This book outlines Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail, from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.

This book outlines Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail, from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.

Bayesian statistical analyses have become increasingly common over the last two decades. The rapid increase in computing power that facilitated their implementation coincided with major changes in the research interests of, and data availability for, social scientists. Specifically, the last two decades have seen an increase in the availability of panel data sets, other hierarchically structured data sets including spatially organized data, along with interests in life course processes and the influence of context on individual behavior and outcomes. The Bayesian approach to statistics is well-suited for these types of data and research questions. Applied Bayesian Statistics is an introduction to these methods that is geared toward social scientists. Author Scott M. Lynch makes the material accessible by emphasizing application more than theory, explaining the math in a step-by-step fashion, and demonstrating the Bayesian approach in analyses of U.S. political trends drawing on data from the General Social Survey.

The second edition of this practical book equips social science researchers to apply the latest Bayesian methodologies to their data analysis problems. It includes new chapters on model uncertainty, Bayesian variable selection and sparsity, and Bayesian workflow for statistical modeling. Clearly explaining frequentist and epistemic probability and prior distributions, the second edition emphasizes use of the open-source RStan software package. The text covers Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Bayesian linear regression and generalized linear models, model evaluation and comparison, multilevel modeling, models for continuous and categorical latent variables, missing data, and more. Concepts are fully illustrated with worked-through examples from large-scale educational and social science databases, such as the Program for International Student Assessment and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. Annotated RStan code appears in screened boxes; the companion website (www.guilford.com/kaplan-materials) provides data sets and code for the book's examples. New to This Edition *Utilizes the R interface to Stan--faster and more stable than previously available Bayesian software--for most of the applications discussed. *Coverage of Hamiltonian MC; Cromwell’s rule; Jeffreys' prior; the LKJ prior for correlation matrices; model evaluation and model comparison, with a critique of the Bayesian information criterion; variational Bayes as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling; and other new topics. *Chapters on Bayesian variable selection and sparsity, model uncertainty and model averaging, and Bayesian workflow for statistical modeling.

Handbook of Aging and the Social Sciences, Eighth Edition, presents the extraordinary growth of research on aging individuals, populations, and the dynamic culmination of the life course, providing a comprehensive synthesis and review of the latest research findings in the social sciences of aging. As the complexities of population dynamics, cohort succession, and policy changes modify the world and its inhabitants in ways that must be vigilantly monitored so that aging research remains relevant and accurate, this completely revised edition not only includes the foundational, classic themes of aging research, but also a rich array of emerging topics and perspectives that advance the field in exciting ways. New topics include families, immigration, social factors, and cognition, caregiving, neighborhoods, and built environments, natural disasters, religion and health, and sexual behavior, amongst others. - Covers the key areas in sociological gerontology research in one volume, with an 80% update of the material - Headed up by returning editor Linda K. George, and new editor Kenneth Ferraro, highly respected voices and researchers within the sociology of aging discipline - Assists basic researchers in keeping abreast of research and clinical findings - Includes theory and methods, aging and social structure, social factors and social institutions, and aging and society - Serves as a useful resource—an inspiration to those searching for ways to contribute to the aging enterprise, and a tribute to the rich bodies of scholarship that comprise aging research in the social sciences

This book critically reflects on current statistical methods used in Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) and introduces a number of novel methods to the reader. Covering many techniques and approaches for exploratory data analysis including effect and power calculations, experimental design, event history analysis, non-parametric testing and Bayesian inference; the research contained in this book discusses how to communicate statistical results fairly, as well as presenting a general set of recommendations for authors and reviewers to improve the quality of statistical analysis in HCI. Each chapter presents [R] code for running analyses on HCI examples and explains how the results can be interpreted. Modern Statistical Methods for HCI is aimed at researchers and graduate students who have some knowledge of “traditional” null hypothesis significance testing, but who wish to improve their practice by using techniques which have recently emerged from statistics and related fields. This book critically evaluates current practices within the field and supports a less rigid, procedural view of statistics in favour of fair statistical communication.

Age, Period and Cohort Effects: Statistical Analysis and the Identification Problem gives a number of perspectives from top methodologists and applied researchers on the best ways to attempt to answer Age–Period–Cohort related questions about society. Age–Period–Cohort (APC) analysis is a fundamental topic for any quantitative social scientist studying individuals over time. At the same time, it is also one of the most misunderstood and underestimated topics in quantitative methods. As such, this book is key reference material for researchers wanting to know how to deal with APC issues appropriately in their statistical modelling. It deals with the identification problem caused by the co-linearity of the three variables, considers why some currently used methods are problematic and suggests ideas for what applied researchers interested in APC analysis should do. Whilst the perspectives are varied, the book provides a unified view of the subject in a reader-friendly way that will be accessible to social scientists with a moderate level of quantitative understanding, across the social and health sciences.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all data sets and code are available on the book's related Web site. Requiring only a working knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS serves as an excellent book for courses on Bayesian statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of statistics, actuarial science, medicine, and the social sciences who use WinBUGS in their everyday work.

The most user-friendly and authoritative resource on missing data has been completely revised to make room for the latest developments that make handling missing data more effective. The second edition includes new methods based on factored regressions, newer model-based imputation strategies, and innovations in Bayesian analysis. State-of-the-art technical literature on missing data is translated into accessible guidelines for applied researchers and graduate students. The second edition takes an even, three-pronged approach to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), Bayesian estimation as an alternative to MLE, and multiple imputation. Consistently organized chapters explain the rationale and procedural details for each technique and illustrate the analyses with engaging worked-through examples on such topics as young adult smoking, employee turnover, and chronic pain. The companion website (www.appliedmissingdata.com) includes datasets and analysis examples from the book, up-to-date software information, and other resources. New to This Edition *Expanded coverage of Bayesian estimation, including a new chapter on incomplete categorical variables. *New chapters on factored regressions, model-based imputation strategies, multilevel missing data-handling methods, missing not at random analyses, and other timely topics. *Presents cutting-edge methods developed since the 2010 first edition; includes dozens of new data analysis examples. *Most of the book is entirely new.