Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.

Intelligent Decision Technologies (IDT) seeks an interchange of research on intelligent systems and intelligent technologies which enhance or improve decision making in industry, government and academia. The focus is interdisciplinary in nature, and includes research on all aspects of intelligent decision technologies, from fundamental development to the applied system. This volume represents leading research from the Second KES International Symposium on Intelligent Decision Technologies (KES IDT’10), hosted and organized by the Sellinger School of Business and Management, Loyola University Maryland, USA, in conjunction with KES International. The symposium was concerned with theory, design development, implementation, testing and evaluation of intelligent decision systems. Topics include decision making theory, intelligent agents, fuzzy logic, multi-agent systems, Bayesian networks, optimization, artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms, expert systems, decision support systems, geographic information systems, case-based reasoning, time series, knowledge management systems, Kansei communication, rough sets, spatial decision analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize decision making in many areas of management, healthcare, international business, finance, accounting, marketing, military applications, ecommerce, network management, crisis response, building design, information retrieval, and disaster recovery.

Using robust software, this book focuses on learning assistants for evidence-based reasoning that learn complex problem solving from humans.

Proving International Crimes elucidates how international criminal tribunals have tackled the immense and complex task of proving international crimes such as genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. The challenges posed by the scale and scope of these crimes and the distance in time and space between their commission and their prosecution are well-known. Nevertheless, investigators, lawyers, scholars, and policy makers often look to the law and practice of international criminal tribunals to establish what standards need to be met in the collection, preservation, presentation, and analysis of evidence to prove international crimes. In offering a comprehensive account of the law and practice of evidence before international criminal courts and tribunals to date, as well as recommendations for future practice, this book aims to inform domestic, regional, and international accountability processes for crimes going forward. This book demonstrates that, owing to the flexibility built in to the legal and procedural frameworks of international criminal courts and tribunals, the law of international criminal evidence is often unpredictable and uncertain. To this end, McDermott argues for the development of a coherent epistemic framework driven by two guiding principles: rectitude of decision and the highest standards of fairness.

The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

A global overview of evidentiary reasoning with contributions from leading authorities from different legal traditions and four continents.

This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

"This book presents the proceedings of the First International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures (BICA 2010), which is also the First Annual Meeting of the BICA Society. A cognitive architecture is a computational framework for the design of intelligent, even conscious, agents. It may draw inspiration from many sources, such as pure mathematics, physics or abstract theories of cognition. A biologically inspired cognitive architecture (BICA) is one which incorporates formal mechanisms from computational models of human and animal cognition, which currently provide the only physical examples with the robustness, flexibility, scalability and consciousness that artificial intelligence aspires to achieve. The BICA approach has several different goals: the broad aim of creating intelligent software systems without focusing on any one area of application; attempting to accurately simulate human behavior or gain an understanding of how the human mind works, either for purely scientific reasons or for applications in a variety of domains; understanding how the brain works at a neuronal and sub-neuronal level; or designing artificial systems which can perform the cognitive tasks important to practical applications in human society, and which at present only humans are capable of. The papers presented in this volume reflect the cross-disciplinarity and integrative nature of the BICA approach and will be of interest to anyone developing their own approach to cognitive architectures. Many insights can be found here for inspiration or to import into one's own architecture, directly or in modified form."--Publisher description.

Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; model illustrations and simulation descriptions; the role of models in support of collection and operations; case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

"Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader." —Charles E. Wilson, University of Detroit Mercy The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.