This book tackles some modern trends and methods in the modelling of extreme data. Usually such data arise from random phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, air and water pollutants, extreme claim sizes, life spans, and maximum sizes of ecological populations. It provides the latest statistical methods to model these random phenomena to understand and predict them, thus allowing the avoidance of damage or at least minimizing it. In addition, this book sheds light on the mathematical and statistical theories on which applied modelling methods were built. Therefore, it has both an applied and theoretical orientation, and represents a valuable addition to existing literature on the modelling of extreme value data.

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with extreme (rare) events, which are sometimes reported as outliers. Certain textbooks encourage readers to remove outliers-in other words, to correct reality if it does not fit the model. Recognizing that any model is only an approximation of reality, statisticians are eager to extract information about unknown di

Review papers. 1. On the scholarly work of P.K. Bhattacharya / P. Hall and F.J. Samaniego. 2. The propensity score and its role in causal inference / C. Drake and T. Loux. 3. Recent tests for symmetry with multivariate and structured data: a review / S.G. Meintanis and J. Ngatchou-Wandji -- Papers on general nonparametric inference. 4. On robust versions of classical tests with dependent data / J. Jiang. 5. Density estimation by sampling from stationary continuous time parameter associated processes / G.G. Roussas and D. Bhattacharya. 6. A Short proof of the Feigin-Tweedie theorem on the existence of the mean functional of a Dirichlet process / J. Sethuraman. 7. Max-min Bernstein polynomial estimation of a discontinuity in distribution / K.-S. Song. 8. U-statistics based on higher-order spacings / D.D. Tung and S.R. Jammalamadaka. 9. Nonparametric models for non-Gaussian longitudinal data / N. Zhang, H.-G. Muller and J.-L. Wang -- Papers on aspects of linear or generalized linear models. 10. Better residuals / R. Beran. 11. The use of Peters-Belson regression in legal cases / E. Bura, J.L. Gastwirth and H. Hikawa. 12. On a hybrid approach to parametric and nonparametric regression / P. Burman and P. Chaudhuri. 13. Nonparametric regression models with integrated covariates / Z. Cai. 14. A dynamic test for misspecification of a linear model / M.P. McAssey and F. Hsieh. 15. The principal component decomposition of the basic martingale / W. Stute -- Papers on time series analysis. 16. Fast scatterplot smoothing using blockwise least squares fitting / A. Aue and T.C.M. Lee. 17. Some recent advances in semiparametric estimation of the GARCH model / J. Di and A. Gangopadhyay. 18. Extreme dependence in multivariate time series: a review / R. Sen and Z. Tan. 19. Dynamic mixed models for irregularly observed water quality data / R.H. Shumway -- Papers on asymptotic theory. 20. Asymptotic behavior of the kernel density estimators for nonstationary dependent random variables with binned data / J.-F. Lenain, M. Harel and M.L. Puri. 21. Convergence rates of an improved isotonic regression estimator / H. Mukerjee. 22. Asymptotic distribution of the smallest eigenvalue of Wishart(N, n) When N, n ' [symbol] such that N/n --> 0 / D. Paul

Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subje

It appears that we live in an age of disasters: the mighty Missis sippi and Missouri flood millions of acres, earthquakes hit Tokyo and California, airplanes crash due to mechanical failure and the seemingly ever increasing wind speeds make the storms more and more frightening. While all these may seem to be unexpected phenomena to the man on the street, they are actually happening according to well defined rules of science known as extreme value theory. We know that records must be broken in the future, so if a flood design is based on the worst case of the past then we are not really prepared against floods. Materials will fail due to fatigue, so if the body of an aircraft looks fine to the naked eye, it might still suddenly fail if the aircraft has been in operation over an extended period of time. Our theory has by now penetrated the so cial sciences, the medical profession, economics and even astronomy. We believe that our field has come of age. In or~er to fully utilize the great progress in the theory of extremes and its ever increasing acceptance in practice, an international conference was organized in which equal weight was given to theory and practice. This book is Volume I of the Proceedings of this conference. In selecting the papers for Volume lour guide was to have authoritative works with a large variety of coverage of both theory and practice.

