Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Choose statistically significant stock selection models using SAS® Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS®: Financial Modeling Techniques for Optimization is an introduction to using SAS to choose statistically significant stock selection models, create mean-variance efficient portfolios, and aggressively invest to maximize the geometric mean. Based on the pioneering portfolio selection techniques of Harry Markowitz and others, this book shows that maximizing the geometric mean maximizes the utility of final wealth. The authors draw on decades of experience as teachers and practitioners of financial modeling to bridge the gap between theory and application. Using real-world data, the book illustrates the concept of risk-return analysis and explains why intelligent investors prefer stocks over bonds. The authors first explain how to build expected return models based on expected earnings data, valuation ratios, and past stock price performance using PROC ROBUSTREG. They then show how to construct and manage portfolios by combining the expected return and risk models. Finally, readers learn how to perform hypothesis testing using Bayesian methods to add confidence when data mining from large financial databases.

This book introduces the readers to the rapidly growing literature and latest results on financial, fundamental and seasonal anomalies, stock selection modeling and portfolio management. Fifty years ago, finance professors taught the Efficient Markets Hypothesis which states that the average investor could not outperform the stock market based on technical, seasonal and fundamental data. Many, if not most faculty and investors, no longer share that opinion. In this book, the authors report original empirical evidence that applied investment research can produce statistically significant stock selection and excess portfolio returns in the US, and larger excess returns in international and emerging markets.

This book is an introduction-level text that reviews, discusses, and integrates both theoretical and practical corporate analysis and planning. The field can be divided into five parts: (1) Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis; (2) Alternative Finance Theories and Cost of Capital; (3) Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions; (4) Corporate Policies and their Interrelationships; (5) Financial Planning and Forecasting.The theories used and discussed in this book can be grouped into the following classical theoretical areas of corporate finance: (1) Pre-M&M Theory, (2) M&M Theory, (3) CAPM, and (4) Option Pricing Theory (OPT). The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Real world examples are used to enrich the learning experience; and alternative planning and forecasting models are used to show how the interdisciplinary approach can be used to make meaningful financial-management decisions.In this third edition, we have extensively updated and expanded the topics of financial analysis, planning and forecasting. New chapters were added, and some chapters combined to present a holistic view of the subject and much of the data revised and updated.

Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

Sustaining a competitive edge in today’s business world requires innovative approaches to product, service, and management systems design and performance. Advances in computing technologies have presented managers with additional challenges as well as further opportunities to enhance their business models. Advances in Data Communications and Networking for Digital Business Transformation is a critical scholarly resource that examines transformative technologies from the perspective of data communication and networking and research challenges faced by the industry and research and development laboratories. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as routing protocols, network visualization, and corporate social responsibility, this book is geared towards executives, managers, academicians, researchers, and students.

Foundations of Financial Management - An Introduction and Overview, Key Issues in Modern Financial Management, Financial Core Concepts and The Financial Markets This chapter enables you to answer the following questions: • What are the major areas in finance? • Why one need to understand finance in everyday life? • What is the capital budgeting decision? • What do you call the specific mixture of long-term debt and equity that a firm chooses to use? • Into what category of financial management does cash management fall? • What is the primary goal of financial management? • What are the shortcomings of the goal of profit maximization? • Explain agency relationship? What are agency problems and how do they arise? What are agency costs? • What incentives do managers in large corporations have to maximize share value? • What do you understand by a dealer market? How do dealer and auction markets differ? • What does OTC stand for? What is the large OTC market for stocks called? Time Value of Money – Meaning, Importance, Techniques for Valuation of Money, Rates of Interest and Number of Periods Determinations, Sinking Fund, Annuities and Its Types This chapter enables you to answer the following questions: ➢ Why money has a time value? ➢ How to translate lump sum monetary amount into time lines? ➢ What is the relationship between future and present values? ➢ What is discounting and compounding rates of interest? ➢ How to value a series of cash flows, whether even or uneven? ➢ How to calculate future value, present value, unknown period or interest rate given the other variables? ➢ How to identify FV and PV of annuities? ➢ What is the difference between a regular annuity and annuity due? ➢ What is deferred annuity? ➢ What is the difference between annual percentage rate (APR) and effective annual rate (EAR)? ➢ What is nominal rate, periodic rate and effective rate? ➢ How to properly choose between securities with different compounding periods?

Foundations of Financial Management - An Introduction and Overview, Key Issues in Modern Financial Management, Financial Core Concepts and The Financial Markets This book enables you to answer the following questions: · What are the major areas in finance? · Why one need to understand finance in everyday life? · What is the capital budgeting decision? · What do you call the specific mixture of long-term debt and equity that a firm chooses to use? · Into what category of financial management does cash management fall? · What is the primary goal of financial management? · What are the shortcomings of the goal of profit maximization? · Explain agency relationship? What are agency problems and how do they arise? What are agency costs? · What incentives do managers in large corporations have to maximize share value? · What do you understand by a dealer market? How do dealer and auction markets differ? · What does OTC stand for? What is the large OTC market for stocks called?