Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Japan highlights that the rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population has become central to macroeconomic policies and outcomes. The consultation centered on the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s demographics. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to lift current and expected inflation, stabilize public debt, and raise potential growth. Underlying growth is expected to remain resilient but will be increasingly challenged by slowing external demand and intensifying demographic headwinds. Growth in domestic demand is being eroded by the weaker external environment. Frontloading of private consumption ahead of the October 2019 consumption tax rate increase appears to have been smaller than in 2014.

Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers a better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals than other financing options, including those of raising social security contributions, debt financing, and a uniform increase in health and long-term care copayments.

Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.

This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.

Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan’s modest productivity growth. Results show a substantial dispersion in firm-level productivity growth across sectors and even across firms within the same sector. SMEs, on average, exhibit lower productivity growth than non-SMEs in Japan, with smaller and older SMEs showing particularly low productivity growth. Estimates suggest that boosting productivity growth in all of the worst-performing SMEs could improve overall productivity growth by up to 1.8 percentage points. The SME credit guarantee system, SME financing constraints, demographic factors, and lack of intangible capital investment are discussed as contributors to the slow productivity growth of Japan’s small and old SMEs.

The quantification of how aspects of a job are valued by employees sheds light on the potential for labor market reform in Japan. Using a nationwide sample of 1,046 working-age adults, we conduct a choice experiment that examines individuals’ willingness to trade wages against job characteristics such as the extent of overtime, job security, the possibility of work transfer and relocation. Our results suggest that: i) workers have high WTP (willingness to pay) to avoid extreme overtime and work transfer, ii) women have higher WTP than men, and iii) higher WTP for women are driven in part by feelings of guilt.

The six-volume set LNCS 12742, 12743, 12744, 12745, 12746, and 12747 constitutes the proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2021, held in Krakow, Poland, in June 2021.* The total of 260 full papers and 57 short papers presented in this book set were carefully reviewed and selected from 635 submissions. 48 full and 14 short papers were accepted to the main track from 156 submissions; 212 full and 43 short papers were accepted to the workshops/ thematic tracks from 479 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections named: Part I: ICCS Main Track Part II: Advances in High-Performance Computational Earth Sciences: Applications and Frameworks; Applications of Computational Methods in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence and High-Performance Computing for Advanced Simulations; Biomedical and Bioinformatics Challenges for Computer Science Part III: Classifier Learning from Difficult Data; Computational Analysis of Complex Social Systems; Computational Collective Intelligence; Computational Health Part IV: Computational Methods for Emerging Problems in (dis-)Information Analysis; Computational Methods in Smart Agriculture; Computational Optimization, Modelling and Simulation; Computational Science in IoT and Smart Systems Part V: Computer Graphics, Image Processing and Artificial Intelligence; Data-Driven Computational Sciences; Machine Learning and Data Assimilation for Dynamical Systems; MeshFree Methods and Radial Basis Functions in Computational Sciences; Multiscale Modelling and Simulation Part VI: Quantum Computing Workshop; Simulations of Flow and Transport: Modeling, Algorithms and Computation; Smart Systems: Bringing Together Computer Vision, Sensor Networks and Machine Learning; Software Engineering for Computational Science; Solving Problems with Uncertainty; Teaching Computational Science; Uncertainty Quantification for Computational Models *The conference was held virtually. Chapter “Intelligent Planning of Logistic Networks to Counteract Uncertainty Propagation” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com. The six-volume set LNCS 12742, 12743, 12744, 12745, 12746, and 12747 constitutes the proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2021, held in Krakow, Poland, in June 2021.* The total of 260 full papers and 57 short papers presented in this book set were carefully reviewed and selected from 635 submissions. 48 full and 14 short papers were accepted to the main track from 156 submissions; 212 full and 43 short papers were accepted to the workshops/ thematic tracks from 479 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections named: Part I: ICCS Main Track Part II: Advances in High-Performance Computational Earth Sciences: Applications and Frameworks; Applications of Computational Methods in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning; Artificial Intelligence and High-Performance Computing for Advanced Simulations; Biomedical and Bioinformatics Challenges for Computer Science Part III: Classifier Learning from Difficult Data; Computational Analysis of Complex Social Systems; Computational Collective Intelligence; Computational Health Part IV: Computational Methods for Emerging Problems in (dis-)Information Analysis; Computational Methods in Smart Agriculture; Computational Optimization, Modelling and Simulation; Computational Science in IoT and Smart Systems Part V: Computer Graphics, Image Processing and Artificial Intelligence; Data-Driven Computational Sciences; Machine Learning and Data Assimilation for Dynamical Systems; MeshFree Methods and Radial Basis Functions in Computational Sciences; Multiscale Modelling and Simulation Part VI: Quantum Computing Workshop; Simulations of Flow and Transport: Modeling, Algorithms and Computation; Smart Systems: Bringing Together Computer Vision, Sensor Networks and Machine Learning; Software Engineering for Computational Science; Solving Problems with Uncertainty; Teaching Computational Science; Uncertainty Quantification for Computational Models *The conference was held virtually. Chapter “Intelligent Planning of Logistic Networks to Counteract Uncertainty Propagation” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com. Chapter: Modelling and Forecasting Based on Recurrent Pseudoinverse Matrices” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

This paper uses case studies to explore the nature and extent of past IMF engagement on social spending issues and to draw lessons for future engagement.

This second edition of Helaine Selin’s successful Parenting Across Cultures comes at a time where interest in parenting has increased across the world as a result of the COVID pandemic, as parents and children were put into different and often challenging conditions. This new edition, like the first, contains chapters from countries in Asia, Africa, and South America as well as from indigenous cultures of several Western countries. The chapters were revised to include new research in the post-pandemic world. They show that there is a strong connection between culture and parenting: there are differences in affection and distance, harshness and repression, and acceptance and criticism. Some parents insist on obedience; others are concerned with individual development. This clearly differs from parent to parent, but there is just as clearly a connection to culture, which these chapters explore. In addition to the chapters on individual countries, the second edition includes a section on the pandemic, as well as new research on parenting and technology, gender, religion, adoption, step parenting, divorce, single parents, racism, gay parents, disabilities, autism, eating habits, transgender, attachment, migration, bullying, and refugee resettlement.