The book's philosophical account of risk makes precise, justifies, and systematizes a variety of decision principles drawn from various disciplines. Weirich's approach to rational choice yields a theory that explains the rationality of choices complying with decision principles and advances strong normative standards for both attitudes to risks and acts affecting risks. His theory aims to guide decisions about risks in finance, in professional advice to clients, and in government regulation of risks the public bears.

Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

The third CMR Workshop prov. ided the opportunity for a group of experts from the Industry, academia and the regulatory authorities to meet and discuss ways and means by which risk benefit decisions are made during the various stages of drug development. It became apparent from the discussions that took place in October 1985, at the CIBA Foundation, that decisions are often made with limited data and inadequate methodology. The conclusions drawn from the day's deliberations were as follows: 1. Current methodology for assessing risk and particularly benefits must be improved; 2. Safety must be assessed in association with benefits as it is ultimately the benefit/ risk ratio which should decide the future of medicines; 3. Risks from medicines must always be viewed in relation to the risks from untreated diseases. It seemed to be the consensus of the group that such a meeting was both useful and informative and, hopefully, the publication of these proceedings will stimulate further discussion in this important area which may improve the decision-making process in drug development. The Editors wish to thank the participants for contributing to the Work shop, together with Dr. Cyndy Lumley for providing the initial transcript of the meeting and Mrs Sheila Wright for producing the final version and for carrying out all the additional work that is entailed in producing such a publication. Professor S. R. Walker A. W.

A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology The Failure of Risk Management provides effective solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods. Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government, and the general public. This book provides expert examination of essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment and evaluation methods, risk mitigation strategies, common errors in quantitative models, and more. Guidance on topics such as probability modelling and empirical inputs emphasizes the efficacy of appropriate risk methodology in practical applications. Recognized as a leader in the field of risk management, author Douglas W. Hubbard combines science-based analysis with real-world examples to present a detailed investigation of risk management practices. This revised and updated second edition includes updated data sets and checklists, expanded coverage of innovative statistical methods, and new cases of current risk management issues such as data breaches and natural disasters. Identify deficiencies in your current risk management strategy and take appropriate corrective measures Adopt a calibrated approach to risk analysis using up-to-date statistical tools Employ accurate quantitative risk analysis and modelling methods Keep pace with new developments in the rapidly expanding risk analysis industry Risk analysis is a vital component of government policy, public safety, banking and finance, and many other public and private institutions. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It is a valuable resource for business leaders, policy makers, managers, consultants, and practitioners across industries.

The social science approach to risk has matured over the past two decades, with distinct paradigms developing in disciplines such as anthropology, economics, geography, psychology, and sociology. Social Theories of Risk traces the intellectual origins and histories of twelve of the established and emerging paradigms from the perspective of their principal proponents. Each contributor examines the underlying assumptions of his or her paradigm, the foundational issue it seeks to address, and likely future directions of research. Taken together, these essays illustrate that the principal achievement of social sciences has been to broaden the debate about risk beyond the narrow, technical considerations of engineers and the physical and life sciences. The authors conclude that expert knowledge is not value-free, that public perceptions of and attitudes toward risks vary according to a wide range of social, psychological, and cultural variables, and that public opposition to particular risks cannot be assuaged by technical fixes. The essays reveal the circuitous paths that lead people to the study of risk, highlight how these paths have crossed and discuss some of the seminal influences on individuals and the field in general. Social Theories of Risk presents a broad, retrospective view of the state of the theory in the social sciences, written by many who have been on the cutting edge of risk research since its early days. The book includes both established and novel perspectives that address the theoretical foundations of the field and reflect what we know about risk as a psychological, social, and cultural phenomenon. The collection of papers not only informs us of the tributary ideas that spawned the social studies of risk, but also how the field has matured. The biographical flavor of the essays provides fascinating reading for established members of the field, and a valuable entree for newcomers. It is an ideal college text for courses in the history of science, environmental policy, and science, technology, and society, as well as the burgeoning array of more specialized courses in risk assessment and management.

Survey based valuation techniques like the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) rely particularly on the premise of respondents' rationality when answering willingness to pay (WTP) questions. Results of CVM surveys have repeatedly put this fundamental assumption into question. This study adopts a more realistic view of rationality accounting for respondents' limited capacities to process information. Based on cognitive psychology a technique to detect and analyze the bounds of rationality inherent in WTP statements is developed. Using an empirical example, the influence of bounded rationality on the validity of CVM results is analyzed. It is shown that individual differences in information processing play a major role. From these results recommendations for future survey design are developed.