The Research Network on "Interacting stochastic systems of high complexity" set up by the German Research Foundation aimed at exploring and developing connections between research in infinite-dimensional stochastic analysis, statistical physics, spatial population models from mathematical biology, complex models of financial markets or of stochastic models interacting with other sciences. This book presents a structured collection of papers on the core topics, written at the close of the 6-year programme by the research groups who took part in it. The structure chosen highlights the interweaving of certain themes and certain interconnections discovered through the joint work. This yields a reference work on results and methods that will be useful to all who work between applied probability and the physical, economic, and life sciences.

Complex stochastic systems comprises a vast area of research, from modelling specific applications to model fitting, estimation procedures, and computing issues. The exponential growth in computing power over the last two decades has revolutionized statistical analysis and led to rapid developments and great progress in this emerging field. In Complex Stochastic Systems, leading researchers address various statistical aspects of the field, illustrated by some very concrete applications. A Primer on Markov Chain Monte Carlo by Peter J. Green provides a wide-ranging mixture of the mathematical and statistical ideas, enriched with concrete examples and more than 100 references. Causal Inference from Graphical Models by Steffen L. Lauritzen explores causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems, with focus on the effect of interventions in a given system. State Space and Hidden Markov Models by Hans R. Künschshows the variety of applications of this concept to time series in engineering, biology, finance, and geophysics. Monte Carlo Methods on Genetic Structures by Elizabeth A. Thompson investigates special complex systems and gives a concise introduction to the relevant biological methodology. Renormalization of Interacting Diffusions by Frank den Hollander presents recent results on the large space-time behavior of infinite systems of interacting diffusions. Stein's Method for Epidemic Processes by Gesine Reinert investigates the mean field behavior of a general stochastic epidemic with explicit bounds. Individually, these articles provide authoritative, tutorial-style exposition and recent results from various subjects related to complex stochastic systems. Collectively, they link these separate areas of study to form the first comprehensive overview of this rapidly developing field.

This volume provides an overview of two of the most important examples of interacting particle systems, the contact process, and the voter model, as well as their many variants introduced in the past 50 years. These stochastic processes are organized by domains of application (epidemiology, population dynamics, ecology, genetics, sociology, econophysics, game theory) along with a flavor of the mathematical techniques developed for their analysis.

We present an improved and enlarged version of our book Nonlinear - namics of Chaotic and Stochastic Systems published by Springer in 2002. Basically, the new edition of the book corresponds to its ?rst version. While preparingthiseditionwemadesomeclari?cationsinseveralsectionsandalso corrected the misprints noticed in some formulas. Besides, three new sections have been added to Chapter 2. They are “Statistical Properties of Dynamical Chaos,” “E?ects of Synchronization in Extended Self-Sustained Oscillatory Systems,” and “Synchronization in Living Systems.” The sections indicated re?ect the most interesting results obtained by the authors after publication of the ?rst edition. We hope that the new edition of the book will be of great interest for a widesectionofreaderswhoarealreadyspecialistsorthosewhoarebeginning research in the ?elds of nonlinear oscillation and wave theory, dynamical chaos, synchronization, and stochastic process theory. Saratov, Berlin, and St. Louis V.S. Anishchenko November 2006 A.B. Neiman T.E. Vadiavasova V.V. Astakhov L. Schimansky-Geier Preface to the First Edition Thisbookisdevotedtotheclassicalbackgroundandtocontemporaryresults on nonlinear dynamics of deterministic and stochastic systems. Considerable attentionisgiventothee?ectsofnoiseonvariousregimesofdynamicsystems with noise-induced order. On the one hand, there exists a rich literature of excellent books on n- linear dynamics and chaos; on the other hand, there are many marvelous monographs and textbooks on the statistical physics of far-from-equilibrium andstochasticprocesses.Thisbookisanattempttocombinetheapproachof nonlinear dynamics based on the deterministic evolution equations with the approach of statistical physics based on stochastic or kinetic equations. One of our main aims is to show the important role of noise in the organization and properties of dynamic regimes of nonlinear dissipative systems.

