion occurs between seemingly unrelated marketsThe enormous need for global capital to bring about sustainable economic development in the developing world, and the role of the major players in fulfilling itThe numerous factors that constitute and influence a specific country riskThe responsibilities of all the parties involved, from the IMF and the World Bank to the industrialised and developing nations, the regulators and the rating agenciesHow this study helps you: This lucid and authoritative handbook will help you to:Understand the problems facing the international financial systemIdentify and assess new investment opportunitiesOptimise risk composition of cross-border lending or investmentMake sound decisions, minimise risk and achieve better outcomes - The definitive study of this important topic – its purpose, practice and implications

The global financial crisis has exposed the limitations of a conventional inflation targeting (IT) framework in insulating an economy from shocks, and demonstrated that its rigid application may aggravate the effect of shocks on output and inflation. Accordingly, we investigate possible refinements to the IT framework by incorporating financial stability considerations. We propose a small open economy DSGE model, calibrated for Korea during the period of 2003 - 07, with real and financial frictions. The findings indicate that incorporating financial stability considerations can help smooth business cycle fluctuations more effectively than a conventional IT framework.

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine whether including the exchange rate explicitly in the central bank's policy reaction function can improve macroeconomic performance. It is found that including an element of exchange rate smoothing in the policy reaction function is helpful both for financially robust advanced economies and for financially vulnerable emerging economies in handling risk premium shocks. As long as the weight placed on exchange rate smoothing is relatively small, the effects on inflation and output volatility in the event of demand and cost-push shocks are minimal. Financially vulnerable emerging economies are especially likely to benefit from some exhange rate smoothing because of the perverse impact of exchange rate movements on activity.

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy tool for influencing activity and inflation, and there is little agreement about the appropriate role of the exchange rate.The exchange rate is a more important monetary policy tool for emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting than it is for inflation-targeting advanced economies. Inflation-targeting emerging economies generally have less flexible exchange rate arrangements and intervene more frequently in the foreign exchange market than their advanced economy counterparts. The enhanced role of the exchange rate reflects these economies' greater vulnerability to exchange rate shocks and their less developed financial markets. However, their sharper focus on the exchange rate may cause some confusion about the commitment of their central banks to achieve the inflation target and may also complicate policy implementation. Global inflation pressures, greater exchange rate volatility, and the financial stresses from the global financial turmoil that began in mid-2007 are heightening these tensions.