Recoge: 1. Introduction. - 2. Stylised facts about labour productivity growth and its driving forces. - 3. Evaluation of the different approaches for making long-run productivity projections. - 4. Overview of the methodology adopted for the present projections. - 5. Main results of baseline projections. - 6. Sensitive tests on productivity and GDP per capita. - 7. Concluding remarks. - 8. Annexes.

This upper level textbook provides a coherent introduction to the economic implications of individual and population ageing. Placing economic considerations into a wider social sciences context, this is ideal reading not only for advanced undergraduate and masters students in health economics and economics of ageing, but policy makers, professionals and practitioners in gerontology, sociology, health-related sciences, and social care. This volume introduces topics in labour economics, including the economic implications of ageing workforces. It covers pension economics and pension systems with their macroeconomic and distributive effects, and the question of risk. Finally, it describes macroeconomic consequences of ageing populations on aggregate saving, inflation, international trade, and financial markets.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

What makes countries rich? What makes countries poor? Europe's Growth Champion: Insights from the Economic Rise of Poland seeks to answer these questions, and many more, through a study of one of the biggest, and least heard about, economic success stories. Over the last twenty-five years Poland has transitioned from a perennially backward, poor, and peripheral country to unexpectedly join the ranks of the world's high income countries. Europe's Growth Champion is about the lessons learned from Poland's remarkable experience, the conditions that keep countries poor, and the challenges that countries need to face in order to grow. It defines a new growth model that Poland and its Eastern European peers need to adopt to grow and catch up with their Western counterparts. Poland's economic rise emphasizes the importance of the fundamental sources of growth- institutions, culture, ideas, and leaders- in economic development. It demonstrates that a shift from an extractive society, where the few rule for the benefit of the few, to an inclusive society, where many rule for the benefit of many, can be the key to economic success. *IEurope's Growth Champion asserts that a newly emerged inclusive society will support further convergence of Poland and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe with the West, and help to sustain the region's Golden Age. It also acknowledges the future challenges that Poland faces, and that moving to the core of the European economy will require further reforms and changes in Poland's developmental character.

This paper presents the results of long run labour productivity and GDP growth rate projections (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States and provides a detailed overview of the forecast methodology used. These projections were undertaken in order to provide an internationally comparable macroeconomic framework against which to assess the potential economic and fiscal effects of ageing populations. This assessment was carried out as part of the work undertaken by the EU's Economic Policy Committee, in its Ageing Working Group, to project the public expenditure implications of ageing on pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment insurance and education. The projections presented in this paper, using a common production function methodology for all 25 countries, show the GDP growth rate effects of an assumptions-driven extrapolation of recent trends in employment and labour productivity. In overall terms, the EU25 baseline projection suggests a significant slowdown in potential growth rates in the Union as a whole, with the EU25 growth rate projected to fall from around 2½% at present to half that rate over the period 2041-2050. Finally, various sensitivity tests are carried out to check the GDP per capita impact of some additional factors. Some of the interesting conclusions that emerge from these sensitivity tests include:....the negative effect of a change in the age-structure of the population is fairly limited, although it is accepted that the labour productivity of an individual is likely to decline after the age of 55. A very strong fall in the productivity of older workers compared with that of prime-age workers would be required to significantly depress total labour productivity. Such an outcome, on the basis of current evidence, appears rather unlikely. ....changing the TFP growth rate targets (e.g. use of the 1990's average instead of the long-term 1970-2004 average) could strongly affect the projections.

Oliver Pamp analyzes the likelihood and extent of pension reforms from a political-economy perspective. It is shown that voters’ preferences for or against reforms are influenced by a societies’ demographic development, the generosity of its existing public pension scheme and its electoral system. The author extensively reviews existing formal models of pension systems, discusses their merits and limitations, and develops a three-period overlapping generations model. The model’s insights regarding individual reform preferences are then put into the context of different electoral systems, thus emphasizing the important role of electoral institutions in the aggregation of societal preferences. Finally, using cross-national survey data, logit and ordered-logit analyses tentatively confirm some of the model’s main implications.

This book has been written on the basis of the research done between 2008 and 2010 as part of the European Commission funded FREIGHTVISION project. The “FREIGHTVISION - Freight Transport 2050 Foresight” project was funded by the Directorate General MOVE to design a long term vision for European freight transport in 2050 and to identify actions and research to progress appropriate freight transport measures in Europe. The project was carried out as a foresight process encompassing four conferences in which the project team identified and developed with the aid of more than 100 experts an action plan for securing long term freight transport in Europe. The book provides insights into the freight transport visions and Backcasts identified for 2035 and 2050, issues which need to be addressed and measures which were assessed to be part of future paths to assure an economical, environmental, and social freight transport system.

The book “The Greek Economy and the Crisis. Challenges and Responses” targets all those who think about the present and future of this (culturally) long-lived small geographic region (Greece), to form a personal view of its social and economic problems. A society that repeats the same types of behaviour over the centuries does not do so due to random mistakes. It contains intrinsic forces that affect it. These should be understood, to allow us to delineate future developments. However, the manner in which the social and economic process is perceived must be comprehensive and multidisciplinary: Economics, politics, social psychology and organizational psychology are essential to this analysis. Thus, the book is useful to those seeking information for their professional, scientific and personal development, allowing them to shape their social attitude. It is also useful to those responsible for taking decisions at national, European or enterprise level, in relation to the social and economic problems of Greece.