After a decade of strong export-led growth, decreasing unemployment and fiscal surpluses, the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis have revealed structural vulnerabilities and emphasised the need for accelerating the green and digital transitions. At the same time, rapid population ageing increases public spending pressures and exacerbates skilled labour shortages.

The Dutch economy swiftly returned to its pre-pandemic growth path, but rapidly rising inflation disrupted growth, magnifying existing challenges, such as the urgency of the transition to net zero, ageing-related fiscal pressures, and pervasive labour shortages. Significant investments in low-carbon infrastructure and technologies are needed to reduce fossil fuels dependence and exposure to global energy price fluctuations.

After a relatively strong performance during and after the pandemic, Sweden’s economy is contracting. High inflation has eroded real wages and tighter monetary policy has increased borrowing costs and led to a housing price correction.

The German economy entered a deep recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. A strong government response has reinforced health system capacity while protecting jobs and firms. The response to the crisis has included increases in investment to meet structural challenges from the energy transition and digital transformation.

Following a robust recovery, growth has slowed and the economy has been running at two speeds. Headline inflation has fallen, but underlying price pressures remain high.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to higher energy prices and disruptions in trade and supply chains, weighing on economic growth. Economic convergence had already slowed down before the pandemic, calling for accelerating structural reforms. Rising spending pressures related to defence, internal security, health and old age poverty need to be addressed by raising spending efficiency and tax revenue, while the tax burden should be shifted from labour towards other income, property, and environmental taxes. Continuing to improve the capacity of the public sector, fostering investment and innovation and addressing skilled labour shortages are key for raising potential growth. Low credit supply is a main factor for weak investment and should be tackled by fostering competition and deepening capital markets. High informality, which hinders access to finance and distorts the level playing field, should be addressed by reducing labour taxes for low-wage earners, improving tax enforcement and continuing to fight corruption. Strengthening the power of the Competition Council to enforce competitive neutrality of state-owned enterprises and challenge regulation that restricts competition would help to foster business dynamism and innovation. Addressing skilled labour shortages will require facilitating skilled migration and investing more in human capital. SPECIAL FEATURE: RAISING INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT GROWTH

The European recovery has been disrupted since the onset of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Co-ordinated and timely policy action helped avoid a severe downturn, but the near-term outlook is clouded by uncertainty and downside risks. Monetary and fiscal policy need to become sufficiently restrictive to reduce underlying inflationary pressures durably.

After a strong demand-based recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, economic activity declined amid high inflation. Growth has restarted in mid-2023 and inflation is receding, but fiscal and monetary policies need to work hand-in-hand to fight remaining inflationary pressures and recreate fiscal space to finance future spending needs.

Belgium’s economy has been relatively resilient to recent shocks and is expected to continue to grow steadily. Public finances have deteriorated though. In absence of fiscal consolidation, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise fast. Cutting ineffective public spending and reforming the budgetary framework to increase accountability across governments would help ensure public finances are on a sustainable path. Reforms to taxes and benefits could foster labour market activation and expand the tax base. Strengthening prevention and return-to-work programmes could contribute to tackling the high and increasing take up of disability benefits and better support employment of people with reduced work capacity. A coordinated strategy to reduce administrative costs and facilitate small firms’ access to training could increase business dynamism and productivity. Targeted support for female entrepreneurs could also unlock additional potential of the SME sector. Achieving the green transition requires setting up binding targets and improving coordination of climate policy across federal and regional governments. Easing procedures and improved financing schemes would help deploy renewable energy production. Transparency in future environmental standards with adequate and well-targeted financial incentives would sustain household investment in energy efficiency and electrification, particularly in the transportation and building renovation sectors. SPECIAL FEATURES: LABOUR MARKET, CLIMATE POLICY, SMALL- AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES

The Slovenian economy proved resilient following the energy crisis and devastating floods. Growth is projected to pick up gradually. The labour market remains tight, with widespread labour shortages leading to strong wage growth. Inflation has slowed but remains elevated in services. Fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild fiscal buffers and address emerging pressures from ageing-related cost, notably on pensions. Productivity growth would benefit from lifting remaining barriers in retail trade and restrictions on professional services. Female labour market participation is high, but the gender wage gap could be reduced further through adjustments in the tax and benefit system. Greater harmonisation of carbon prices, notably the removal of reduced tax rates for fossil fuels, is needed to reach emissions targets. High homeownership rates and a limited rental market, combined with insufficient residential construction, constrain housing options for many, especially the young and vulnerable. Enhancing housing supply can be achieved by streamlining spatial planning and permitting systems, reforming housing taxation, improving rental regulations, expanding access to mortgage finance, and promoting the development of social and affordable housing. SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING HOUSING MARKET CHALLENGES