Global warming is unequivocal. The Paris Agreement requires that countries undertake a global stocktake beginning in 2023 at the 28th Conference of Parties to be held in Doha and every five years thereafter. Countries will demonstrate aggregate progression towards balancing greenhouse gases by sources and removals, adapting to the threats from climate change, the flow of climate finances, and contribution to the achievement of sustainable development goals. This paper designs an Enhanced Climate Mitigation Actions and Safeguard (ECMAS) Indicator Framework and applies it to 188 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It assesses the implications of the quality of the information provided to improve clarity, transparency, and understanding of the NDCs. Findings show inconsistencies in terms used to describe emission reduction (ER) targets, unmet mitigation ambitions, and poorly elaborated safeguards. The study concludes that the information in the NDCs may jeopardize the sustainability and inclusiveness of net-zero ER targets and Paris Agreement goals, and the ECMAS Indicator Framework can help countries design and pursue appropriate pathways. Our findings recommend the need for policy guidelines to harmonize terminologies in NDCs, promotion of tools for enhancing net-zero ER targets and strengthening of institutional arrangements for elaborating and ensuring safeguards against socio-ecological inequalities are promoted and respected.

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.

The Article 6 of the Paris Agreement lays the foundation for countries to use cooperative approaches in achieving and raising climate ambitions articulated in their respective nationally determined contributions. As the rulebook for Article 6 is expected to be adopted at COP25 in Madrid, it is pertinent to learn from the wealth of knowledge and experience of the existing mechanisms. The Joint Crediting Mechanism initiated by the Government of Japan in 2013 demonstrates how bilateral cooperative approaches could be designed and implemented for fostering mitigation actions to the benefi t of partnering countries. This publication is an eff ort to provide insights into the Joint Crediting Mechanism and the lighthouse it could provide for navigating ongoing negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and guiding future development of new market mechanisms.