A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.

It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy

What is Macroeconomic Model A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Macroeconomic model Chapter 2: Macroeconomics Chapter 3: Rational expectations Chapter 4: New Keynesian economics Chapter 5: Monopoly profit Chapter 6: Fiscal policy Chapter 7: Phillips curve Chapter 8: Nominal rigidity Chapter 9: Lucas critique Chapter 10: Representative agent Chapter 11: Economic model Chapter 12: Computational economics Chapter 13: Demand for money Chapter 14: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium Chapter 15: Microfoundations Chapter 16: Neoclassical synthesis Chapter 17: History of macroeconomic thought Chapter 18: Jacques Drèze Chapter 19: Large-scale macroeconometric model Chapter 20: Heterogeneity in economics Chapter 21: Moral hazard (II) Answering the public top questions about macroeconomic model. (III) Real world examples for the usage of macroeconomic model in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Macroeconomic Model.

For Masters and PhD students in EconomicsIn this textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.The book also contains chapters on: exogeneity, in the context of estimation, policy analysis and forecasting; automatic (computer based) variable selection, and how it can aid in the specification of an empirical macroeconomic model; and finally, on a common framework for model-based economic forecasting.Supplementary materials and notes are available on the publisher's website.

First published in 1999, this book focuses on the macroeconomics issues which directly affect OPEC countries, aiming to set them in the context of the overall development effort. The most extant theoretical and empirical aspects in macroeconomics are integrated smoothly with institutional issues and policy questions. The analysis is illustrated through examples to show how the theories relate to the real world, especially to ongoing debates on developing economies as well as debates that encompass both developing and OPEC and developed countries.

Introducing Advanced Macroeconomics: Growth and Business Cycles, 2nd edition provides students with a thorough understanding of fundamental models in macroeconomics and introduces them to methods of formal macroeconomic analysis. Split into two sections, the first half of the book focuses on macroeconomics for the long run, introducing and developing basic models of growth and structural unemployment. The second half of the book deals with the economy in the short run, focusing on the explanation of business fluctuations. This new edition retains the popular pitch and level established in the 1st edition and continues to bridge the gap between intermediate macroeconomics texts and more advanced textbooks.

Having the high unemployment in Germany in mind, this book discusses how macroeconomic theory has evolved over the past forty years. It shows that in recent years a convergence has taken place, with modern models embodying a Keynesian transmission mechanism, monetarist policy implication, and modeling techniques inspired by new classical economics and real business cycle theory. It also probes in which direction models may be extended from here. Empirically, the book uses different econometric techniques to investigate the relevance and implications of different macroeconomic theories for German data. A key question this book investigates is the role of demand and supply side conditions for the increase in the German unemployment rate. On a policy level, the book relates the implications of the different theories to the ongoing debate on the appropriate roles of demand and supply side policies for curing the German unemployment problem.