Europe Regional Economic Outlook, The European Recovery: Policy Recalibration and Sectoral Reallocation, October 2021

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

The world remains in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change, both of which underscore the need for increased global cooperation and dialogue. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and all regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population, most promising renewable energy potential, and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. In particular, the economic outlook points to divergences at three levels: between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions, within sub-Saharan Africa, and within countries. These divergences reflect the region’s slower vaccines rollout, more limited fiscal space, and regional disparities in resilience. The outlook remains extremely uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the path of the global pandemic and the regional vaccination effort, food price inflation, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. Looking ahead, sub-Saharan Africa’s potential remains undiminished. The region is at a critical juncture to implement bold transformative reforms to capitalize on this potential.

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

新冠疫情持续不退,气候变化似在加速,这两个问题依然困扰着我们的世界,也突显了全球加强合作与对话的必要性。为解决这些全球性问题,所有国家和地区都必须参与进来,而撒哈拉以南非洲尤其如此。从全世界来看,该地区目前的疫苗接种率最低,但可再生能源的前景与潜力最大,且其拥有关键的生态系统。撒哈拉以南非洲的经济预计将在2021年增长3.7%,在2022年增长3.8%。相比2020年的大幅收缩,这将是显著的改善,但与其他地区相比,撒哈拉以南非洲的复苏步伐仍是最慢的。特别是,经济前景在三个层面上出现分化:撒哈拉以南非洲与其他地区之间出现分化,撒哈拉以南非洲内部出现分化,以及各国内部出现分化。这些分化趋势反映了以下几个因素,即该地区疫苗推广步伐更慢,财政空间更为有限,以及该地区各国在经济韧性上的差异。前景依然极不确定,风险偏向下行。特别是,该地区的复苏进程取决于全球疫情走势、地区疫苗接种工作进展、食品价格通胀等因素,同时也极易受到全球经济活动和金融市场扰动的影响。展望未来,撒哈拉以南非洲的发展潜力仍未被削弱。该地区正处在一个重要关头,应大刀阔斧地推动重大改革,充分利用其发展潜力。

La planète reste aux prises avec la pandémie de COVID-19 et avec une accélération apparente des changements climatiques, qui toutes deux soulignent la nécessité de renforcer la coopération et le dialogue à l’échelle mondiale. Les solutions à ces défis mondiaux doivent mobiliser tous les pays et toutes les régions, surtout l’Afrique subsaharienne, qui possède la population la moins vaccinée au monde, un potentiel très prometteur en matière d’énergies renouvelables et des écosystèmes critiques. La croissance de l’Afrique subsaharienne devrait s’établir à 3,7 % en 2021 puis à 3,8 % en 2022. Cette reprise suit la forte contraction observée en 2020 et est la bienvenue, mais elle reste la plus lente parmi toutes les régions. En particulier, les perspectives économiques présentent des divergences à trois niveaux : entre l’Afrique subsaharienne et les autres régions, au sein de l’Afrique subsaharienne et au sein des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Ces divergences tiennent à des campagnes de vaccination plus lentes, à un espace budgétaire plus restreint et à des disparités régionales sur le plan de la résilience. Les perspectives demeurent extrêmement incertaines et risquent d’être révisées à la baisse. La reprise dépend notamment du rythme de la pandémie mondiale et de la campagne de vaccination dans la région, ainsi que de la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires, et est aussi exposée aux perturbations de l’activité mondiale et des marchés financiers. Le potentiel de l’Afrique subsaharienne reste intact. La région se trouve à un moment critique pour opérer des réformes audacieuses et porteuses de transformations afin d’exploiter ce potentiel.

Sub-Saharan Africa is still contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In the months since the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, the region has confronted a second coronavirus (COVID-19) wave that swiftly outpaced the scale and speed of the first. While this episode has eased for now, many countries are bracing for further waves, particularly as access to vaccines remains scant.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa

The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.

An economic recovery is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) but the pandemic still casts shadows on much of the region. The recovery was robust in the first quarter of 2021 but lost momentum in some countries in the second quarter, reflecting the rebound in COVID-19 cases. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2021, followed by a more moderate growth of 3 percent in 2022, but would not catch up with pre-pandemic trends in the medium term as persistent weakness in labor markets raises risks of scarring. Broadly favorable external conditions, high commodity prices, and pent-up demand support short-term growth, while monetary and fiscal policy reversals work in the other direction. Risks to the outlook are tilted downward. Main downside risks are the emergence of more transmissible and deadlier COVID-19 variants, tightening of global financial conditions, sovereign debt rollover risks, and social unrest as a year with heavy election schedule looms. Fiscal policy should allocate sufficient resources for health spending, including vaccination, and continue to support households and firms in a more targeted fashion while the pandemic persists, backed by credible assurances of medium-term debt sustainability to maintain access to finance. Monetary policy has started to address inflationary pressures but should continue to support economic activity insofar as the dynamics of inflation expectations permit. If rising inflation threatens to de-anchor inflation expectations, central banks should tighten monetary policy to signal a commitment to inflation targets and avoid persistent increases in inflation. Preemptive and decisive action should be accompanied with clear and transparent communication. Financial policy should shift from blanket support to targeted support of viable firms, to ensure that necessary labor and capital reallocations are not hindered. Supply-side policies should foster inclusive growth, including through progressive and growth-friendly tax reforms and measures to intensify climate change adaptation and mitigation.