Estonian living standards have doubled since 2000 and income convergence was steady prior to the pandemic, although per capita GDP and productivity remain below the OECD averages. The economy experienced a severe downturn due to disruptions in trade, weaker export demand, high inflation and tight monetary conditions. With improvements in external demand, growth should start to recover this year.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to higher energy prices and disruptions in trade and supply chains, weighing on economic growth. Economic convergence had already slowed down before the pandemic, calling for accelerating structural reforms. Rising spending pressures related to defence, internal security, health and old age poverty need to be addressed by raising spending efficiency and tax revenue, while the tax burden should be shifted from labour towards other income, property, and environmental taxes. Continuing to improve the capacity of the public sector, fostering investment and innovation and addressing skilled labour shortages are key for raising potential growth. Low credit supply is a main factor for weak investment and should be tackled by fostering competition and deepening capital markets. High informality, which hinders access to finance and distorts the level playing field, should be addressed by reducing labour taxes for low-wage earners, improving tax enforcement and continuing to fight corruption. Strengthening the power of the Competition Council to enforce competitive neutrality of state-owned enterprises and challenge regulation that restricts competition would help to foster business dynamism and innovation. Addressing skilled labour shortages will require facilitating skilled migration and investing more in human capital. SPECIAL FEATURE: RAISING INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT GROWTH

After a robust recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, Colombia's economic growth is returning to a low potential. Medium-term growth prospects depend on maintaining Colombia's strong macroeconomic framework and enacting reforms to create a business-friendly environment which can attract high levels of investment. Implementing fiscal consolidation and adhering to fiscal rules would prevent rising financing costs and safeguard debt sustainability. Reforms to raise tax revenues and improve spending efficiency are needed to create fiscal space for social and productive investment needs. Enhancing the investment climate requires reducing regulatory uncertainties and tackling corruption. Creating connected transport infrastructure, strengthening subnational government capacities and improving equalisation mechanisms in the fiscal transfer system would foster balanced development across the country. Addressing informality, gender gaps, and improving education quality would boost productivity and reduce social disparities. Investing in climate adaptation, renewable energy, and establishing stable regulatory frameworks are key for a climate-resilient economy and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. SPECIAL FEATURES: RAISING PRODUCTIVITY; REDUCING LABOUR INFORMALITY; REGIONAL CONVERGENCE

The United States economy has continued to expand at a solid pace and price pressures have eased somewhat. However, a sustained fiscal deficit has contributed to raising public debt as a share of GDP to its highest level since World War II, with a further substantial increase in prospect over coming decades as the population ages. To put the public finances on a more sustainable path, a multi-year fiscal adjustment should be enacted that achieves savings on pensions and healthcare and raises taxation, including on capital incomes. A more medium-term oriented and less complicated federal budgeting process would support this. At the same time, economic growth would benefit from productivity enhancing reforms that promote competition, including through maintaining international trade openness and reinforcing relevant skills in the workforce. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated, but further policy measures will be needed to achieve emission reduction targets. Policy options include a package of broad-based carbon pricing, taxes and sectoral policies. As the climate transition further progresses, additional measures will be needed to support displaced workers from fossil fuel industries and for climate adaptation. SPECIAL FEATURE: MANAGING FISCAL PRESSURES IN THE UNITED STATES

The Slovak economy has been relatively resilient to the energy crisis, but growth has slowed amid high inflation, weakening foreign demand and tightening financial conditions. The pandemic and the energy crisis have deteriorated public finances; steady fiscal consolidation is now needed to rebuild fiscal buffers and improve long-term fiscal sustainability in the face of rapid population ageing. Sustaining economic convergence and facilitating inclusive structural change requires improving skill provision at all stages of the learning cycle, fostering the domestic innovation capacity and improving the business environment.

Since its independence, Estonia has made tremendous progress towards greater economic prosperity. Estonia enjoys solid institutions, political stability, a strong and credible fiscal policy, as well as a robust financial sector. Estonia is also a frontrunner in digital governance and innovation. Stable and secure digital services are in fact one of the factors that have allowed Estonia to cushion better than others the sanitary and economic shock from the pandemic.

Growth has rebounded from the pandemic and the energy crisis, despite the 2023 earthquake and droughts. Morocco has benefitted from a stable macroeconomic regime and the deficit is narrowing following the pandemic and energy crisis with the government debt ratio is around 70% of GDP. Morocco has embarked on major reforms to encourage investment and to extend health insurance and social protection, but a stronger convergence path will be needed to achieve the vision in the New Development Model. Morocco’s labour productivity gap with the frontier remains large, although it has narrowed. FDI flows have been strong, but domestic private investment is low, and Moroccan firms face obstacles in performing better. Morocco’s young population is an asset, but the labour market suffers from high youth unemployment and low female employment. Emigration is significant. Widespread informality leads to low wages, poor-quality jobs and weak skills. Morocco has made an ambitious commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010 and to net zero by 2050, benefiting from the country’s potential for renewables-based generation. The country is vulnerable to climate change and already faces significant water stress. SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING INVESTMENT, FIRM PERFORMANCE AND PRODUCTIVITY; CREATING MORE AND BETTER JOBS

The Slovenian economy proved resilient following the energy crisis and devastating floods. Growth is projected to pick up gradually. The labour market remains tight, with widespread labour shortages leading to strong wage growth. Inflation has slowed but remains elevated in services. Fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild fiscal buffers and address emerging pressures from ageing-related cost, notably on pensions. Productivity growth would benefit from lifting remaining barriers in retail trade and restrictions on professional services. Female labour market participation is high, but the gender wage gap could be reduced further through adjustments in the tax and benefit system. Greater harmonisation of carbon prices, notably the removal of reduced tax rates for fossil fuels, is needed to reach emissions targets. High homeownership rates and a limited rental market, combined with insufficient residential construction, constrain housing options for many, especially the young and vulnerable. Enhancing housing supply can be achieved by streamlining spatial planning and permitting systems, reforming housing taxation, improving rental regulations, expanding access to mortgage finance, and promoting the development of social and affordable housing. SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING HOUSING MARKET CHALLENGES

After a strong recovery from the pandemic, the New Zealand economy has slowed, with higher interest rates weighing on housing construction, and inflation undermining purchasing power and consumption. Monetary policy has tightened significantly since late 2021 and proved efficient at reining in inflation. Better control of government spending is needed to keep fiscal consolidation on track in the short run and restore fiscal space for ageing-related expenditures and the green transition in the long run. New Zealand also faces an investment gap in addressing the needs of a rapidly growing population. Improving competition policies and streamlining the regulatory environment would help revive productivity growth and lift living standards in the long run. As highlighted by the recent OECD PISA study, achievement in school education has declined markedly. Inequality remains high and attendance has dropped. There is an urgent need to improve the curriculum, reform teacher education and strengthen support to teachers and schools to deliver better education outcomes. Adapting to climate change will require maintaining high insurance coverage for climate-related losses as well as changes to land-use planning and a comprehensive long-run energy strategy. The green transition needs a more rigorous cost-benefit assessment of emission reduction options. Special features: Competition, School Education, Climate Change

Italy has weathered recent crises well. A strong fiscal policy response, enhanced competitiveness and improved banking sector health have supported growth in recent years.