We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications. Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of “composite reliability”, or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk. Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.

A comprehensively updated and reorganized new edition. The updates include comparative methods for improving reliability; methods for optimal allocation of limited resources to achieve a maximum risk reduction; methods for improving reliability at no extra cost and building reliability networks for engineering systems. Includes: A unique set of 46 generic principles for reducing technical risk Monte Carlo simulation algorithms for improving reliability and reducing risk Methods for setting reliability requirements based on the cost of failure New reliability measures based on a minimal separation of random events on a time interval Overstress reliability integral for determining the time to failure caused by overstress failure modes A powerful equation for determining the probability of failure controlled by defects in loaded components with complex shape Comparative methods for improving reliability which do not require reliability data Optimal allocation of limited resources to achieve a maximum risk reduction Improving system reliability based solely on a permutation of interchangeable components

Emphasises an introduction and explanation of the practical methods used in reliability, and risk studies with a discussion of their uses and limitations Offers basic and advanced methods in reliability analysis that are commonly used in daily practice Provides methods that address unique topics such as dependent failure analysis, importance analysis, and analysis of repairable systems Presents a comprehensive overview of modern probabilistic life assessment methods such as Bayesian estimation, system reliability analysis, and human reliability Includes many ends of chapter problems, a tools website with computational codes, along with a solutions manual to support course adoptions

“Reliability and Risk Issues in Large Scale Safety-critical Digital Control Systems” provides a comprehensive coverage of reliability issues and their corresponding countermeasures in the field of large-scale digital control systems, from the hardware and software in digital systems to the human operators who supervise the overall process of large-scale systems. Unlike other books which examine theories and issues in individual fields, this book reviews important problems and countermeasures across the fields of software reliability, software verification and validation, digital systems, human factors engineering and human reliability analysis. Divided into four sections dealing with software reliability, digital system reliability, human reliability and human operators in large-scale digital systems, the book offers insights from professional researchers in each specialized field in a diverse yet unified approach.

Hydraulic, hydrologic and water resources engineers have been concerned for a long time about failure phenomena. One of the major concerns is the definition of a failure event E, of its probability of occurrence PtE), and of the complementary notion of reliability. However, as the stochastic aspects of hydraulics and water resources engineering were developed, words such as "failure," "reliability," and "risk" took on different meanings for different specialists. For example, "risk" is defined in a Bayesian framework as the expected loss resulting from a precisely defined failure event, while according to the practice of stochastic hydraulics it is the probability of occurrence of a failure event. The need to standardize the various concepts and operational definitions generated numerous exciting discussions between the co-editors of this book during 1983-84 when L. Duckstein, under sponsorship of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (FRG), was working with E. Plate at the Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources of the University of Karlsruhe. After consulting with the Scientific Affairs Division of NATO, an organizing committee was formed. This comittee - J. Bernier (France), M. Benedini (Italy), S. Sorooshian (U. S. A. ), and co-directors L. Duckstein (U. S. A. ) and E. J. Plate (F. R. G. ) -- brought into being this NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI). Precisely stated, the purpose of this ASI was to present a tutorial overview of existing work in the broad area of reliability while also pointing out topics for further development.

The book introduces reliability and risk assessment techniques for the successful operation of interconnected power system grids. The focus is on control [C] and reliability [R] factors. C-factors emphasize on key performance indicators [KPIs] as qualitative performance and risk measures of control area fulfilling its own commitments, and helping other areas of interconnection through the interface of turbine governor control [TGC], automatic generation control [AGC] and economic dispatch calculation [EDC]. In contrast, R-factors introduce key reliability indices [KRIs] as quantitative performance and risk measures ensuring power system reliability and security. Also, discussed is a micro-grid operation with solar energy backup towards enhanced grid reliability with security.

This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

This unique treatment systematically interprets a spectrum of importance measures to provide a comprehensive overview of their applications in the areas of reliability, network, risk, mathematical programming, and optimization. Investigating the precise relationships among various importance measures, it describes how they are modelled and combined with other design tools to allow users to solve readily many real-world, large-scale decision-making problems. Presenting the state-of-the-art in network analysis, multistate systems, and application in modern systems, this book offers a clear and complete introduction to the topic. Through describing the reliability importance and the fundamentals, it covers advanced topics such as signature of coherent systems, multi-linear functions, and new interpretation of the mathematical programming problems. Key highlights: Generalizes the concepts behind importance measures (such as sensitivity and perturbation analysis, uncertainty analysis, mathematical programming, network designs), enabling readers to address large-scale problems within various fields effectively Covers a large range of importance measures, including those in binary coherent systems, binary monotone systems, multistate systems, continuum systems, repairable systems, as well as importance measures of pairs and groups of components Demonstrates numerical and practical applications of importance measures and the related methodologies, including risk analysis in nuclear power plants, cloud computing, software reliability and more Provides thorough comparisons, examples and case studies on relations of different importance measures, with conclusive results based on the authors’ own research Describes reliability design such as redundancy allocation, system upgrading and component assignment. This book will benefit researchers and practitioners interested in systems design, reliability, risk and optimization, statistics, maintenance, prognostics and operations. Readers can develop feasible approaches to solving various open-ended problems in their research and practical work. Software developers, IT analysts and reliability and safety engineers in nuclear, telecommunications, offshore and civil industries will also find the book useful.

For over 30 years, Reliability, Maintainability and Risk has been recognised as a leading text for reliability and maintenance professionals. Now in its seventh edition, the book has been updated to remain the first choice for professional engineers and students. The seventh edition incorporates new material on important topics including software failure, the latest safety legislation and standards, product liability, integrity of safety-related systems, as well as delivering an up-to-date review of the latest approaches to reliability modelling, including cutsec ranking. It is also supported by new detailed case studies on reliability and risk in practice.*The leading reliability reference for over 30 years*Covers all key aspects of reliability and maintenance management in an accessible way with minimal mathematics - ideal for hands-on applications*Four new chapters covering software failure, safety legislation, safety systems and new case studies on reliability and risk in practice

There is much specialist material written about different elements of managing risks of hazardous industries, such as hazard identification, risk analysis, and risk management. Managing Risk and Reliability of Process Plants provides a systematic and integrated coverage of all these elements in sufficient detail for the reader to be able to pursue more detailed study of particular elements or topics from a good appreciation of the whole field. The reader would use this book to keep up to date with new developments and, if they are new to the job, to learn more about the subject. The text includes a chapter of case studies and worked examples - including examples of risk assessments, which is consistent with the approach taken throughout the book of applying real-life scenarios and approaches.* Provides a source for reasonable understanding across the whole field of risk management and risk assessment. * Focuses on the how, what, and why of risk management using a consistent and well organized writing style interspersed with case studies, examples, exercises, as well as end matter.* Fills a need in the area of risk assessment and risk management in the process and chemical engineering industry as an essential multi-audience reference/resource tool, useful to managers and students.