In economics, many quantities are related to each other. Such economic relations are often much more complex than relations in science and engineering, where some quantities are independence and the relation between others can be well approximated by linear functions. As a result of this complexity, when we apply traditional statistical techniques - developed for science and engineering - to process economic data, the inadequate treatment of dependence leads to misleading models and erroneous predictions. Some economists even blamed such inadequate treatment of dependence for the 2008 financial crisis. To make economic models more adequate, we need more accurate techniques for describing dependence. Such techniques are currently being developed. This book contains description of state-of-the-art techniques for modeling dependence and economic applications of these techniques. Most of these research developments are centered around the notion of a copula - a general way of describing dependence in probability theory and statistics. To be even more adequate, many papers go beyond traditional copula techniques and take into account, e.g., the dynamical (changing) character of the dependence in economics.

This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 4th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modeling and Decision Making, IUKM 2015, held in Nha Trang, Vietnam, in October 2015. The 40 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 58 submissions and are presented together with three keynote and invited talks. The papers provide a wealth of new ideas and report both theoretical and applied research on integrated uncertainty modeling and management

This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques – i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers – and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.

This book presents a unique collection of contributions on modern topics in statistics and econometrics, written by leading experts in the respective disciplines and their intersections. It addresses nonparametric statistics and econometrics, quantiles and expectiles, and advanced methods for complex data, including spatial and compositional data, as well as tools for empirical studies in economics and the social sciences. The book was written in honor of Christine Thomas-Agnan on the occasion of her 65th birthday. Given its scope, it will appeal to researchers and PhD students in statistics and econometrics alike who are interested in the latest developments in their field.

This book focuses on structural changes and economic modeling. It presents papers describing how to model structural changes, as well as those introducing improvements to the existing before-structural-changes models, making it easier to later on combine these models with techniques describing structural changes. The book also includes related theoretical developments and practical applications of the resulting techniques to economic problems. Most traditional mathematical models of economic processes describe how the corresponding quantities change with time. However, in addition to such relatively smooth numerical changes, economical phenomena often undergo more drastic structural change. Describing such structural changes is not easy, but it is vital if we want to have a more adequate description of economic phenomena – and thus, more accurate and more reliable predictions and a better understanding on how best to influence the economic situation.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

This book presents a collection of ten empirical studies on Iran’s sustainable agriculture and agribusiness, grouped into three domains: agricultural prices and commodity market analysis; risk management and climate change; and natural resources and environmental economics. The various studies elaborate on sustainable agriculture, climate change, pest management, natural resources, land-use, agricultural marketing, risk management and insurance in Iran’s agricultural sector. The book also introduces the key microeconomic principles that are applied to agriculture from a suitability perspective, and provides policy recommendation to decision makers and agricultural-product producers. As such it serves as a supplement to textbooks on applied economics, agricultural and environmental economics, and offers students and professionals in agricultural economics, resource economics, risk management, and food policy as well as general economists real-world examples of the principles under discussion. Further, it includes an extensive range of case studies from different regions of the country, which could be applied in agricultural policy making process, making it a useful resource for agricultural planners and decision makers in government agencies.

This book on counting statistics presents a novel copula-based approach to counting dependent random events. It combines clustering, combinatorics-based algorithms and dependence structure in order to tackle and simplify complex problems, without disregarding the hierarchy of or interconnections between the relevant variables. These problems typically arise in real-world applications and computations involving big data in finance, insurance and banking, where experts are confronted with counting variables in monitoring random events. In this new approach, combinatorial distributions of random events are the core element. In order to deal with the high-dimensional features of the problem, the combinatorial techniques are used together with a clustering approach, where groups of variables sharing common characteristics and similarities are identified and the dependence structure within groups is taken into account. The original problems can then be modeled using new classes of copulas, referred to here as clusterized copulas, which are essentially based on preliminary groupings of variables depending on suitable characteristics and hierarchical aspects. The book includes examples and real-world data applications, with a special focus on financial applications, where the new algorithms’ performance is compared to alternative approaches and further analyzed. Given its scope, the book will be of interest to master students, PhD students and researchers whose work involves or can benefit from the innovative methodologies put forward here. It will also stimulate the empirical use of new approaches among professionals and practitioners in finance, insurance and banking.