This book helps students, researchers, and practicing engineers to understand the theoretical framework of control and system theory for discrete-time stochastic systems so that they can then apply its principles to their own stochastic control systems and to the solution of control, filtering, and realization problems for such systems. Applications of the theory in the book include the control of ships, shock absorbers, traffic and communications networks, and power systems with fluctuating power flows. The focus of the book is a stochastic control system defined for a spectrum of probability distributions including Bernoulli, finite, Poisson, beta, gamma, and Gaussian distributions. The concepts of observability and controllability of a stochastic control system are defined and characterized. Each output process considered is, with respect to conditions, represented by a stochastic system called a stochastic realization. The existence of a control law is related to stochastic controllability while the existence of a filter system is related to stochastic observability. Stochastic control with partial observations is based on the existence of a stochastic realization of the filtration of the observed process.​

From ancient soothsayers and astrologists to today’s pollsters and economists, probability theory has long been used to predict the future on the basis of past and present knowledge. Mathematical Models of Information and Stochastic Systems shows that the amount of knowledge about a system plays an important role in the mathematical models used to foretell the future of the system. It explains how this known quantity of information is used to derive a system’s probabilistic properties. After an introduction, the book presents several basic principles that are employed in the remainder of the text to develop useful examples of probability theory. It examines both discrete and continuous distribution functions and random variables, followed by a chapter on the average values, correlations, and covariances of functions of variables as well as the probabilistic mathematical model of quantum mechanics. The author then explores the concepts of randomness and entropy and derives various discrete probabilities and continuous probability density functions from what is known about a particular stochastic system. The final chapters discuss information of discrete and continuous systems, time-dependent stochastic processes, data analysis, and chaotic systems and fractals. By building a range of probability distributions based on prior knowledge of the problem, this classroom-tested text illustrates how to predict the behavior of diverse systems. A solutions manual is available for qualifying instructors.

The nonequilibrium behavior of nanoscopic and biological systems, which are typically strongly fluctuating, is a major focus of current research. Lately, much progress has been made in understanding such systems from a thermodynamic perspective. However, new theoretical challenges emerge when the fluctuating system is additionally subject to time delay, e.g. due to the presence of feedback loops. This thesis advances this young and vibrant research field in several directions. The first main contribution concerns the probabilistic description of time-delayed systems; e.g. by introducing a versatile approximation scheme for nonlinear delay systems. Second, it reveals that delay can induce intriguing thermodynamic properties such as anomalous (reversed) heat flow. More generally, the thesis shows how to treat the thermodynamics of non-Markovian systems by introducing auxiliary variables. It turns out that delayed feedback is inextricably linked to nonreciprocal coupling, information flow, and to net energy input on the fluctuating level.

This book presents the understanding of how the different forms of regulatory mechanisms, like birth and death, competition, consumption and the like, result in changes in the stability and dynamics of ecological systems. It deals with a profound and unique insight into the mathematical richness of basic ecological models. Organised into eight chapters, the book discusses the models of mathematical ecology, the dynamical models of single-species system in a polluted environment, the dynamical behaviour of different nonautonomous two species systems in a polluted environment, the influence of environmental noise in Gompertzian and logistic growth models, stability behaviour in randomly fluctuating versus deterministic environments of two interacting species, stochastic analysis of a demographic model of urbanization and stability behaviour of a social group by means of loop analysis, thermodynamic criteria of stability and stochastic criteria of stability. The book will be useful to the researchers and graduate students who wish to pursue research in mathematical ecology.

These proceedings focus on future prospects as well as on the present status in some important areas of applied probability and mathematical biology. Some papers have educational intentions regarding the mathematical modelling of special biological situations. The workshop was the third one in Heidelberg dealing with stochastic modelling in biology, e.g., cell biology, embryology, oncology, epidemiology and genetics.