This book provides an example of a thorough statistical treatment of ocean wave data in space and time. It demonstrates how the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space-time models can be applied to oceanographic processes such as significant wave height in order to describe dependence structures and uncertainties in the data. This monograph is a research book and it is partly cross-disciplinary. The methodology itself is firmly rooted in the statistical research tradition, based on probability theory and stochastic processes. However, that methodology has been applied to a problem in the field of physical oceanography, analyzing data for significant wave height, which is of crucial importance to ocean engineering disciplines. Indeed, the statistical properties of significant wave height are important for the design, construction and operation of ships and other marine and coastal structures. Furthermore, the book addresses the question of whether climate change has an effect of the ocean wave climate, and if so what that effect might be. Thus, this book is an important contribution to the ongoing debate on climate change, its implications and how to adapt to a changing climate, with a particular focus on the maritime industries and the marine environment. This book should be of value to anyone with an interest in the statistical modelling of environmental processes, and in particular to those with an interest in the ocean wave climate. It is written on a level that should be understandable to everyone with a basic background in statistics or elementary mathematics, and an introduction to some basic concepts is provided in the appendices for the uninitiated reader. The intended readership includes students and professionals involved in statistics, oceanography, ocean engineering, environmental research, climate sciences and risk assessment. Moreover, the book’s findings are relevant for various stakeholders in the maritime industries such as design offices, classification societies, ship owners, yards and operators, flag states and intergovernmental agencies such as the IMO.

In the spatial or spatio-temporal context, specifying the correct covariance function is fundamental to obtain efficient predictions, and to understand the underlying physical process of interest. This book focuses on covariance and variogram functions, their role in prediction, and appropriate choice of these functions in applications. Both recent and more established methods are illustrated to assess many common assumptions on these functions, such as, isotropy, separability, symmetry, and intrinsic correlation. After an extensive introduction to spatial methodology, the book details the effects of common covariance assumptions and addresses methods to assess the appropriateness of such assumptions for various data structures. Key features: An extensive introduction to spatial methodology including a survey of spatial covariance functions and their use in spatial prediction (kriging) is given. Explores methodology for assessing the appropriateness of assumptions on covariance functions in the spatial, spatio-temporal, multivariate spatial, and point pattern settings. Provides illustrations of all methods based on data and simulation experiments to demonstrate all methodology and guide to proper usage of all methods. Presents a brief survey of spatial and spatio-temporal models, highlighting the Gaussian case and the binary data setting, along with the different methodologies for estimation and model fitting for these two data structures. Discusses models that allow for anisotropic and nonseparable behaviour in covariance functions in the spatial, spatio-temporal and multivariate settings. Gives an introduction to point pattern models, including testing for randomness, and fitting regular and clustered point patterns. The importance and assessment of isotropy of point patterns is detailed. Statisticians, researchers, and data analysts working with spatial and space-time data will benefit from this book as well as will graduate students with a background in basic statistics following courses in engineering, quantitative ecology or atmospheric science.

Praise for the Third Edition “. . . an easy-to read introduction to survival analysis which covers the major concepts and techniques of the subject.” —Statistics in Medical Research Updated and expanded to reflect the latest developments, Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis, Fourth Edition continues to deliver a comprehensive introduction to the most commonly-used methods for analyzing survival data. Authored by a uniquely well-qualified author team, the Fourth Edition is a critically acclaimed guide to statistical methods with applications in clinical trials, epidemiology, areas of business, and the social sciences. The book features many real-world examples to illustrate applications within these various fields, although special consideration is given to the study of survival data in biomedical sciences. Emphasizing the latest research and providing the most up-to-date information regarding software applications in the field, Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis, Fourth Edition also includes: Marginal and random effect models for analyzing correlated censored or uncensored data Multiple types of two-sample and K-sample comparison analysis Updated treatment of parametric methods for regression model fitting with a new focus on accelerated failure time models Expanded coverage of the Cox proportional hazards model Exercises at the end of each chapter to deepen knowledge of the presented material Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis is an ideal text for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses on survival data analysis. The book is also an excellent resource for biomedical investigators, statisticians, and epidemiologists, as well as researchers in every field in which the analysis of survival data plays a role.

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Extreme Values and Financial Risk" that was published in JRFM

This book presents statistics and data science methods for risk analytics in quantitative finance and insurance. Part I covers the background, financial models, and data analytical methods for market risk, credit risk, and operational risk in financial instruments, as well as models of risk premium and insolvency in insurance contracts. Part II provides an overview of machine learning (including supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning), Monte Carlo simulation, and sequential analysis techniques for risk analytics. In Part III, the book offers a non-technical introduction to four key areas in financial technology: artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data analytics. Key Features: Provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of data science methods for financial and insurance risks. Unravels bandits, Markov decision processes, reinforcement learning, and their interconnections. Promotes sequential surveillance and predictive analytics for abrupt changes in risk factors. Introduces the ABCDs of FinTech: Artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, and big data analytics. Includes supplements and exercises to facilitate deeper comprehension.