Too many executives think risk management is strictly for technical specialists. In Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don’t Know, David Apgar challenges this misconception. The author explains how to raise the quality of your risk analysis—-thus enhancing your “risk IQ”—-by applying four simple rules: 1) Recognize which risks are learnable—and reduce their uncertainty by discovering more about them. 2) Identify risks you can learn about the fastest. The higher your learning speed, the more a project is worth pursuing. 3) Take on risky projects one at a time—learning about the risks underlying each before moving to the next. 4) Build networks of business partners, suppliers, and customers who can collectively manage new ventures’ risks by playing distinct roles. The book provides two tools for improving your risk IQ—the Risk Intelligence Audit and the Risk Scorecard—and concludes with a 10-step action plan for systematically raising your managerial and organizational risk IQ. Your reward? Smarter business decisions over time.

We must make judgments all the time when we can't be certain of the risks. Should we have that elective surgery? Trust the advice of our financial adviser? Take that new job we've been offered? How worried should we be about terrorist attacks? In this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher Dylan Evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our RQs in order to make better decisions every day. Evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person's RQ which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken by tens of thousands of people. His research has revealed that risk intelligence is quite different from IQ, and that the vast majority of us have quite poor risk intelligence. However, he did find some people who have very high RQs. So what makes the difference? Introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings, Evans identifies a key set of common errors in our thinking that most of us fall victim to and that undermine our risk intelligence, such as "ambiguity aversion," overconfidence in our knowledge, the fallacy of mind reading, and our attraction to worst-case scenarios. We are also regularly led astray by the ways in which information is provided to us. Citing a wide range of real-life examples--from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the financial crisis--Evans illustrates that sometimes our most trusted advisors, including the experts and analysts at the top of their disciplines, don't always give us the best advice when it comes to risk evaluation. Presenting his revolutionary test that allows readers to evaluate their own RQs, Evans introduces a number of simple techniques we can use to build our risk assessment powers and reports on the striking results he's seen in training people to develop their RQs. Both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, Risk Intelligence will fascinate all of those who are interested in how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.

A new book to help senior executives and boards get smart about risk management The ability of businesses to survive and thrive often requires unconventional thinking and calculated risk taking. The key is to make the right decisions—even under the most risky, uncertain, and turbulent conditions. In the new book, Surviving and Thriving in Uncertainty: Creating the Risk Intelligent Enterprise, authors Rick Funston and Steve Wagner suggest that effective risk taking is needed in order to innovate, stay competitive, and drive value creation. Based on their combined decades of experience as practitioners, consultants, and advisors to numerous business professionals throughout the world, Funston and Wagner discuss the adoption of 10 essential and practical skills, which will improve agility, resilience, and realize benefits: Challenging basic business assumptions can help identify "Black Swans" and provide first-mover advantage Defining the corporate risk appetite and risk tolerances can help reduce the risk of ruin. Anticipating potential causes of failure can improve chances of survival and success through improved preparedness. Factoring in velocity and momentum can improve speed of response and recovery. Verifying sources and the reliability of information can improve insights for decision making and thus decision quality. Taking a longer-term perspective can aid in identifying the potential unintended consequences of short-term decisions.

In this book, the study of strategic risk is not only for its control and mitigation using analytics and digital transformation in organizations, but also it is about the strategic risks that digital transformation can bring to organizations. Strategic risk control is one of the goals in creating intelligent organizations and at the same time it is part of the appetite for creating smarter organizations to support organizations' development. Knowledge that is created by data analytics and the capacity to operationalize that knowledge through digital transformation can produce potential sustainable competitive advantages.The core of the volume is connecting data analytics and artificial intelligence, risk management and digitalization to create strategic intelligence as the capacity of adaptation that organizations need to compete and to succeed. Strategic intelligence is a symbiotic work of artificial intelligence, business intelligence and competitive intelligence. Strategic risk is represented by the probability of having variations in the performance results of the organizations that can limit their capacity to maintain sustainable competitive advantages. There is an emphasis in the book about the conversion of models that support data analytics into actions to mitigate strategic risk based on digital transformation.This book reviews the steps that organizations have taken in using technology that connects the data analytics modeling process and digital operations, such as the shift from the use of statistical learning and machine learning for data analytics to the improvement and use of new technologies. The digitalization process is a potential opportunity for organizations however the results are not necessarily good for everyone. Hence, organizations implement strategic risk control in cloud computing, blockchain, artificial intelligence and create digital networks that are connected internally and externally to deal with internal and external customers, with suppliers and buyers, and with competitors and substitutes. The new risks appear once new knowledge emerges and is in use, but at the same time the new knowledge supports the initiatives to deal with risks arising from novel ways of competing and collaborating.

