Investigates various aspects of inflation - the recent history of inflation as well as potential sources of changes, the technical issues regarding the measurement of inflation, the indicators for future inflation, and the policy implications to achieve and maintain price stability.

In developing countries across Asia, food marketing parastatals have played an important role in agricultural policy, especially with regard to government efforts to stabilize food prices. Three broad market failures constitute the primary arguments for this form of government intervention: a lack of market integration stemming from inadequate infrastructure, the absence or inadequacy of risk-mitigating institutions and markets, and the need to protect the world's poorest communities from a volatile global market. Opponents of such public intervention schemes claim that the old rationales are no longer convincing, that the programs are not cost-effective and do not allocate resources optimally, and that private institutions are strong enough to take over many of the functions traditionally performed by parastatals. In From Parastatals to Private Trade, the editors—clearly from the latter camp—pose three general questions: Why must parastatal-centered policies in Asia change, when should policy changes occur, and how should such change happen: gradually or abruptly? Experts in agricultural policy use case studies from South Asia (Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan) and East Asia (Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) to answer these questions; and a concluding chapter synthesizes these countries' experiences with price stabilization programs. In light of the evidence—which indicates that parastatals played important roles in the past but have become overly expensive, and that reduced intervention can promote competition, help develop alternative institutions, and release funds for development and antipoverty programs without jeopardizing price stability—the editors highlight the challenges ahead and propose suggestions for reforming the existing paradigm for price-related policies. This volume provides valuable analyses for anyone concerned with balancing government intervention with market-friendly policies.

An attentive reader embarking on this book might wonder what "the" economic transition to which the title refers might be. In this century almost all countries have gone through periods of economic transition; but which period of economic history can claim to embody the notion or to represent the era of "the" transition? Definitely, no country or group of countries has experienced anything comparable to the economic upheavals that the fall of communism has brought about in a large portion of the world in just three years (1989 to 1991). No other "transition" to date has prompted more interest and more studies among economists, academics and policy-makers than has the transformation of centrally planned economies into market-based systems. It is this transformation that has come to define "the" transition. Early in the transformation process (in November 1990), with the support of the Centre for Co-operation with the Economies in Transition (CCET), I launched a conference to examine the challenges faced by these countries. About six years have gone by and a new economic landscape has emerged in that part of the world. The difficulties in transforming these economies have exceeded all expectations, and economic performances have varied considerably across countries. The time has come, therefore, to make a first evaluation of progress and problems, with a view to extracting useful policy lessons to guide policy-makers in successfully completing the transition in the near future.

Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month. One set of simulations tests alternative levels of distribution, finding that cutting distribution to 1 million tons would have minimal effects on the level of rice price stability. Another set of simulations tested different import tariff levels, including the baseline rate of 25%1. We find that lower tariffs result in both lower rice prices and less price instability, as world rice prices tend to be more stable than local prices. Simulating a buffer stock with different price bands shows that a narrow band can achieve high price stability but at a high fiscal cost. A 20 T/kg (USD 0.26/kg) price band generates similar price stabilization at a lower cost compared to current policy. However, it is difficult to set the “right” purchase and sale price, and many simulations result in exhausting reserves or reaching warehouse capacity. An adaptive buffer stock, in which the price is adjusted as the stock runs too low or too high, solves some of these problems. In general, the study finds that current procurement and distribution patterns do not match well with the regional and monthly patterns of surplus and deficit, possibly reflecting multiple and conflicting goals of the public food distribution system.

Of the stabilization schemes proposed to ease the liberalization of quota-driven, price-managed domestic markets for several "essential" commodities, the wide price band - based on a moving average of nominal border prices - is the least offensive. It provides benefits when price movements are extreme but preserves average international price signals.

The Kyoto Protocol requires that total emissions of greenhouse gases from Annex I countries be at least 5% below 1990 levels by the 2008-2012 period. Market-based approaches are proscribed by the Clinton Administration to meet the U.S. emission targets set by the treaty. This paper informs on the impacts that market-based mitigation policies could have on U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. More specifically, given that the treaty calls for mandatory emission reductions from Annex I countries only, U..S. manufacturing cost impacts are examined vis-a-vis those of both member & non-member countries. 50 charts & tables.

Developing countries can increase their national saving rate best by increasing government saving. The most effective way to increase national saving is through permanent tax hike, a cut in current public spending, and a macroeconomic framework in which inflation is low and incentives are predictable.