Prepared by the Policy Wing of the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic performance and short-term prospects of the 44 countries covered by the Department. Topics examined in recent volumes include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements, macroeconomic implications of scaled-up aid, financial sector development, and fiscal decentralization. Detailed country data, grouped by oil-exporting and -importing countries and by subregion, are provided in an appendix and a statistical appendix, and a list of relevant publications by the African Department is included.

Provides a broad synopsis of recent economic developments in the Middle East and Central Asia region, highlighting common trends and policies among countries in the region, and reviewing prospects and policies for the coming year. Includes a statistical appendix.

Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 51⁄2 percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.

This paper proposes a general framework for monitoring macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries, defined as consisting of the three subsectors of crude oil and natural gas production, refinery, and electricity production. It aims to derive consistent information on physical and financial flows in the sector, including on interlinkages between the subsectors. It then applies this framework to Côte d'Ivoire. While being an important source of growth, the Ivoirien energy sector is found to have important shortcomings, in particular as regards transparency, efficiency and contribution to fiscal revenue. Among the key problems are partially intransparent production sharing arrangements for hydrocarbon production, price distortions for natural gas, administered prices for refined petroleum products, underfunding and lack of investment in the electricity sector, and inefficient government subsidies in the latter two subsectors.

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 63⁄4 percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

Financial sectors in low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are among the world's least developed. In fact, assets in most low-income African countries are smaller than those held by a single medium-sized bank in an industrial country. The absence of deep, efficient financial markets seriously challenges policy making, hinders poverty alleviation, and constrains growth. This book argues that building efficient and sound financial sectors in SSA countries will improve Africa's economic prospects. Based on a review of the key features of financial systems, it discusses the main obstacles and challenges that financial structures pose for SSA economies and recommends steps that could address major shortcomings in implementing the reform agenda.

Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South Africa and some other middle-income countries were caught in the turbulence of international financial markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external positions than in past downturns, most countries in the region have been able to partially absorb external shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing interest rates. Exchange rates have generally been allowed to adjust. With many families affected by the crisis, however, progress toward the Millennium Development Goals has receded. Looking ahead, fiscal policy must balance support for the recovery with enhancing future growth prospects, debt sustainability, and poverty reduction. Published biannually in May and October.

Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well be on the increase in 2008. In 2009, inflation should ease to 10 percent, helped by recent commodity price declines. There are significant risks to the outlook related to a potentially deeper and longer period of global financial turmoil and resulting slowdown in global activity, and substantial uncertainty concerning commodity prices.

In an incisive view of the relationship between Africa and the West, the author, who holds diplomas from the London School of Economics and the London School of Journalism, suggests that the aid machinery hurts Africa more than it assists and that Westerners (and successful Africans) perpetuate the negative image of Africa to assuage their consciences as they continue to rip off a rich continent while deploring the poverty they themselves help to keep in place. I seriously doubt that the Good Carpenter is happy with those vainly calling themselves Christians but acting like wolves set loose on a flock of new-born lambs, asserts the author. Her principle is that on which the United States of America was based: All men are created equal. Why, then, she argues, does the West preach democracy but behave very undemocratically when their interests are at stake? The Western citizenry have been schooled to think that their countries are wealthy because of the sweat of their brows or the brilliance of their minds, a belief fostered to support hegemonic delusions. The truth, the author maintains, is that they are rich because they have robbed and still rob their wealth from the rest of the world, creating poor countries precisely where the greatest natural wealth is found. American and European corporations, and now Chinese as well, whisk away Africa's resources to enrich their own economies and peoples. The author looks at contemporary political, humanitarian and economic trends, assessing the World Bank, W.T.O., G8 and the I.M.F. to be the long arms of the world oligarchies, primarily the U.S.A. She analyzes the negative picture people (of North and South as well) have of Africa, and shows that those who are making huge profits out of the continent do their best to perpetuate the negative image of Africa to assuage their consciences. She opines that the aid machinery hurts Africa more than it assists. On the other hand, the author also reprimands not only the predator politicians and elite of the continent but all Africans for their passive resignation to a fate they can change through affirmative action. She considers N.G.O.s a menace to Africa while serving as a job-creation blessing to the rich nations. Just as artificial, she argues, is the notion that Africa's alleged poverty and the West's staggering economic and military might could be related to skin color. She makes no bones about the collective psychic damage and self-hate so prevalent among Africans, and contrasts the political, social and intellectual apathy this has induced with the ignorance and arrogance of those of European descent.

Sound fiscal policies are critical for handling aid volatility as well as for making effective use of scaled-up aid and other flows. By easing resource constraints, these flows allow low-income countries (LICs) to increase spending aimed at enhancing growth and reducing poverty. Effective management of these policies, however, presents a host of macroeconomic challenges, many of them fiscal.