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. As you read this summary, you will learn that uncertainty and ambiguity are now an integral part of our modern world and that human beings are ill-adapted, uneducated and reluctant to deal with them. Nevertheless, the mastery of techniques and the adoption of certain states of mind make it possible to reverse this fatality: this is what "risk intelligence" allows. If its use is more or less innate depending on the individual, you will soon be able to determine your level, how it works and acquire the skills that could make you a true strategist. You will also learn : what is the use of risk intelligence? how to determine your own risk quotient; what the "darkened room" is; the biases of knowledge; the insanity that occurs in groups; how to think in numbers; how to quantify the probable; how to bet and win; how to be aware of one's knowledge. Risk intelligence can be defined as the ability to estimate the probability of an event occurring accurately, based on one's own knowledge. Like a light bulb in a dark room, it marks out the darkness. It is useful neither in total darkness nor in full light, but in the in-between where knowledge is fragmented. It is a component of the mind and as such, like IQ or other forms of intelligence, it can be developed. *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

The Turkish economy is very dynamic and growing at phenomenal speeds. For instance, Turkey’s first quarter GDP growth rate was 11 percent in 2011. This growth brings its own risks and benefits. The lessons learned from surviving and thriving in such an environment can be applied to supply chains in any country. Packed with interesting and timely examples from industries such as automotive, airline, and manufacturing, Risk Intelligent Supply Chains: How Leading Turkish Companies Thrive in the Age of Fragility presents strategic insights from various leading Turkish companies regarding their management of supply chain risks. Çağrı Haksöz brings the risk intelligent supply chain (RISC) concept to life for the first time. It answers the question of how to become a risk intelligent supply chain. He proposes the I-Quartet Model with four essential roles "Integrator, Inquirer, Improviser, and Ingenious," that any supply chain network must play to become risk intelligent. The book also presents never-before-published cases and practices of leading Turkish companies that thrive globally in the age of fragility with their supply chain risk intelligence. While providing real-life examples, the book also shares insights obtained in various scientific disciplines. It provides not only an industry focus but also details numerous industry approaches, analyzing their similarities and differences in a manner that allows each industry to learn from the other.

Turn cyber intelligence into meaningful business decisions and reduce losses from cyber events Cyber Intelligence-Driven Risk provides a solution to one of the most pressing issues that executives and risk managers face: How can we weave information security into our business decisions to minimize overall business risk? In today's complex digital landscape, business decisions and cyber event responses have implications for information security that high-level actors may be unable to foresee. What we need is a cybersecurity command center capable of delivering, not just data, but concise, meaningful interpretations that allow us to make informed decisions. Building, buying, or outsourcing a CI-DR™ program is the answer. In his work with executives at leading financial organizations and with the U.S. military, author Richard O. Moore III has tested and proven this next-level approach to Intelligence and Risk. This book is a guide to: Building, buying, or outsourcing a cyber intelligence–driven risk program Understanding the functional capabilities needed to sustain the program Using cyber intelligence to support Enterprise Risk Management Reducing loss from cyber events by building new organizational capacities Supporting mergers and acquisitions with predictive analytics Each function of a well-designed cyber intelligence-driven risk program can support informed business decisions in the era of increased complexity and emergent cyber threats.

Macro-level dynamics and modelling are well represented in the mainstream political risk literature. However, not many writings on the subject get their hands dirty in terms of revealing the hard, nuanced and practical work behind knowing what the issues might be for a specific foreign operation in a sensitive or volatile context, and how to plan for them. Political Risk Intelligence for Business Operations in Complex Environments provides international managers, and by extension their organisations, with a foundational understanding of political risk analysis and planning for on-the-ground operations in challenging times and places. This means having a fluid grasp of what political risk means and why it matters in the organisation’s context, and how relevant intelligence can be gathered and analysed to inform decisions and planning towards an operation’s socio-political resilience. The book explains: How and why political risk manifests and the forms it can take Company attitudes and operational attributes as a political risk variable Understanding the operational implications of socio-political dynamics and trends Stakeholder identification and analysis for informed engagement planning Scenario analysis to prepare for long-term contingencies and discontinuities Holistic, intelligence-driven political risk management planning Tactical intelligence exercises to maintain awareness and inform adaptation Intelligence management, collection and quality control Ethical considerations in political risk management Rather than being bound by conventional notions of risk, the book emphasises the dynamic relationship between a foreign operation and its host environment and milieu as a source of both challenges and opportunities to manage them. Concepts, frameworks and practices are rounded out with real-world examples and relevant lessons from the author’s experience as a political risk consultant.