Recent Food Prices Movements

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From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.

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Genre : Social Science
Author : Bryce Cooke
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release :
File : 44 Pages
ISBN-13 :


On The First Round Effects Of International Food Price Shocks

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We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures (complete and incomplete markets, and financial autarky). First-round effects depend crucially on the asset market structure and the different transmission mechanisms they trigger. Under complete markets, inter-temporal substitution prevails, making the inflationary impact of international food prices proportional to the food share in consumption, which in developing economies is typically large. Under financial autarky, the income channel is dominant, and first-round effects are instead proportional to the country's food balance—the difference between the country's food endowment and its consumption—which in developing countries is typically small. The latter result holds regardless of the degree of food tradability. Incomplete markets yield a combination of the two extremes. Our results cast some doubt on the view that international food price shocks are inherently inflationary in developing countries.

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Genre : Business & Economics
Author : Rafael Portillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Release : 2015-02-23
File : 35 Pages
ISBN-13 : 9781498304351


Retail Prices Of Food 1959 60

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Genre : Food prices
Author : United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Publisher :
Release : 1961
File : 64 Pages
ISBN-13 : UCSC:32106020334808


Bulletin Of The United States Bureau Of Labor Statistics

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Genre : Labor
Author :
Publisher :
Release : 1913
File : 348 Pages
ISBN-13 : STANFORD:36105006282037


Food And Other Consumer Price Increases

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Author : United States. Congress. Economic Joint Committee
Publisher :
Release : 1973
File : 106 Pages
ISBN-13 : STANFORD:36105005985721


Survey Of Current Business

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Genre : Commercial statistics
Author :
Publisher :
Release : 1947
File : 938 Pages
ISBN-13 : MSU:31293008431367


Demand And Price Situation

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Genre : Agriculture
Author : United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service
Publisher :
Release : 1965
File : 484 Pages
ISBN-13 : MSU:31293017620455


Prices Of Foods

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Genre : Food prices
Author : Murray Shipley Wildman
Publisher :
Release : 1919
File : 24 Pages
ISBN-13 : MINN:31951D035927109


Hearings

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Genre :
Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Post Office and Civil Service
Publisher :
Release : 1955
File : 1840 Pages
ISBN-13 : UOM:39015018398795


The Job Ahead For Defense Mobilization

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Genre :
Author : 1Washington Office of defense mobilization
Publisher :
Release : 1953
File : 60 Pages
ISBN-13 : MINN:30000011061235