This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased income generating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigate trade-offs across development outcomes associated with specific value chains. The RIAPA analysis here suggests that joint promotion of the pulses and oilseeds, fruits and nuts, and cattle and dairy value chains will be most effective at impacting the full spectrum of development outcomes tracked in the model, including poverty, growth, jobs, and diets. However, the final value chain selection may change depending on the importance policymakers attach to the respective development outcomes.

Kenya experienced significant economic development in the 2009 to 2019 period. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an annual average of 5 percent (KNBS 2022). This exceeded population growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates; more importantly, for the first time in at least three decades, the country experienced a decline in the absolute number of poor people (World Bank 2022). While the global COVID-19 pandemic caused negative economic growth in 2020, the economy recovered quickly in 2021. Kenya was also largely spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Kenya’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0 percent in 2023 and 5.3 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for about one-quarter of GDP and nearly half of Kenya’s employment. It has thus played an important role in economic development. The sector has grown alongside the rest of the economy despite many challenges including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), declines in farm size (Jayne et al. 2016), and limited access to farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Kenya’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

The new Kenyan government faces a complex domestic and global environment, and it is widely expected to address key food and agricultural challenges with a new set of policies and programs. This policy brief presents key recommendations from a forthcoming book, Food Systems Transformation in Kenya: Lessons from the Past and Policy Options for the Future, which provides research-based “food for thought and action” to support the Kenyan government’s efforts to improve food security.

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture. The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

This book explores our current societal struggles to transition towards more sustainable agrifood systems.

Food systems are intimately linked to our lives – through the food we eat, our nutrition and health, our livelihoods, jobs, and the environment and natural resources of the planet. The main challenge for food systems is to produce nutritious food for all while preserving our biodiversity and environment and ensuring equitable distribution of wealth. This Food Systems Profile provides a summary of the main food system issues in Kenya and highlights potential solutions for their sustainable and inclusive transformation. It is the result of a systemic analysis and stakeholders' consultation that was part of a global assessment of food systems in over 50 countries, following a joint initiative by the European Union, FAO, and CIRAD which aims at catalysing the sustainable and inclusive transformation of food systems.

The present edition of Nature & Faune journal emphasizes the role of natural renewable resources within the framework of Africa’s agricultural transformation. Central to the transformation agenda is achieving greater prosperity which can improve peoples' lives and livelihoods. These improvements of lives and livelihoods cover their economic well-being; their environment; socio‐cultural and political sphere of influence. The conditions for modernizing Africa’s agriculture entail transforming not only production processes but also the products. This issue of the Journal highlights the unique features of Africa’s agriculture, including (i) the urgent need for improving productivity; (ii) the importance of the agricultural sector in Africa’s economies in terms of employment; and (iii) the climate-resilient opportunities within agriculture to cope with climate change challenges. It draws attention to the fact that the agriculture sector offers possibilities for increased productivity while also adapting to and mitigating climate change thus safeguarding also future production.