Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty~nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision~making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective.

This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1991.

Lara Buchak sets out a new account of rational decision-making in the face of risk. She argues that the orthodox view (expected utility theory) is too narrow, and suggests an alternative, more permissive theory: one that allows individuals to pay attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario, and vindicates the ordinary decision-maker.

Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality presents original contributions to the areas of individual choice, experimental economics, operations and analysis, multiple criteria decision making, market uncertainty, game theory and social choice. The papers, which were presented at the FUR VI conference, are arranged to appear in order of increasing complexity of the decision environment or social context in which they situate themselves. The first section `Psychological Aspects of Risk-Bearing', considers choice at the purely individual level and for the most part, free of any specific economic or social context. The second section examines individual choice within the classical expected utility approach while the third section works from a perspective that includes non-expected utility preferences over lotteries. Section four, `Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Under Uncertainty', considers the more specialized but crucial context of uncertain choice involving tradeoffs between competing criteria -- a field which is becoming of increasing importance in applied decision analysis. The final two sections examine uncertain choice in social or group contexts.

This handbook describes the broad aspects of risk management involving scientific policy judgment, uncertainty analysis, perception considerations, statistical insights, and strategic thinking. This book presents all the important concepts to enable the reader to "see the big picture." This ability is extremely important - it allows the decision maker or strategic environmental planner to understand and cope with a wide variety of complex and interlinked pieces of information and data. The text presents environmental problems and, whenever applicable, the methodology required to reach a successful solution. Decisions and policies are examined. The book covers numerous objective and subjective components of environmental risk decision making. It details quantitative and comparative risk, and investigates the cost and feasibility of different decisions. Social pressures, safety, and political, religious, ethical, and psychological issues are addressed. How to evaluate the potential impact on the quality of life also is discussed. Any company doing risk assessment, risk management, or risk communication, as well as those doing environmental decision making will find this reference to be invaluable. It is also suitable as a text for courses in environmental management, environmental science, and risk assessment in the areas of risk management and strategic environmental planning.

Personal autonomy is often lauded as a key value in contemporary Western bioethics, and the claim that there is an important relationship between autonomy and rationality is often treated as an uncontroversial claim in this sphere. Yet, there is also considerable disagreement about how we should cash out the relationship between rationality and autonomy. In particular, it is unclear whether a rationalist view of autonomy can be compatible with legal judgments that enshrine a patient's right to refuse medical treatment, regardless of whether ". . . the reasons for making the choice are rational, irrational, unknown or even non-existent". In this book, I bring recent philosophical work on the nature of rationality to bear on the question of how we should understand autonomy in contemporary bioethics. In doing so, I develop a new framework for thinking about the concept, one that is grounded in an understanding of the different roles that rational beliefs and rational desires have to play in personal autonomy. Furthermore, the account outlined here allows for a deeper understanding of different form of controlling influence, and the relationship between our freedom to act, and our capacity to decide autonomously. I contrast my rationalist with other prominent accounts of autonomy in bioethics, and outline the revisionary implications it has for various practical questions in bioethics in which autonomy is a salient concern, including questions about the nature of informed consent and decision-making capacity.

Die Beiträge dieses Bandes, der aus dem ersten Symposium des ”Forum on Sustainable Technological Development in a Globalising World“ in Budapest hervorgegangen ist, widmen sich zwei Problemstellungen: Erstens der Möglichkeit rationaler Entscheidungen im Bereich technischer Entwicklung unter den Bedingungen von Ungewißheit (”uncertainty“), d.h. dem Verständnis von, dem Leben in und dem Umgang mit einer ”ungewissen“ Welt. Zweitens setzen sie sich mit den Perspektiven technischer Innovationen in einem sich wandelnden sozialen Umfeld auseinander, vorrangig aus der Perspektive ökologischer Nachhaltigkeit und ihrer sozialen Voraussetzungen. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei die Themen: Rationalität und Ungewißheit, Nachhaltige Technologien in einer sich wandelnden sozialen Umwelt, Technologiepolitik in einer sich globalisierenden Welt, Schlußfolgerungen für Politik und (universitäre) Bildung. Da die Autoren unterschiedliche Disziplinen der Natur-, Technik-, Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften sowie Politik und Wirtschaft repräsentieren, ergibt sich ein aufschlußreiches Panorama unterschiedlicher Sichten, Herangehensweisen, Prioritätensetzungen, Lösungsvorschläge und Erfahrungen.

This title was first published in 2000. By comparing how two local authorities deal with the risks involved in Germany's environmental waste policy, this text questions how organizations deal with making decisions in situations of risk in general. Using a combination of risk sociology and institutional theories of organization, Kamper examines how organizations develop institutional structures to cope with risk-taking decision-making. In doing so, he challenges the commonly-held view that the most important factor required when making risky decisions is rationality, and instead argues that the key is an ability to absorb uncertainty. The volume seeks to show how organizations develop institutional structures to cope with risk-taking which both absorbs uncertainty and allocates responsibility, and how an understanding of social structures is crucial to understanding how such decisions are made by organizations.

These Proceedings report the scientific results of the Summer Study on Plural Rationality and Interactive Decision Processes orga nized jointly by the System and Decision Sciences Program of the Inter national Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (located in Laxenburg, Austria) and the Hungarian Committee for Applied Systems Analysis. The Study, which was held in Sopron over the period 16-26 Augus·t 1984, had a very special character. Sixty-eight researchers from sixteen coun tr~es participated, most of them contributing papers or experiments. In addition many members of IIASA's Young Scientists Summer Program were present. All of these participants were heavily involved in dis cussions; discussions that were not limited to the allotted time but extended well into the evenings and nights. By design, the Study gathered specialists from many disciplines, from philosophy and cultur al anthropology, through decision theory, game theory and economics, to engineering and applied mathematics. A further element of diversity was the representation of several varieties of culture, from typically Western countries, through Middle and Eastern Europe, to the Far East.

Insurance is a concept, a technique, and an economic institution. It is a major tool of risk management, and plays an important role in the economic, social, and political life of all countries. Economic growth throughout the world has even expanded the role of insurance. Theory and Practice of Insurance aims to describe the significance of insurance institutions, the reasons they exist and how they function. The author emphasizes fundamental principles in risk and insurance, using an international frame of reference. This volume begins with an introduction to the concept of risk, then proceeds to cover insurance and its relationship to the economy; the principles of risk management and insurance; and the characteristics and performance of insurance companies.